Week 1 may have taught us a few things, or did it? Is Baltimore really that good? Is Ryan Fitzpatrick legit? How much of Monday night’s Jets win was Sam Darnold being dominant vs. a bewildered Detroit team? Going into week 2, I have some conjectures of what I think I saw from certain teams and that lead many of my picks this week.
Week 2 Bold Picks
Houston Texans are a top 2 defense this week.
Justification: Projections have them 10th – 15th, they are facing Tennessee Titans who may be without Marcus Mariota, in addition, they looked good vs. a lethal New England offense. Two sacks from D.J. Reader, 2 QB hits from J.J. Watt, Tyrann Mathieu with a defended pass, I think this defense is going to be electric vs. Tennessee.
Davonta Freeman is a top five RB this week.
Justification: The injury slowed down his potential in week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he had the benefit of 9 days to heal since they played on Thursday. He says he’s 100% and he should not only have around 12 carries but he should see around 3-5 targets for receptions too. Zeke had 69 yards despite Dallas missing one of their top linemen so Carolina can be rushed against. I think Davonta will come out hungry to prove a lot after a very slow week 1, I’m bullish on him this week. Carolina was one of the top teams in terms of opposing teams scoring in red zone last year, a space where Davonta would be targeted.
Jimmy Garoppolo throws for the most TDs in his NFL career.
Justification: To be fair, that means 3 touchdowns. That’s still not something that is rather easy. 9 QBs did it last week. Detroit looks BAD and I’m sure they will be more prepared but they have to travel cross country and San Francisco will be hungry to get a win on the board. Jimmy knows a lot of eyes are on him now that he has suffered a loss. He generally threw more attempts while at home vs. on the road last year which benefits his chances to garnish some more TDs.
Jamison Crowder is a top 12 WR this week vs. Indianapolis Colts.
Justification: Jamison’s home vs. away stats last year:
Away: 25 Receptions, 266 yards, 10.6 Avg, 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Home: 41 Receptions, 523 yards, 12.8 Avg, 3 TDs, 0 fumbles.
He is currently being projected as the 29th best WR this week. There will be a fair amount of running as the Colts are below average for rushing defense but I think we are going to see Alex Smith air the ball out quite a bit for the home opener.
Jamison Crowder can break ankles pic.twitter.com/iET3ataVVU— Athlete Tweets™ (@AthleteTweetsO) October 2, 2016
Current line has Denver -1 vs. Oakland Raiders. I will take Denver -7 vs. Oakland Raiders.
JustificationThere are a few ways to look at this but here is the way I saw week 1. Denver beat a solid Seahawks team and Oakland was exposed against an equally tough Los Angeles Rams team. Denver’s defense is going to shut down a lot of opposing teams and I think Russel Wilson is much better at QB than Derek Carr. Additionally, I’ll add that I’m very bullish on Denver to have a good year so this would be another step in that process. Ignoring the 8 consecutive games they lost last year (as if one can ignore that) their winning games were won on average by 13.8 points. When they won, it was in a resounding fashion.
Which week 2 prediction is most likely not going to happen?
This poll is closed
Houston top 2 defense
Davonta Freeman top 5 RB
Jimmy G with a career game
Jamison Crowder is a top 12 WR
Denver -7 vs. the Raiders
Week 1 Recap
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers over/under is 45.5 points. Give me the under even at one less touchdown: 38.5 points.
Outcome: 42 total points (21 – 21 tie). I was off by 3.5 points but it was still under the line by 3.5 points. Grade (B)
No one on the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles offense is a top 5 in fantasy this week.
Outcome: Jay Ajayi had the best day at 68 rushing yards and 2 Touchdowns. On rushing only he was good but plenty of RB had receiving yards and as such he was the 12th best RB in fantasy terms. Grade (A)
Chicago Bears not only win against Green Bay (Packers favored at 7.5pts), Aaron Rodgers is not a top 10 QB this week.
Outcome: Aaron Rodgers went down with injury but rallied back and ended up the 5th best QB. The Packers won, but by one point, I had the right idea but it wasn’t good enough. Grade (C )
Phillip Rivers is the top QB this week.
Outcome: He finished 4th, most analysis had him outside the top 5 for QBs so it’s a partial win for me. I don’t think anyone had Ryan Fitzpatrick in their lineups. Grade (B)
Dalvin Cook is a top 3 fantasy RB this week.
Outcome: My worst prediction of the week he ended up 21st among RB with 40 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards no touchdowns and a lost fumble. Grade (D)
2018 Total Report card
A – 1
B – 2
C – 1
D – 1
Here is how I will be grading my Bold picks this year
A – The bold pick happened as I stated
B – The bold pick did NOT happened as stated but the idea behind it was there (example I predicted Jesse James would have 0 TDs and fewer than 20 yards in week 2, he had 27 yards, the general idea to avoid him in fantasy was present.
C – The bold pick did NOT happen and the overall feel for what occurred had you saying “meh”
D – The bold pick was nowhere near accurate