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Projected Batting Averages Based on Batted Ball Data: Catchers

Which catchers overachieved and which underachieved in the batting average department based on last year’s batted ball data? Let’s find out!

By Joe Gentile
League Championship Series - Houston Astros v New York Yankees - Game Three Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Welcome back to Catcher Week! Here is your link to all of our content so far. Let us know in the comments or on Twitter if there is a player we haven’t discussed that you would like to hear about.

Before we get started, let me start off by saying these are not projections for 2018. This is a list that shows what a hitter’s projected batting average would be based on last year’s batted ball profile. There were nine different data points I had to calculate, including:

  • ground balls hit with soft contact
  • ground balls hit with medium contact
  • ground balls hit with hard contact
  • fly balls hit with soft contact
  • fly balls hit with medium contact
  • fly balls hit with hard contact
  • line drives hit with soft contact
  • line drives hit with medium contact
  • line drives hit with hard contact

Hopefully this list will give you an idea of who to trust and who to be leery of going into 2018 drafts. And if you have a problem with any of the projected stat lines don’t blame me, blame major league batted ball averages and math.

AB: At Bats

BBE: Batted Ball Events

P.AVG: Projected Batting Average

P.BABB: Projected Batting Average on Batted Balls

AVG: Real Batting Average

P.AVG-AVG: Projected Batting Average - Real Batting Average

Catcher’s Projected Batting Average

Overall Name AB BBE P.AVG P.BABB AVG P. AVG-AVG
Overall Name AB BBE P.AVG P.BABB AVG P. AVG-AVG
1 Buster Posey 494 428 0.295 0.341 0.320 -0.025
2 Yadier Molina 501 427 0.288 0.338 0.273 0.015
3 Tucker Barnhart 370 302 0.282 0.346 0.270 0.012
4 Kurt Suzuki 276 237 0.281 0.328 0.283 -0.002
5 Evan Gattis 300 250 0.278 0.333 0.263 0.015
6 Jonathan Lucroy 423 372 0.274 0.311 0.265 0.009
7 Austin Barnes 218 175 0.272 0.339 0.289 -0.017
8 Salvador Perez 471 376 0.271 0.339 0.268 0.003
9 Travis d'Arnaud 348 289 0.270 0.325 0.244 0.026
10 Jesus Sucre 176 141 0.270 0.337 0.256 0.014
11 Omar Narvaez 253 208 0.270 0.328 0.277 -0.007
12 James McCann 352 263 0.268 0.358 0.253 0.015
13 Wilson Ramos 208 172 0.267 0.323 0.260 0.007
14 Brian McCann 349 291 0.266 0.319 0.241 0.025
15 Christian Vazquez 324 260 0.265 0.331 0.290 -0.025
16 Josh Phegley 149 123 0.265 0.321 0.201 0.064
17 Kevan Smith 276 230 0.261 0.313 0.283 -0.022
18 Manny Pina 330 251 0.261 0.343 0.279 -0.018
19 Stephen Vogt 279 223 0.259 0.324 0.233 0.026
20 Tyler Flowers 317 235 0.257 0.347 0.281 -0.024
21 Derek Norris 179 131 0.256 0.350 0.201 0.055
22 Matt Wieters 422 328 0.253 0.326 0.225 0.028
23 Francisco Cervelli 265 200 0.253 0.335 0.249 0.004
24 Welington Castillo 341 244 0.253 0.353 0.282 -0.029
25 Gary Sanchez 471 351 0.253 0.339 0.278 -0.025
26 Drew Butera 163 122 0.250 0.334 0.227 0.023
27 Elias Diaz 188 150 0.250 0.313 0.223 0.027
28 A.J. Ellis 143 114 0.247 0.309 0.210 0.037
29 Russell Martin 307 224 0.245 0.336 0.221 0.024
30 Willson Contreras 377 279 0.244 0.329 0.276 -0.032
31 Jason Castro 356 248 0.243 0.348 0.242 0.001
32 Tony Wolters 229 174 0.242 0.319 0.240 0.002
33 Jett Bandy 169 118 0.240 0.343 0.207 0.033
34 Bruce Maxwell 219 156 0.239 0.336 0.237 0.002
35 Miguel Montero 185 138 0.238 0.319 0.216 0.022
36 Rene Rivera 218 148 0.237 0.350 0.252 -0.015
37 Nick Hundley 287 206 0.237 0.331 0.244 -0.007
38 John Hicks 173 122 0.232 0.329 0.266 -0.034
39 Chris Gimenez 186 126 0.232 0.342 0.220 0.012
40 Alex Avila 311 191 0.231 0.377 0.264 -0.033
41 Yasmani Grandal 438 308 0.231 0.329 0.247 -0.016
42 Chris Iannetta 272 185 0.228 0.335 0.254 -0.026
43 Jeff Mathis 186 125 0.226 0.337 0.215 0.011
44 Yan Gomes 341 242 0.226 0.318 0.232 -0.006
45 Robinson Chirinos 263 184 0.225 0.322 0.255 -0.030
46 Andrew Knapp 171 115 0.224 0.334 0.257 -0.033
47 Martin Maldonado 429 310 0.223 0.309 0.221 0.002
48 Austin Hedges 387 265 0.222 0.324 0.214 0.008
49 Roberto Perez 217 146 0.215 0.319 0.207 0.008
50 Mike Zunino 387 227 0.202 0.345 0.251 -0.049
51 Cameron Rupp 295 181 0.195 0.318 0.217 -0.022

Poll

Which catcher do you think will be closest to reaching their 2017 projected batting average in 2018?

This poll is closed

  • 0%
    Evan Gattis (P.AVG: .278, P.AVG-AVG: +.015)
    (0 votes)
  • 40%
    Buster Posey (P.AVG: .295, P.AVG-AVG: - .025)
    (6 votes)
  • 20%
    Gary Sanchez (P.AVG: .253, P.AVG-AVG: -.025)
    (3 votes)
  • 13%
    Willson Contreras (P.AVG: .244, P.AVG-AVG: -.032)
    (2 votes)
  • 26%
    Mike Zunino (P.AVG: .202, P.AVG-AVG: -.049)
    (4 votes)
15 votes total Vote Now

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