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O’Reilly Auto Parts 500: Power Rankings

Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson with a long history of success

By Mark Abell
NASCAR: STP 500 Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports

The rules I have implemented for myself are:

1.I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season.

2.Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations) I’m looking for value here.

My general format for my power rankings:

•Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finishes.

• #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15.

• Pick #5 is the dark horse.

Race Information

Race: O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

Laps: 334

Date: April 8th

Venue: Texas Motor Speedway

2017 Winner: Jimmie Johnson (3:24:18)

Broadcast: Fox (Darrel Waltrip & Jeff Gordon)

Course: Texas Motor Speedway. Located in Fort Worth, Texas, this 1.5 mile quad-oval asphalt track was built and opened in 1996. It features this race as well as one playoff race and has different banked turns on 1 and 2 (20 degrees) vs. 3 and 4 (24 degrees). Jimmie Johnson holds the most wins here (6).

Power Rankings

Favorites

1) Jimmie Johnson (2nd selection this year). Not only did he win last year but he was 4th here in 2016 and he won here in 2015. He’s not having the best 2018 season but clearly he’s more than comfortable at excelling in Texas.

2) Joey Logano (2nd selection this year). He was 3rd at Texas Motor Speedway last year, he was 3rdat Texas Motor Speedway in 2016 and in 2015, he was….4th. This season he only has one finish outside the top 10.

High Risk/Reward

3) Clint Bowyer ( 11th here last year and 38th after he did not finish in 2016. He’s not the flashy name but he’s top 10 in points right now and fresh off a win at Martinsville (that I picked!) so in essence I’m doubling down.

4) Chase Elliott (1st selection this year). I was surprised to see he’s landed inside the top 10 in just as many races as he’s finished above 30 this season. He is good at Texas though where he has top 10 finishes each of the last two seasons.

Dark Horse

5) Trevor Bayne (2nd selection this year). Since Daytona he has not finished inside the top 20 and that ends this week where he has finished 15th or better the last two years. I don’t think he’s a top 5 finish but he could crack the top ten.

2018 Stats

Favorites: Avg Finish 9th (25th percentile)

High Risk/High Reward 16th (44th percentile)

Dark Horse: 18th (49th percentile)