It’s back people. The NFL season we’ve waited so long for is finally here and the 214 days since the Super Bowl will seem like a distant memory. Last season I introduced a set of rankings to FakeTeams.com that broke down multiple aspects of both the teams and individual players and I’m happy to say I’m bringing them back for 2018, with a few enhancements for fantasy purposes. Below is a quick run through of each of the rankings I’ll be producing and a little info on how they are derived and what you can learn from them.
Team RODS Rankings
The flagship RODS rankings are a set of statistical rankings that take over 30 statistical metrics and use them to produce efficiency grades for each team’s offense, defense and special teams, plus an overall team grade for each game. They are similar in feel to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but are an overall game grade rather than a build up from each individual play. The Jaguars were the top rated team of 2017, led by their league-leading defense and top-10 offense. You can read about the final 2017 rankings here, and below are the final standings from 2017.
I’ve graded every game back to the 2007 season, some 2816 games so use that deep database to reference how each team is performing against recent history. Below are the top rated teams and their final season grade from each season back to 2007.
Pass Defense rankings
Produced in a similar way to the quarterback index but looking at the stats in reverse, the pass defense rankings measure defensive efficiency against the pass in both ‘real’ footbal and fantasy scoring. With the fantasy angle, I split out defensive efficiency against receivers, running backs and tight ends, which should help you with your start/sits each week.
Each defense will also be broken down by the fantasy points conceded to quarterbacks, split by passing and rushing points conceded. Again this should benefit anyone looking for start/sit advice on their quarterbacks.
Rushing Offense & Defense Rankings
Another metric to measure the most efficient rushing offenses and defenses in the league, again in both real football and fantasy scoring terms to aid you with your start/sits each week.
My quarterback index is a measure of passing efficiency, ranking the league’s signal callers based on their performance from six different metrics. Its a more in-depth version of the passer rating calculation, which takes into account adjusted sack rate and yards per completion so is a more complete view of each player’s passing offense, rather than just the quarterback themselves. 2017 was the year of Drew Brees, who may not have had his best season from a pure counting stats point of view, but produced his third best season ever in terms of his quarterback index rating, and his best since 2011.
QB Wins/Fantasy Points Above Average & Replacement (WAA/WAR/FPAA/FPAR)
Another quarterback metric, this one compares each starting quarterback’s performance against both the league average player and any replacement players in terms of both wins and fantasy scoring. Challenged to produce such a metric by the Fake Teams editor, its an interesting metric to review as history from the last 10 years tells us that on average, 42 quarterbacks each year attempt at least 100 passes, but only 14 play all 16 games. With so many quarterbacks playing each season, being able to see how the league’s starters perform against both the league average and replacement players shows just how valuable even an average starting quarterback is to his team.
Here are 2017’s rankings:
Look out for the rankings dropping in throughout each week and here’s to a great 2018 season.