Staff Post: Outfielders to Avoid in 2018

Staff targets for the outfield dropped this morning. Don’t miss out. And Starting pitching week begins on Monday, so make sure to circle the proverbial wagons back around for that.

Here, though, we need to wrap up outfield week with our players to avoid. Find out who we don’t like as much as the consensus (for one reason or another) and feel free to haggle with us in the comments below.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox (Eddy Almaguer)

ADP: 41.1

In a redraft league, I can’t get behind Andrew Benintendi at 41st overall. I don’t think he will cross 25 home runs or 20 steals. He should hit for a strong average and score a ton of runs, but he has no standout tool at a position that demands them when you are this high up in ADP. Instead give me Lorenzo Cain, who should produce 85% of Benintendi (with upside for more in new park) about 45 picks later.

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks (Punk is Dead)

ADP: 64.7

With an ADP of 64, A.J. Pollock is being taken ahead of outfielders like Khris Davis and Andrew McCutchen, not to mention starting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole. Pollock is being drafted far too early. Sure, he had the great 2015. Since then, Pollock is hitting .264 with 16 home runs and 24 steals. He missed all but 12 games in 2016 and only played 112 games last season. Injuries are a huge concern but I think the production is concerning as well. Factor in the humidor in Arizona, which will reportedly zap power numbers in half, and Pollock is suddenly Cesar Hernandez. Hernandez is fine as a pick outside the top 200. If Pollock can’t get back to being a 35+ steals specialist I see no way he returns value at his current asking price.

Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Duvall, Reds (Joe Gentile)

ADP: 174.0

I want no part of Adam Duvall this year. With power being so abundant there is no reason to take a player who runs the risk of hitting below .250, has a low walk rate and doesn’t have elite power. Duvall could put up 30+ home runs, but he is likely to only put up somewhere around 25 home runs as well. With Jesse Winker breaking out last season, Duvall’s playing time could decrease this season. For the 13th round of a 12-team league, Duvall’s value will almost certainly not match his current ADP.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Brantley, Indians (Heath Capps)

ADP: 243.1

Brantley’s ADP is friendly, but we still want to avoid misses where we can. And maybe Brantley isn’t a total dud this year, but what is the ceiling for a guy with a career .131 ISO? Granted, his last two years have been marred by injuries, but that’s not exactly encouraging. Even in his heyday of 2013-2014, Brantley mustered a .178 ISO and a .170 ISO (hardly worth getting all hot and bothered over). Why not wait a few picks for the upside of Willie Calhoun? Or for the more powerful (and still speedy) Dexter Fowler? Sure, batting average is a category, too, but I just can’t find a way to get excited about Brantley. I’d rather have Fowler in that vicinity, or wait for upside plays like Victor Robles, Lewis Brinson, Mallex Smith, or Cameron Maybin. You can have at it, chasing Brantley. He may not even be healthy to begin the season. Play for right now, ladies and gents.

Be sure to check out our staff targets from this morning, and vote in the poll below!