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The Reds Are Far From the Worst Team in Baseball

Some simple and advanced stats to support my cause.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Ignore the fact that with a 7-23 record, they have one fewer win then Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals and relish in the fact that from here on out they will be a .500 team! This means there is fantasy gold for owners who want to buy in on players like Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo and Sal Romano

I will open my argument with this correlation, for anyone who has ever aggressively worked out preparing for a large physical challenge has likely run into the three stages, especially when you are starting from scratch.

Stage 1. Get off your couch and start preparing. To some this is the hardest part, you run into all sorts of barriers and mental challenges trying to set the right tone for the long journey ahead. You are pulling out the 5 lbs dumbbells and working the treadmill at, what can best be described as, a ‘jalk’ (a mix between jogging and walking).

Stage 2. The mid-way barriers. You’ve started the work, your body and mind are adapting to the initial work that you’ve been put in. You are sore, there are minor relapses as you head to the gym in pain and drained. You also start to feel a bit stronger, a bit clearer and a bit crisper each day.

Stage 3. You are in full swing, you have momentum, you are upping the weight or distance or intensity each day and your body has become well accustomed to the expectations and constant push.

Why did I bring this up? Well the Reds are in this battle, currently in stage 2.

Let’s dive into their 2018 season.

Stage 1. The 3-18 start. (March 29th – April 22nd). A gap where they won just 3 games in 21 starts being outscored 117 runs to 61. We can classify this as a severe case of lackadaisical behavior getting off the couch and starting to play. The scored more than 3 runs just 6 times over that span and were shut out 4 times.

Stage 2. Current. Since April 22nd they have gone 4-5 scoring 62 runs and allowing 50. This 4-5 record includes three games lost by one run. The growing pains are there but clearly this team is VASTLY improved over the previous 21 games. Some of this might be due to the changing of the guard as Jim Riggleman took over for Bryan Price on April 19th, some might just be regression (or progression) to the mean statistically speaking but I’m chalking it up to the Reds being a formidable team (that’s right I’m doubling down on my preseason bold prediction that we see 2 pitchers with double digit wins this year.

Stage 3. This is where the .500 team begins and this is where they are almost at.

Let’s look at some of the players over the last 2 weeks (all hitting over .250 avg):

  • Joey Votto (99% owned): 10 runs; 10 RBIs; .293 Avg; .525 OBP; .610SLG
  • Jose Peraza (55% owned): 12 runs; 8 RBIs; 3 SB; .364 Avg; .393 OBP; .491 SLG
  • Jesse Winker (7% owned): 6 runs; 5 RBIs; .378 Avg; .420 OBP; .533 SLG
  • Eugenio Suarez (57% owned): 3 runs; 10 RBIs; .360 Avg; .393 OBP; .600 SLG
  • Scooter Gennett (67% owned): 8 runs; 10 RBIs; .311 Avg; .380 OBP; .489 SLG
  • Scott Schebler (22% owned): 8 runs; 10 RBIs; .302 Avg; .348 OBP; .488 SLG
  • Alex Blandino (0% owned): 5 runs; 2 RBIs; .333 Avg; .389 OBP; .424 SLG

Takeaway: I will follow up on this later but Peraza and Winker are on the up swing with a likelihood we see Nick Senzel in July.

Now let’s look at pitchers over the last 2 weeks (all sub 3.5 ERA – including two starters – Tyler Mahle and Sal Romano):

  • Austin Brice (0% owned): 6.2IP; 0 ERA; 0.75 WHIP; 4.5 K/BB; 2 NSVH
  • Jared Hughes (0% owned): 9IP; 1 Win; 1ERA; 1 WHIP; 2.50 K/BB
  • Tyler Mahle (19% owned): 17.1 IP; 1 Win; 3.12 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; 3 K/BB
  • Sal Romano (1% owned): 10.2 IP; 1 Win; 2.53 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; 2 K/BB
  • Dylan Floro (0% owned): 8.2 IP; 1.04 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; 5.50 K/BB

Despite just 6 wins this season Tyler Mahle is up to 2 wins, Sal Romano has 1 win as does Luis Castillo. Tyler is pitching a robust 10.26 K/9, Luis got lit up in his most recent start against Minnesota but otherwise is a deep league option averaging 5.5k per game to 2.5 BB. In order of the likeliest to least likely to hit 10 wins:

Tyler Mahle

Pros: High K’s, Wins, low ERA; high FB rate
Cons: high number of hits (hurts WHIP)

Homer Bailey (3% owned)

Pros: Moderate ERA, pitches deep into games, good K’s
Cons: Can’t seem to win a game lately.

Luis Castillo (66% owned)

Pros: 6+ IP more often than not, high K’s,
Cons: high ERA, low wins, high GB rate

Sal Romano

Pros: Low ER, BUT low IP hurts ERA.
Cons: high BB rate; low K

Takeaways: Good promising young arms who are not splashy and can be grabbed for cheap. Especially true in 12+ team leagues.

Poll

How many Reds Pitchers get double digit wins?

This poll is closed

  • 27%
    pfffft 0!
    (10 votes)
  • 40%
    1.. barely
    (15 votes)
  • 32%
    2+
    (12 votes)
37 votes total Vote Now