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Its Power Rankings time! We’ve moved on another four weeks and though some things within the rankings remain the same, there have been some significant movements up and down the rankings as teams start to establish their identities in the 2019 season.
These rankings are based on a set of team efficiency ratings I have developed over the past five years, analysing the key metrics and weighting each one based on its impact on team wins and losses. This gives every team a rating out of 100% for their offense, defense and special teams, and an overall rating so we can benchmark each team’s relative set of performances.
Looking back at where we were four weeks ago and a couple of the early indicators from the rankings continue to be true. At the bottom end of the rankings, the Miami Dolphins continue to set a record pace of woefulness in their drive for the first overall pick. I’ve got team rankings going back to the 2007 season and the Dolphins’ -52.0% rating through week 8 is nearly 12 percentage points worse than the worst team I’ve ever graded, the 2009 Detroit Lions (-40.5%). Their performances on both sides of the ball have been some of the worst I’ve graded, but the -60.9% defense is the lowest in the past 13 seasons. It also turns out that my sunny suggestion that the Jets (ranked 31st after 4 weeks) were in a false position turned out to false as not only have they stayed as the second worst team in the NFL, but their overall grade has decreased from -43.3% to -46.3%, driven by the league’s lowest rated offense (+3.0%), the lowest I’ve ever recorded.
At the top of the rankings, it turned out the top two after four weeks were legit as well as both the New England Patriots (+58.0%) and San Francisco 49ers (+50.6%) retain their places at the top and by quite a distance. Both teams are currently tracking ahead of the best team I’ve ever graded, the 2007 Patriots (+42.2%). Both teams are being led by their rampant defenses, which are both tracking as the best I’ve ever graded and both are streets ahead of the rest of the NFL through Week 8.
Across the rest of the league and the biggest climbers from Weeks 4 to 8 are the New Orleans Saints, who have moved up a massive 16 places to 4th over the last month thanks to a 4-0 record and a +50.4% rating. The Colts have also had a solid October, going 3-0 with wins over the Chiefs, Texans and Broncos, moving up 11 places to 7th and a combined rating of +21.0%. There are five teams who have dropped more than 10 places over the last four weeks; the Steelers (-12), Chargers (-11), Giants (-10), Bears (-10) and Browns (-13). Those teams went a combined 3-14 in weeks 5-8 and a rating of -26.6%.
Fake Teams NFL Power Rankings
| Team | Games Played | Record | Total Rating | Total Rank | vs Wk 4 | Offense | Offense Rank | Defense | Defense Rank | Special Teams | Special Teams Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Games Played | Record | Total Rating | Total Rank | vs Wk 4 | Offense | Offense Rank | Defense | Defense Rank | Special Teams | Special Teams Rank |
| Patriots | 8 | 8-0 | 58.0% | 1 | - | 47.7% | 10 | 0.6% | 1 | 15.6% | 4 |
| 49ers | 7 | 7-0 | 50.6% | 2 | - | 50.0% | 6 | -3.4% | 2 | -7.7% | 23 |
| Vikings | 8 | 6-2 | 22.0% | 3 | +2 | 52.5% | 2 | -32.8% | 7 | -1.6% | 15 |
| Saints | 8 | 7-1 | 21.1% | 4 | +16 | 52.3% | 3 | -38.4% | 15 | 15.1% | 6 |
| Ravens | 7 | 5-2 | 19.2% | 5 | -1 | 52.3% | 4 | -37.9% | 14 | 18.5% | 3 |
| Cowboys | 7 | 4-3 | 18.8% | 6 | -3 | 56.1% | 1 | -31.6% | 5 | -26.8% | 32 |
| Colts | 7 | 5-2 | 5.9% | 7 | +11 | 42.5% | 13 | -40.5% | 17 | 10.7% | 7 |
| Seahawks | 8 | 6-2 | 5.7% | 8 | +3 | 46.9% | 11 | -42.8% | 21 | 3.1% | 10 |
| Eagles | 8 | 4-4 | 5.2% | 9 | +4 | 41.1% | 14 | -36.9% | 11 | 1.0% | 11 |
| Packers | 8 | 7-1 | 4.6% | 10 | +7 | 48.4% | 9 | -43.4% | 22 | -3.1% | 17 |
| Chiefs | 8 | 5-3 | 2.7% | 11 | -5 | 48.9% | 8 | -45.6% | 24 | -3.1% | 17 |
| Rams | 8 | 5-3 | 2.3% | 12 | -3 | 40.6% | 15 | -36.3% | 9 | -7.8% | 24 |
| Panthers | 7 | 4-3 | 2.2% | 13 | -6 | 28.8% | 24 | -36.4% | 10 | 32.1% | 1 |
| Bills | 7 | 5-2 | -0.2% | 14 | - | 35.4% | 20 | -32.7% | 6 | -9.5% | 26 |
| Steelers | 7 | 3-4 | -1.2% | 15 | -12 | 33.4% | 21 | -30.2% | 3 | -14.3% | 31 |
| Texans | 8 | 5-3 | -3.0% | 16 | +5 | 49.4% | 7 | -49.4% | 26 | -8.9% | 25 |
| Titans | 8 | 4-4 | -4.1% | 17 | -7 | 27.3% | 27 | -30.8% | 4 | -0.5% | 14 |
| Jaguars | 8 | 4-4 | -4.3% | 18 | +4 | 37.2% | 17 | -37.3% | 12 | -12.0% | 28 |
| Chargers | 8 | 3-5 | -5.9% | 19 | -11 | 38.4% | 16 | -42.0% | 18 | -5.2% | 21 |
| Raiders | 7 | 3-4 | -5.9% | 20 | +4 | 51.4% | 5 | -54.8% | 30 | -6.0% | 22 |
| Broncos | 8 | 2-6 | -8.2% | 21 | +4 | 30.2% | 23 | -34.2% | 8 | -10.4% | 27 |
| Giants | 8 | 2-6 | -10.4% | 22 | -10 | 28.8% | 25 | -42.5% | 20 | 15.6% | 4 |
| Cardinals | 8 | 3-4-1 | -12.7% | 23 | +5 | 36.6% | 18 | -50.6% | 27 | 9.9% | 8 |
| Bears | 7 | 3-4 | -13.1% | 24 | -10 | 27.5% | 26 | -37.7% | 13 | -4.2% | 19 |
| Buccaneers | 7 | 2-5 | -14.3% | 25 | -6 | 31.4% | 22 | -40.0% | 16 | -13.1% | 30 |
| Lions | 7 | 3-3-1 | -16.3% | 26 | -4 | 43.0% | 12 | -53.6% | 28 | -12.5% | 29 |
| Browns | 7 | 2-5 | -21.2% | 27 | -13 | 24.8% | 28 | -42.1% | 19 | -4.2% | 19 |
| Falcons | 8 | 1-7 | -24.8% | 28 | -2 | 36.6% | 18 | -57.8% | 31 | -1.6% | 15 |
| Redskins | 8 | 1-7 | -31.6% | 29 | +1 | 13.1% | 30 | -47.5% | 25 | 22.4% | 2 |
| Bengals | 8 | 0-8 | -39.8% | 30 | -1 | 18.9% | 29 | -53.9% | 29 | 0.5% | 12 |
| Jets | 7 | 1-6 | -46.3% | 31 | - | 3.0% | 32 | -43.6% | 23 | 0.0% | 13 |
| Dolphins | 7 | 0-7 | -52.0% | 32 | - | 6.6% | 31 | -60.9% | 32 | 3.6% | 9 |