Prediction 1: Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets over/under is 47, I’ll take under at 42.5.
Justification: The Jets are fresh off back to back 34+ point efforts so naturally they should be over right? Wrong! I see a regression to the mean and think we see a defensive low scoring match up here.
Prediction 2: For the first time this season Matthew Stafford throws as many (if not more) INTs than TDs
Justification: Miami has a solid secondary. They have forced interceptions in every game this season and have only allowed Tom Brady and Mitchell Trubisky to have more TDs to interceptions while shutting down (albeit somewhat weaker QBs) Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert on the TD to INT rate.
this the secondary you talkin about? pic.twitter.com/nGex2ie15k— dolphins (4-2) (@chvrlesss) October 16, 2018
Justification: The Giants were embarrassed last week and while they are not a great team, that kind of negative attention means they will come out hungry. Meanwhile, Atlanta beat Tampa Bay and is on the upswing but can easily get caught sleeping on this one.
Prediction 4: Ka’imi Fairbairn is currently being projected as the 20th best Kicker for Week 7, he will be a top 10 kicker.
Justification: At 69% owned, he’s actually already a top ten kicker but most don’t pay attention to their kickers after a while. He has the 2nd most makes this year, Jacksonville has given up the 3rd most points to kickers and with their defense amplified after a rough Week 6, we might see Houston settling for kicks.
Prediction 5: Alvin Kamara scores 10 points or less in most formats.
Justification: After opening the season with as much as 44 points in two weeks, 35 points and 17th points, it dropped off precipitously when Mark Ingram joined in week 5. The Saints had their bye week and now face potentially the toughest rush defense in the league. I think he has his 2nd weak fantasy performance of the season in as many games.
Week 5 Recap
Prediction 1: Philadelphia Eagles win by 10 (Spread is Phi -3) Outcome: Cue the Steve Miller
Band, Doo, doo, doo doo, Philadelphia was flying like an eagle on Thursday as they bounced back and beat Indianapolis 34 -13 which not only met my 10 point spread, it doubled it. (Grade A)
Prediction 2: Larry Fitzgerald gets his first TD of 2018 against Minnesota.
Outcome: Larry did NOT get a Touchdown, in fact Josh Rosen did not THROW a Touchdown. The Cardinals two TDs came from David Johnson rushing and a fumble return for a TD. Furthermore, he only caught 39 yards which is the 2nd most he’s caught this season but far from a respectable week fantasy wise (Grade D)
Prediction 3: New England vs. Kansas City – the over/under is 59, give me the over at 64.5
Outcome: Oh they scored at least 65 points. They scored at least 75 points. They scored at least 80 points…83 to be exact. This game was everything I thought it would be. (Grade A).
Prediction 4: Green Bay’s defense/special teams scores a TD
Outcome: There were no TDs from the Special Teams, there were two lost fumbles by San Francisco (both had no gain on them). There were a handful of kick returns and punt returns, the punts yielded nadda but one kick off by Ty Montgomery went for 66 yards (called back for Penalty) and another one went for 22 yards. (Grade C).
Prediction 5: Jamaal Charles rushes for 50+ yards on Sunday
Outcome: Woah, this was ugly. Five rushes for five yards. I whiffed hard on this one.
2018 Total Report card
A – 8
B – 5
C – 7
D – 10
Here is how I will be grading my Bold picks this year
A – The bold pick happened as I stated
B – The bold pick did NOT happened as stated but the idea behind it was there (example I predicted Jesse James would have 0 TDs and fewer than 20 yards in week 2, he had 27 yards, the general idea to avoid him in fantasy was present.
C – The bold pick did NOT happen and the overall feel for what occurred had you saying “meh”
D – The bold pick was nowhere near accurate