Fantasy Nascar: AAA 400 Drive for Autism

The rules I have implemented for myself are:
1.I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season.
2.Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations) I’m looking for value here.

My general format for my power rankings:
•Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finishes.
• #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15.
• Pick #5 is the dark horse.

Race Information
Race: AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Laps: 400
Date: May 6th
Venue: Dover International Speedway
2017 Winner: Jimmie Johnson (3:52:06)

Broadcast: Fox (Darrel Waltrip & Jeff Gordon)

Course:Dover International Speedway. Opened in 1969, the “Monster Mile” 1 mile oval concrete track has 24 degrees banking on the turns and 9 degrees on the straightway. This is the third Concrete track that racers face after Martinsville and Bristol. The oils that hold Asphalt together grow more liquid during races meaning that there is more adhesive friction through straightways and turns but less abrasive friction which is where Concrete courses excel. Essentially on a Concrete course if you lose your grip you lose all grip vs. Asphalt you can regrain your grip as you drift and sway. Control is very important on Concrete tracks.

Power Rankings
Favorites
1) Kyle Larson (2nd selection this season). 2nd place finishes in back to back years at Dover. His season has been up and down with two wrecks and two top five finishes across his last four tournaments.

2) Chase Elliott (3rd selection this year). 3rd here in 2016 and 7th here last year Chase is definitively the other favorite at Dover. Chase is also fresh off two consecutive top 3 finishes now.

High Risk/High Reward
3) Ryan Newman (2nd selection this year) back to back 4th place finishes by Ryan at Dover. Ryan has struggled to find his top tier status this year with only two top ten finishes in 11 finishes. He flirts with it finishing 10th or 11th three times.

4) Jimmie Johnson (2nd selection this year) with a win here last year Jimmie has the track record (so named the ‘Master of the Monster Mile’) but his 2018 campaign started off poorly before a bounce back where he has now finished in the top 10 in three of the last six races.

Dark Horse
5) Alex Bowman (2nd selection this season) is showing strength in courses where he can open up and has been on the upward trajectory improving as the season progresses.

2018 Stats
Favorites: average finish 11th (29th percentile)
High Risk/Reward: average finish 16th (43rd percentile)
Dark Horse: average finish 18th (49th percentile)