Staff Post: First Basemen to Avoid in 2018

Earlier this morning we dropped our staff targets at first base. As is customary, we now welcome you to the yang portion of the broadcast. What follows are our “avoids” for 2018 at the first base position. We hope you enjoy it. Or, rather, enjoy watching your leaguemates draft these guys.

Staff First Basemen to Avoid in 2018

Edwin Encarnacion, Indians (Joe Gentile)

Edwin Encarnacion has been a fantasy stud for the past couple of years, but his age (35) may be catching up to him. All of his numbers were down last year, which is quite worrisome given his age. He will still be a fantasy-relevant first baseman in 2018, but I have him projected to finish outside the top 100 by season’s end. Encarnacion’s current ECR at FantasyPros is 38 overall, so no thanks!

Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

Eric Hosmer, ? (Eddy Almaguer)

It doesn’t matter where Eric Hosmer signs—you don’t want to draft him 68th overall, which is where his current NFBC ADP has him going. I won’t deny the man his consistency. He feels like a very solid 90/25/90 guy with a .280 average to match. You know who else might do that? Josh Bell, more than 100 picks later. Want the same counting stats with less average? Carlos Santana is there. Want the same profile but you’re okay taking a little bit less across the board? Yuli Gurriel is hanging past the 200th pick. Point is, Hosmer doesn’t give drafters any room for profit based on his ADP and his profile at this position is one of the least valuable in today’s game.

Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals (Punk is Dead)

Matt Carpenter is a fantasy expert darling. His underlying numbers and batted ball profile suggest he has 30+ homer upside with a .275/.380/.500 ish slash line. That’s cool, but I need to see results. In the two seasons since his 2016 breakout season, Carpenter has averaged 22 HRs and 68 RBIs with a .256 AVG. That’s not enough to make him the top 10 first baseman the rest of my colleagues here at Fake Teams seem to rank him as.

Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (Heath Capps)

I REALLY WANTED TO SAY ERIC HOSMER. Alas, Eddy beat me to the google doc. As such, I’ll list the guy I have zero interest in drafting. Where is the upside in latching yourself to Cabrera? His ECR of 73 at FantasyPros (the 11th first baseman) is anticipating a rebound that I am not certain is in store. Consider Miggy’s HR/FB rates over the last four seasons: 13.4%, 22.1%, 15.8%, 14.0%. The 22.1% rate from 2016 sticks out, right? That year, Cabrera rebounded from a poor 2015. There’s enough here over the last few years to discern that Father Time is taking its toll on Miggy. I wouldn’t bank on a HR/FB rate that bests Cabrera’s career average of 18.8%, and I’d wager that mark is much closer to 15% than 20% in 2018. Cabrera turns 35 in April and his strikeout rate was over the 20% threshold for the first time since 2003-2004, his first two years in the MLB. I much prefer Carlos Santana a solid 40 picks later.