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Fantasy NASCAR: AAA Texas 500

A lot of favorites expected to succeed

NASCAR: AAA Texas 500 Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Brief Playoff overview: The first three races will taper the 16 eligible playoff drivers down to 12. The next three races bring the field down to 8. Three more races will bring it to the final four who have one race at Homestead-Miami to decide who the 2018 Monster Energy Cup Series Champion will be.

Race Information

Race: AAA Texas 500
Laps: 334
Date: November 4th
Venue: Texas Motor Speedway
2017 Winner: Kevin Harvick (3:29:52)
Broadcast: NBC (Rick Allen, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Steve Letarte)
Most Wins: Jimmie Johnson (5)


Texas Motor Speedway. Located in Fort Worth, Texas, this 1.5 mile quad-oval asphalt track was built and opened in 1996 and has enough capacity for over 180,000 people. It features this race as well as one regular season race and has different banked turns on 1 and 2 (20 degrees) vs. 3 and 4 (24 degrees).

NASCAR: AAA Texas 500 Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports


1) Kevin Harvick (8th selection this year). His last seven races at Texas have all been top 12 finishes. Five of his top 12 races in the playoffs have been top 12 finishes.

2) Chase Elliott (6th selection this year). Top 12 finishes for Chase the last three times at Texas. Top seven finishes in five of his seven playoff outings and arguably the best playoff racer so far.

High Risk/High Reward

3) Kyle Busch (7th selection this year). Ok so this is less high risk and reward. The only real risk would be he finished 19th in the playoffs here last year, but prior to that he has six top ten placings in his last eight races here. He has top four finishes in his last two races.

4) Brad Keselowski (7th selection this year). He finished 33rd here earlier this year but prior to that he had back to back top six finishes at Texas and he’s coming into Texas with back to back top six finishes at Kansas and Martinsville.

Dark Horse

5) Denny Hamlin (8th selection this year). Despite his last two races at Texas being 34th and 25th, Denny has top four finishes in three of his last four playoff races.

2018 Stats

Favorites: avg finish 11th (28th percentile)
High Risk/Reward: avg finish 16th place (41st percentile)
Dark Horse: avg finish 18th place (48th percentile)

The rules I have implemented for myself are:

  1. I will not pick a driver more than 10 times this season.
  2. Due to #1 these are “Power Rankings” (in quotations) I’m looking for value here.

My general format for my power rankings:

  • Top 2 picks will generally be the favorites, the ones who should be top 5 or top 10 finished
  • #3 and #4 will be your riskier picks, could be top 5 or bottom 15.
  • Pick #5 is the dark horse.


Which Car Manufacturer Wins?

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