MLB DFS picks for Wednesday, April 11

Welcome to my DFS slant for today. Here are a few things to know:

All pricing refers to FanDuel’s quoted prices ALL DAY format. 15 games on the docket today, first is an early one 1:10pm going until 10:10pm tonight. Robbie Ray is the most expensive ($9,700). It was a light day for hits yesterday, which means to me I think we are going to see a lot of runs, the cold weather also warming up in a number of areas should get the bats warm (pun intended).

Weather

-It looks like the sun is out and the cold is passing (for most areas).

-Afternoon games look clear, some rain could hit the midwest for the evening games.

Teams who had a big day offensively yesterday

• Los Angeles Angels (11 runs)

• Boston Red Sox (14 runs)

Teams who had a big day defensively yesterday

• Cleveland Indians (1 run)

• Boston Red Sox (1 run)

• Toronto Blue Jays (1 run)

• Washington Nationals (1 run)

• Philadelphia Phillies (1 run)

• Los Angeles Angels (1 run)

•Minnesota Twins (1 run)

• Los Angeles Dodgers (0 runs)

Individuals with big days yesterday

•Mookie Betts – 4 hits, HR, 4 RBI, 5 Runs

• Justin Bour – 2 HR, 4 RBIs

• Asbrubal Cabrera – 2HR

Individuals with no hits yesterday

• Francisco Lindor

• Carlos Correa

• Rafael Devers

• Yoenis Cespedes

• Edwin Encarnacion – Targeting today

• Joey Gallo – Targeting today

• Francisco Lindor

• Rhys Hoskins – Targeting today

• Manny Machado

• Gary Sanchez

• Justin Smoak

• Joey Votto

Pitching

Elite Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (9,300) vs. Detroit.

1. Equal parts Cleveland’s defense has (had to be) lights out effort lately and Detroit not being very good.

2. My expectations from Kluber are 7IP; 7k; 2ER or less and a win. Last start he had 8IP and 8K but a loss as Seattle won the match 2-1

3. He faced Detroit 6 times last year: 6+IP each time, 5+K and 2 ER or fewer each time.

Mid-Range Pitcher: Marco Estrada ($8,100) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Marco had a 7 IP, 3 ER, 2K effort against a tough NYY before lighting it up against Texas with 6IP, 7K and 1ER. Baltimore is much more like Texas than NYY.

Orioles are on a 2 game losing streak and scoring the 9^th fewest runs in the league.

He had decent success with 2 of his 3 outings against Baltimore last year.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Discount Pitcher: Matt Moore ($5,700) vs. Los Angeles Angels

1. They scored 14 runs yesterday, I think we see a much more diminished team today.

2. Matt Moore had a respectable 18 points in his first outing before a 3.1 inning, 5 ER effort vs. Toronto. I think he rebounds to a respectible 15 points range

Sample of hits

C/1B. Joey Gallo. His last 5 games (inclusive of an 0/4 effort yesterday) include 6 RBI’s. I think we could see a HR + 1-2 RBIs today.

2B. Greg Garcia. My value pick to offset some big bats elsewhere. When given at least 2 AB attempts this season he had 9 pts, all I need is 3 for this cost. Did I mention he’s leading off too?

3B. Matt Duffy. Batting a robust .353 against righties this year. My backup (more expensive pick) here was Alex Bregman, I think he homers today for the first time this season.

SS. Dansby Swanson. I was looking for at least one Atlanta player given the likelihood that AJ Cole gets knocked around by someone. This is a perfect fit.

OF. Rhys Hoskins. After an electric Monday where he had 2 walks and 3 RBI he went 0 for yesterday. Bounce. Back.

OF. Brian Goodwin is leading off for Washington against Brandon McCarthy. IF he can get on base think of the power coming behind him. He has averaged 6 pts per game over the last 5 – he’s only $2,500

OF. Jon Jay has averaged 9pts over his last 5 games. Sure he’s going against James Paxton but he is $2,600 and leading off for Kansas City.

Util. Edwin Encarnacion. Bat’s .300 against Jordan Zimmerman and he’s due for a HR. He had one 12 game drought and one 15 but usually he’s in for about a HR per week. It’s been 9 days since his last one.

Just a reminder so you know where I’m coming from

I’m not generally a big into the ‘stack against’ strategy because if that pitcher gets hot than you are sunk. Instead I like to employ two general strategies:

1.If I’m doing all day then I’m going heavy on the earlier games where I can guarantee someone is starting.

2.Regressing to the mean, if you are an above average player and you went 0 for whatever there is a good chance you are bouncing back. The same goes for players who were red hot, for this reason I’m avoiding Bryce Harper fresh off back to back great games. This also works for teams who just went off offensively or defensively. Obviously some elite players just hit night in and out, there are flaws to each strategy.