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Beat the Spread Challenge: Week 5

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An ugly Week 4 across the board hurt the collective

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

How to play:

Here is the way this game works. I will supply the Sunday and Monday matchups. With each matchup will be the line as of the last 24 hours. What you need to do is:

Step 1. Pick 3 teams who are NOT the favorites that you think will cover the spread
Step 2. Well…that’s it.

What you are trying to do, is select the three teams most likely to beat the spread. You will get the points POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE that each team earns vs. the Spread. Have I lost you yet? See the example below

Week 4 notable stats

  • 8 games netted positive amounts (vs. 7 in Week 3)
  • 6 games netted negative amounts (vs. 7 in Week 3)
  • Biggest variances: Tampa Bay with a -35; Miami with a -24

Beat the Spread Week 4

Week 4 Favorite Underdog Fav Under Outcome Feslen Pete Mark Salti Paddi Sixtus
Week 4 Favorite Underdog Fav Under Outcome Feslen Pete Mark Salti Paddi Sixtus
NE -7 New England Patriots Miami Dolphins 38 7 -24 -24
ATL -5.5 Atlanta Falcons Cincinnati Bengals 36 37 6.5 6.5
CHI -3 Chicago Bears Tampa Bay Bucaneers 48 10 -35 -35
DAL-3 Dallas Cowboys Detroit Lions 26 24 1 1
GB -9.5 Green Bay Packers Buffalo Bills 22 0 -12.5
PHI -4 Philadelphia Eagles Tennessee Titans 23 26 7
IND -1 Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans 34 37 4 4
JAX -7.5 Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets 31 12 -11.5 -11.5
Oak -2.5 Oakland Raiders Cleveland Browns 45 42 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
SEA -3 Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals 20 17 0 0
NO -3.5 New Orleans Saints New York Giants 33 18 -11.5 -11.5
LAC -10 Los Angeles Chargers San Francisco 49ers 29 27 8 8
PIT -3 Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens 14 26 15
KC -4.5 Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos 27 23 0.5 0.5
Total Week 4 -26.5 -5.5 -7.5 0 0 -23.5

Current Totals

  1. Paddi: 21 (omitted picks in Week 3 & 4 – reeeally continuing to wonder if there should be a 5 point penalty for missing a week. Make everyone walk the plank even during tough weeks)
  2. Feslen: 6.5 (His three weeks: -20.5pts, +53.5pts, -26.5pts)
  3. Salti: 1 (No picks in week four where all of us fell negative)
  4. Pete: -0.5 (just dangling in that plus minus territory)
  5. Mark: -13.5 (I really can’t seem to get this right
  6. Sixtus: -19 (The Dolphins -24 pick buried Sixtus in week 4)

Week 5

Beat the Spread Week 5

Week 5 Favorite Underdog
Week 5 Favorite Underdog
TEN -5 Tennessee Titans Buffalo Bills
CIN -5.5 Cincinnati Bengals Miami Dolphins
DET -1 Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers
BAL -3 Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns
KC -3 Kansas City Chiefs Jacksonville Jaguars
NYJ -1 New York Jets Denver Broncos
PIT -3.5 Pittsburgh Steelers Atlanta Falcons
CAR -6 Carolina Panthers New York Giants
LAC -5 Los Angeles Chargers Oakland Raiders
PHI -3 Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota Vikings
SF -4 San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals
LAR -7 Los Angeles Rams Seattle Seahawks
HOU -3.5 Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys
NO -6.5 New Orleans Saints Washington Redskins
Total Week 5

Recap

Since we have completed three weeks of this challenge, I’ll disclose three things I’ve learned:

  1. This is really hard..or maybe I just really suck at it
  2. Every week has shown a 20+ points swing somewhere and I would not have guessed where it came from on a given week. Because you know we all saw Mitchell Trubisky throwing 6 TDs.
  3. There is a minimal denominator. Among the teams who have had a 20+ point variance only the Patriots have repeated: LAR and Arizona in Week 2, New England Patriots and Detroit Lions; Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills in Week 3. New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins as well as Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4.

Idiom of the week

cash on the barrelhead – Immediate payment of service

History: money would have to be placed on the heads of the barrels (used as tables) when drinks were provided at a local tavern or bar to ensure payment could be made

Ex: I can’t use cash on the barrelhead until I can visit the ATM for the weekend’s festivities.