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As we get ever closer to the draft, the buzz and hype are starting to go into overdrive and Josh Allen is starting to gain traction as not only being one of the top quarterback prospects, but maybe as the first overall pick. As the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire and when you look back at the history of Browns GM John Dorsey, he has a propensity for big-armed, mobile quarterbacks (Brett Favre, Patrick Mahomes), and Allen fits that bill. Considered a major boom or bust prospect, Allen has incredible potential but carries some pretty major red flags as well.
First, the positives on Josh Allen. His arm strength is off the charts and according to Jordan Palmer, who has been training Allen in the run up to the draft, he has the arm which all others will be measured in the future against. Allen also has prototypical build at 6-foot-5 and 235 lbs but with an athleticism rarely seen in someone his size. Comparisons to Cam Newton and Carson Wentz highlight his unique skill set, but also potential issues.
On the negative side, his major downside is his accuracy. In two seasons as a starter at Wyoming, Allen has never completed more than 56% of his passes and tries uses his arm to get him out of situations that he wouldn’t be in if his decision making was better. Allen also has struggled when facing top quality competition at the College level. In three games again Power-5 opponents, he has a 1-8 touchdown to interception ratio, though the quality of the team he played with at Wyoming has never allowed Allen to raise his game to the next level.
Allen’s College Stats
| Year | Games | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Games | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int |
| 2017 | 11 | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 16 | 6 |
| 2016 | 14 | 209 | 373 | 56 | 3203 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 28 | 15 |
| 2015 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 66.7 | 51 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 365 | 649 | 56.2 | 5066 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 44 | 21 |
Best Fantasy Fits
It’s widely acknowledged that Allen would benefit from sitting for at least a year, but assuming he’s going to have to play in year one, here are the landing spots where he’d have the most fantasy success.
- Cleveland Browns: Let’s assume the latest whispers are true and Allen is the guys at the top of the Browns’ draft board. If you consider the situation and teammates around him, Cleveland would actually be a good fit. The Browns have a young and talented receiving corp, including Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry and Corey Coleman, two top tier receiving backs in Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson and a couple of young tight ends in David Njoku and Seth DeValve. Not a bad set of weapons for a young quarterback to work with.
- Arizona Cardinals: I like this spot for Allen. The Cardinals offer less passing options than some of the other landing spots, but the ones they have are top quality. Larry Fitzgerald is back for one more go around and offers some of the safest hands the NFL has ever seen, and David Johnson is back from injury and is raring to get going again after a lost 2017 season. JJ Nelson offers a deep threat and Brice Butler coming over from Dallas is an intriguing addition as his 15 receptions in 2017 came at 21.1 yards per catch. Jermaine Gresham and Ricky Seals-Jones offer some further passing options at tight end.
- New York Giants: This landing spot is getting no buzz in mock drafts, but which young qb wouldn’t want to land with the Giants? A top receiving corp containing a returning Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram would give Allen plenty of opportunities for success, though the lack of any kind of running game and a perennially struggling offensive line, does put undue pressure on the passing game. Not ideal for a rookie with accuracy issues.