Can we call this one “Mismatch Monday?” There sure are some lopsided pitching matchups tonight.
Elite Starter: Noah Syndergaard ($10,800) @ Miami Marlins
I’m not certain why Thor is $300 cheaper than Scherzer today, given his matchup. Scherzer draws the plucky Braves, and while the Bravos get a park downgrade in Washington, if i have to pay up today I prefer Thor in the spacious confines of Marlins Park. That Miami lineup isn’t scaring anyone.
Mid-Range Starter: Zack Godley ($8,400) @ San Francisco Giants
Godley cruised in his first outing against the Dodgers (7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1 ER, 1 W, 1 QS, 37 FDP). It’s 100% narrative, but he out-dueled Clayton Kershaw in that game. Today’s matchup is against southpaw Derek Holland, so I think he’ll be up for the challenge. Godley leaves the humidor for the spaciousness of AT&T Park, which is a positive. He opposes lefty Derek Holland, another positive as the Diamondbacks (namely Goldy and Pollock) should get to Holland with regularity. Godley is a slight road favorite at -119 if you’re into that sort of thing. I only mention it because I expected the line to be more in his favor. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer to lock.
Honorable mention: Garrett Richards ($8,300) @ Texas Rangers
Value Starter: Miles Mikolas ($6,000) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Mikolas faced the Brewers in Milwaukee in his first turn (5.2 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 SO, 4 ER, 1 W, 26 FDP). He gets the park upgrade in St. Louis, though. And he’ll have one less lefty bat to contend with, as Christian Yelich is on the DL. There are enough strikeouts to be had in this Brewers lineup that I feel safe about using Mikolas today. Even if he doesn’t grab the QS I think he can be in line for a win and do enough in the strikeout department to pay off his salary.
Honorable mention: Blake Lively ($6,200) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Elite Stack: Colorado Rockies vs. LHP Clayton Richard…AND Padres vs. Jon Gray
Obligatory “Coors game” stack. The Coors game didn’t pop yesterday. Who wants to be against that again? I imagine using low-priced Padres will be a popular call today for those who decide to pay up at starting pitcher. Some of these bats are priced like they aren’t in Coors! Manuel Margot ($2,200) and Jose Pirela ($2,700) should occupy the top two lineup spots, and neither is over 3K. That seems pretty funky to me, even though Rockies starter Jon Gray is a dude we all respect. Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) is far more competent against southpaws, but for a guy with his strength I am interested at that price at Coors Field. Not sure what happened to FanDuel pricing today…
Mid-Range Stack: New York Mets @ Jose Urena
The hottest team in baseball travels to Marlins Park today. Sure, the park is a downgrade, but this Mets team is riding high—especially with the return of leadoff man Michael Conforto ($3,800). There’s a lot of punch at the top of this lineup with Yoenis Cespedes ($3,800) and Jay Bruce ($3,200). After those three you can consider solid regular Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,000) or the nine-hole hitter Amed Rosario ($2,700). The Marlins bullpen picked up embattled youngster Trevor Richards by flinging five shutout innings yesterday, and perhaps that plays a negative role in today’s game since the pen also threw 5.1 innings the day prior.
Value Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs. LHP Cody Reed
The Phillies only managed three runs on Sunday after Saturday’s 20-run outburst. I’m going right back to them again today, though. The Reds are volunteering southpaw Cody Reed as tribute, as Reed will face eight right-handed hitters today. I’m hoping Rhys Hoskins ($4,900) isn’t too popular due to his high salary. There’s a lot of power/speed potential at the back-end of this lineup today with the re-entry of Scott Kingery ($3,000) into the six-hole. You could ignore the light-hitting Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana (who is weaker against LHP) and roll with a 4-5-6-7 stack.
Reed had 15 walks against 10 strikeouts to right-handed batters in his small sample in 2017, so there’s potential for a lot of damage if he’s handing out free passes again. Again, 2017 was a small sample (47.2 innings) but Reed allowed hard contact 40.6% of the time to righty hitters, too. It makes me interested in taking a chance on Ben Lively ($6,200) today if I’m working in some Colorado hitters. Lively at least had a shiny 5:1 K:BB ratio in his first start against the Mets on April 3, and managed 26 FDP without grabbing the win—something it seems like he has a solid chance at today.
Bryce Harper ($5,300) takes on Julio Teheran again today, and the only negative is the park downgrade in Washington. Still, Harper is sure to be among the most popular choices in the new Home Run Derby format on FanDuel, where salary is not a barrier to rostering him.
It wasn’t on my initial radar, but this is a pretty weak-looking Reds team. There’s some value with Gennett ($2,800) leading off perhaps, but I’m more inclined to take a shot on Lively in a GPP.
To pay up for pitcher, or to pay up for Coors? That is the question. I hope you will join me in being annoyed at feeling like you HAVE to have exposure to Coors. I’ll be happy when this Coors thing is off the slate, personally. I’ve discovered that I actually like a few of the cheaper pitchers to take darts on today, and I’m considering Richards alongside Godley as mid-tier options.
A lot of different ways to go today...good luck out there.