Valero Texas Open: Expert Picks

Tournament Information

Valero Texas Open

Date: April 19^th – 22^nd

Course: TPC San Antonio

Purse: $6.2MM ($1.1MM to winner)

FedEx points: 500 to winner

2017 Winner: Kevin Chappell (-12)

Course: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course. Built in 2010 by Pete Dye and designed by Greg Norman, this course’s fairways will run a bit tighter than the golfers are used to from other events. Trees line the holes providing a tunnel to guide through each hole. The course is designed to challenge but complement situations. Players going downhill with find the wind coming at them and on the flip side wind will aid their treks uphill. Given these amenities, it is a bit of a wildcard in terms of success.

Starting 4

Ryan Palmer. A mix of missed cuts and top 30 finishes has created an all or nothing result from Ryan. The good news is that Ryan is the only player on tour with top 10 finishes each of the last 3 years at TPC San Antonio (6^th in 2015, 4^th in 2016 and 6^th last year) which bodes well for an all or nothing scenario.

Kevin Chappell. Fresh off a win last year and 4^thplace finish in 2016, Kevin had back to back cuts recently at the Masters and RBC Heritage. The last 3 times in his career he had back to back missed cuts he rebounded with a top 30 finish. He’s 8^th in strokes gained tee to green and 14^th in strokes gained tee to green.

Brendan Steele. 8^th here in 2015 and 13^th in 2016 before finishing 62^nd last year. Prior to missing the cut at the Masters, Brendan had made the prior 10 cuts with only two finishes outside the top 20. 5^th in strokes gained off the tee, 15^th in strokes gained tee to green and 25^th in total strokes gained. He should be a top 5 favorite here.

Shawn Stefani. I am picking a golfer who recently had 6 consecutive missed cuts. Phew, now that I’ve led with the bad, let me turn to the positives. He finished in the top 25 each of the last two tournaments, he has top 30 finishes two of the last three years at Valero (he was looking good last year until he shot 4 over on Sunday)and he’s 41^ston the tour in strokes gained putting.

Bench 2

Harold Varner III. Harold has some struggles this season, 5 missed cuts in his last 10 tournaments with no finishes above 35^th place. He was 9^th here in 2016 and 40^th here last year.

Daniel Summerhays. 4^th here in 2015 and 13^th in 2016 and 58^th last year. He’s having a rough 2018 with 4 missed cuts in 8 tournaments and no finishes above 50 but I think that changes this weekend. There isn’t much to flaunt in his game outside of his putting (where he’s 39^th in strokes gained).

2018 Stats

Starting 4: Average finish 38^th (30^th percentile)

Bench 2: Average finish 39^th (30^th percentile)