I try to stay away from giving picks in DFS because 1) I’m no expert and 2) I feel it takes away the fun if we’re just plug and chugging other experts lineups. Obviously we all want to win, but it’s way more fun doing so on your own decisions. The following is data on pitchers and hitters that is helpful for putting together the best lineup.
The first image for each slate is looking for value picks by comparing DraftKings salary to projected runs allowed based on Vegas lines. Next are some metrics from Statcast data. The data is filtered on the last 15 days.
Chase Anderson and Daniel Mengden stick out as nice values, but their Statcast data isn’t encouraging with low strikeout rates and high xwOBA values. Also interesting to see the high priced players as above-average value in Tanner Roark and Aaron Nola.
Jose Quintana stands out as a slam dunk. Sonny Gray and Wade LeBlanc are cheap options that stand out as great value. Alex Wood grades out well but should be chalky going against the Padres tonight.
On offense, we look at players who meet a set of parameters to find “hot” hitters against the handedness of today’s opposing pitcher. They are grouped by position, but keep in mind the position is based on MLB.com’s classification and do not align perfectly with DraftKings or FanDuel.
For updates to the graphics above and more fantasy baseball data, follow me on Twitter (@BrianCreagh).