Early Aces: Legit or Mirage?

The season is on its way and fantasy owners are starting to get the itch to make some moves. They are putting in waiver claims, spending all of their FAAB money to take a flier on a new closer, or cutting a hitter they loved in their draft who is off to a slow start. You are not doing that though, right? You know better. You know that it is way too early in the season to make a judgement call on a player and how they will perform this year. So with that being said, let’s take a look at some early performers and make judgment calls based on how a player will perform based on a small sample size! All joking aside, let’s take a look at some lesser owned pitchers off to an amazing start and see who might be worth your investment or maybe worth ignoring. On with the show...

The Early Aces

Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) [ 0-1 0.69 ERA 0.85 WHIP 11 K 13 IP ]

Lopez was acquired by the White Sox as part of the deal that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals in 2016. He is only 0-1 due to a lack of run support as he has given up only two hits in both starts this season while allowing a combined one run. Granted these outings have been against the Blue Jays and Tigers, not exactly the cream of the crop. Lopez’s 0.69 ERA seems a bit misleading when compared to his 4.46 xFIP. However, he has managed a 26.7% soft contact rate combined with a 13.1% swinging strike rate. That is a recipe for success made evident by his .202 wOBA against. He makes batters swing and miss, and when they do make contact, it’s weak contact. Lopez’s .103 BABIP against definitely hints that he has been a little lucky so far this season and if you pair that with his 36.7% ground ball rate you may have something to be concerned about. The BABIP is going to go up, and if those balls are not on the ground he could be in for some trouble. The bottom line here is that Lopez is a young pitcher who has the tools to be a top of the line starter. Is he that guy today? No. But, his velocity is up almost two mph from last season and he has an elite ability to miss bats which is going to bail him out of a lot of situations. He is in for some growing pains against lineups that are not the Blue Jays or Tigers, but he is still getting better every day. So what should a fantasy owner do with Reynaldo Lopez? If he is on your waiver wire, pick him up if you have the roster space. If you own him, hold him, but if someone in your league thinks he is going to be a dominate starter all season and is willing to pay for that I would trade him in non-keeper formats.

Verdict: MIRAGE (but this kid is going to be good)

Jakob Junis (KC) [ 2-0 0.00 ERA 0.50 WHIP 9 K 14 IP ]

Junis is the hot topic, flavor of the week pitcher right now. Everyone is talking about this guy. By now he is likely off your waiver wire due to his almost no-hitter against the Mariners on Monday. Is the kid worth the hype though? In his 2-0 start Junis has amassed a 13.9% line drive rate while allowing an impressive 22% hard contact rate. Makes sense, less hard contact equals less line drives typically. Maybe he is getting lucky with men on base? Well for starters his walk rate so far is only 5.9% to go with a .154 wOBA against. Tough to be lucky with men on base when no one is on base. That leads us to the obvious stat in question. Junis has a .111 BABIP against so far this season. Will that go up? Sure, but I don’t think it is going to matter a whole lot. Junis is not going to have an ERA of zero (spoiler alert), but his walk rate is consistent with last season and his FIP is an even 3.00. He passes the eye test in every way and the only thing holding him back is pitching for the Royals. Make sure Junis is not on your waiver wire, if he is then Happy Holidays to you. If you own Junis, it would take a solid offer of a consistent yearly performer for me to part with Junis at this point in the season. Ride the wave and see what this kid can do.

Verdict: LEGIT

Andrew Triggs (OAK) [ 1-0 2.53 ERA 1.13 WHIP 13 K 10.2 IP ]

Triggs was claimed off waivers from the Orioles back in 2016 after bouncing around between the majors and minors with the Royals for years before that. He is off to a good start after a pedestrian 2017 campaign. Triggs’ 2.89 xFIP would indicate this could have a whiff of legitimacy to it. He carries a healthy 48.1% ground ball rate and a semi-sustainable .269 BABIP. Triggs has faced the Rangers and Angels so far this season, which are not the easiest matchups. In fact, the Angels are the best offense in baseball to this point. Either way, he has yet to pitch past 5 ¹⁄₃ innings so far and that will hurt him in the win department if he can’t stick in the game longer. Another red flag for me is his 48.1% hard hit rate, not too many (good) pitchers can survive that all season long. Bottom line here is that Triggs has a history of performing to a certain level and I don’t see enough to convince me that he has vastly improved in any particular area. Triggs’ swinging strike percentage is identical to what it has been for the last two seasons. Not only am I not comfortable recommending him to be “legit,” but I’m not sure I would feel comfortable streaming him in mixed leagues outside of weak opponent matchups. Sorry A’s fans.

Verdict: MIRAGE

Patrick Corbin (ARI) [ 2-0 2.45 ERA 0.93 WHIP 29 K 18 ¹⁄₃ IP ]

Patrick Corbin, the forgotten man in the Arizona rotation that is stacked with talent. I will simply open with this, he is legit. If he is available on your waiver wire for some reason you need to stop reading this and run to pick him up. Did you go? He was gone already wasn’t he? Are you sad? You should be. Corbin’s xFIP is currently 1.11 with a swinging strike rate of 17.9%. Bottom line here is that Corbin is actually better that the stats show so far this season. His ground ball rate is 62.2% and his line drive rate is 16.2%. I can’t imagine a scenario in which a pitcher held those rates and was not awesome. Is that ground ball rate going to continue? No, but his 25% HR/FB ratio so far will not continue either. Corbin is off to a fantastic start and is now aided by “The Humidor” at home. I am sad to say that I do not own as many shares of Patrick Corbin as I would like, but if you can convince someone in your league to execute an early trade, I would give it a shot here.

Verdict: LEGIT

Marco Estrada (TOR) [ 1-0 2.77 ERA 1.00 WHIP 9 K 13 IP ]

Marco Estrada had a very forgettable 2017, ending with a 4.98 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP. This left fantasy owners trigger shy about drafting the former All-Star this season. Estrada is looking sharp out of the gate so let’s take a look under the hood to see if the engine is actually running properly. A quick peek reveals a trifecta of red flags: a 5.54 FIP, 1.71 BABIP and a 2.08 HR/9. The numbers suggest he is getting very lucky and could explode at any minute. Is there something else that can explain away these red flags? Well Estrada is out of the gate sporting a career best 7.9% line drive rate against and a 42.1% ground ball rate. If those numbers were to hold the entire season he would surely be a success, but I get the feeling he is just playing with fire right now. Estrada’s swinging strike percentage has remained consistent with previous years and if the other stats normalize we are likely looking at a pitcher a little closer to his 4.63 xFIP than his 2.77 ERA. Keep tabs on the veteran right-hander though because if he can somehow keep his ground ball/line drive rate going in this new direction he could be quite useful in mixed leagues. For now I would say he is not a must-start in mixed leagues and would be fine dropping him for others on this list.

Verdict: MIRAGE

Mike Minor (TEX) [ 1-1 2.53 ERA 0.84 WHIP 12 K 10 ²⁄₃ IP ]

The often injured Minor signed with the Rangers in December looking for an everyday starting role. He earned one in spring training and is off to a seemingly good start. Minor’s pitch count wouldn’t allow him to pitch five innings in his first start against the Astros, but he did rebound to go six against the Blue Jays while striking out seven. Health is always the most important concern with Minor but I wouldn’t get too excited about his hot start regardless. He currently holds the worst ground ball rate among pitchers this year at 16.7%. That simply is not going to get it done over the course of a season. Minor’s 4.56 xFIP would indicate he is currently pitching above his head and his .174 BABIP confirms that things are likely to get worse from here on out for the lefty. It is also not a good sign that his velocity is down almost 2.2 mph from last season. All of these factors looked at together combined with Minor’s injury history give you a pitcher you should try and trade now while his value is at an early season peak. He has a solid history of pitching well so I’m sure with more innings the numbers will normalize into something useful if he stays healthy, but I am not going to be the one rostering him to find out.

Verdict: MIRAGE

Dylan Bundy (BAL) [ 0-1 1.35 ERA 0.95 WHIP 25 K 20 IP ]

Bundy looked like an ace to start last season too, posting a 2.89 ERA over the first two months. Then he turned into a pumpkin for the following three months earning a 5.61 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. But then, he finished the year as an ace with a 3.58 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the final months. What gives? Who is the real Dylan Bundy? What changed? His slider. He used it in the beginning of the year, forgot it existed halfway through, then remembered to throw it a bunch to end the season. It’s that simple. The good news is that Dylan Bundy is throwing is slider in 2018, and he now knows he has to. The basic metrics all line up with his performance so far. Bundy is carrying a 1.90 FIP with a .232 wOBA against this season to go with an impressive 11.25 K/9. His hard hit percentage is down from last season and his BABIP is well within the realm of normal. The only interesting thing is that batters seem to be pulling the ball more at 48.9%. This is likely just a side effect of Bundy throwing less fastballs, more change-ups, and mixing in way more sliders. Slower baseballs tend to be pulled more. This smells like a full on breakout and I am buying-in all the way. If you own him, congrats. If not, maybe try and make a play for him, but he may not come cheap unless you can try to mind flood your competition with thoughts of injury risk so he decides to sell him off. Not that I am condoning that kind of shenanigans, I would never...

Verdict: LEGIT

Secret Aces

These pitchers are performing above their perceived numbers and are candidates to pick up or buy low:

Sean Newcomb (ATL) [ 1-1 4.35 ERA 1.35 WHIP 15 K 10 ¹⁄₃ IP ]

The young Braves starter is going to be a stud, as soon as this year. His numbers do not give the right-hander justice so far this season. First of all, we will investigate the dreaded BAPIP stat. I know a lot of people do not care to use it, and I agree it does not show the whole picture but it can be used as a tool along with other indicators. Newcomb’s BABIP against so far is .375, which will certainly improve along with his 20% HR/FB rate. His xFIP is an impressive 1.95 that is compounded by strong ground ball rates (56%) and soft contact percentage (32%). The young kid is only going to get better and he is pitching well beyond what the numbers currently suggest. He also became only the third pitcher to throw at least six innings with at least nine strikeouts and no walks at Coors field last weekend. I keep getting questions about if you should drop Newcomb and people telling me how bad he is. No to both. I would pick him up if he is available in deep mixed leagues and seriously consider grabbing him in standard leagues if he has a strong showing against the Cubs this weekend.

Garrett Richards (LAA) [ 1-0 4.20 ERA 1.60 WHIP 19 K 15 IP ]

The former All-Star is already an ace. He is just on his way back from a right biceps strain and Tommy John surgery and looking to regain his form. The numbers look ugly so far, but please don’t be that guy and drop Richards. He has a 12.6% swinging strike rate to go with an amazing 57.9% ground ball rate. How anyone could have those numbers and not have outstanding stats is beyond me. Richards also sports a 26.3% hard contact rate. So what is the problem? He is walking too many people. His walk rate is sitting at an astounding 17.1% well above his career average of around 7%. Every other stat suggests Richards is still an ace, so I am willing to bet that he rights the ship in the walks department and turns it around it a big way the rest of the season.