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Farmers Insurance Open: Key Stats and Picks

Brian Creagh gives key stats and picks for Farmers Insurance Open

PGA: Sentry Tournament of Champions Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

We nailed Jon Rahm last week and are at it again as Tiger Woods returns to the field at Torrey Pines. Key stats this week are:

Par 5 Scoring
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Birdie or Better%

Be sure to scroll past the table to look at my favorite picks

Farmers Key Data

Player Salary BoB Accuracy Distance Par 3 Scoring Par 4 Scoring Par 5 Scoring Scrambling SG:OTT SG:APR SG:ARG SG:PUTT zSUM Key Stats Z-Score
Player Salary BoB Accuracy Distance Par 3 Scoring Par 4 Scoring Par 5 Scoring Scrambling SG:OTT SG:APR SG:ARG SG:PUTT zSUM Key Stats Z-Score
Jon Rahm 11,800 31 55.81 297 3.02 3.93 4.38 65.67 1.15 0.05 0.96 0.36 12.1 7.46
Rickie Fowler 11,400 28 69.83 289 2.79 3.89 4.43 77.14 0.53 0.9 -0.25 0.54 16.58 7.37
Patrick Cantlay 9,500 26 57.56 300 3.02 4.03 4.39 55.56 1.01 -0.11 0.18 0.52 6.34 5.09
Lucas Glover 7,100 22 65.71 302 3.14 3.96 4.59 67.39 0.5 1.15 0.58 -1.09 6.28 4.51
Cameron Smith 8,200 28 66.23 295 3.07 3.87 4.55 63.24 0.27 0.39 -0.07 0.28 8.43 4.25
Billy Horschel 7,100 28 66.22 280 3.25 3.85 4.47 58.82 -0.12 0.38 0.88 0.27 5.75 4.01
Brian Harman 9,600 26 73.82 289 3.05 3.87 4.5 69.9 0.47 0.18 0.55 1.01 12.08 3.97
Ryan Palmer 7,300 27 62.5 315 3.09 3.88 4.54 69.77 0.35 0.27 0.83 -1.11 9.08 3.94
Ollie Schniederjans 8,500 27 66.67 306 3 3.97 4.55 56.19 0.29 0.32 0.44 0.38 8.3 3.79
Brendan Steele 7,800 26 67.54 305 3.03 3.9 4.56 60.29 1.03 -0.21 0.44 -0.12 8.67 3.7
Russell Knox 7,600 24 64.88 298 3.08 3.96 4.54 58.56 0.36 0.57 0.08 -0.64 4.32 3.63
Tony Finau 8,700 23 57.5 330 2.98 4.03 4.49 55.77 0.55 0.29 1.19 -0.07 8.73 3.57
Bryson DeChambeau 7,200 25 58.33 298 3.05 3.99 4.48 55.71 0.77 -0.09 0.58 -0.32 4.05 3.51
Chesson Hadley 6,800 27 59.74 302 2.81 3.99 4.57 57.94 0.49 0.1 1.15 0.65 10.25 3.43
Brandon Harkins 7,200 24 52.2 301 2.94 4.02 4.48 61.38 0.24 0.22 -0.11 0.56 5.18 3.12
Bud Cauley 7,900 24 67.5 301 2.99 3.97 4.7 59.81 0.58 0.51 0.89 0.95 9.49 2.99
J.J. Spaun 7,500 26 61.43 299 3.07 3.93 4.53 56.64 0.41 0.02 1.16 -0.27 5.87 2.95
Martin Laird 7,500 21 60.44 308 3.15 4 4.59 58.67 0.3 0.77 -0.35 -0.21 2.67 2.93
Marc Leishman 9,200 26 59.21 295 3.02 3.99 4.52 52.81 0.16 0.04 0.49 0.29 4.01 2.83
Luke List 6,800 25 53.42 318 3.05 4.03 4.61 56.49 0.95 -0.13 -0.42 -0.16 2.89 2.8
Kevin Streelman 7,500 19 68.75 296 3.05 3.95 4.55 73.4 0.74 0.39 0.67 -0.47 7.45 2.52
Keith Mitchell 6,900 23 50.32 312 3.07 4.06 4.59 54.81 0.47 0.29 -1.15 -0.57 -1.33 2.44
Kevin Tway 7,300 21 50 321 3.09 4.09 4.45 53.39 0.32 0.13 0.01 -0.47 0.52 2.33
Kyle Stanley 7,400 23 74.3 285 3.04 3.97 4.58 57.32 0.42 0.21 -0.72 0.2 3.4 2.3
Michael Thompson 6,900 22 61.43 302 3.25 4.08 4.38 34.88 -0.12 0.1 -0.89 -0.1 -5.13 2.1
Phil Mickelson 8,900 30 46.1 301 3.09 3.96 4.55 55.7 -0.63 0.06 1.69 0.8 4.85 2.06
Martin Piller 6,700 24 53.57 294 3.03 4.03 4.57 63.27 0.07 0.22 -0.71 -0.1 0.6 2.03
Hideki Matsuyama 10,800 25 65.12 284 2.86 3.97 4.67 58.82 0.18 0.27 1.72 -0.45 6.56 2.02
Alex Cejka 6,700 23 60.95 291 3.03 3.98 4.54 64.29 -0.22 0.44 0.18 0.18 4.09 1.93
Sean O'Hair 6,700 18 61.61 298 3 4.01 4.54 79.25 0.4 0.56 -0.3 -0.49 5 1.89
Peter Uihlein 7,700 26 54.46 303 3.05 3.95 4.58 60.23 0.11 -0.09 0.09 -0.65 2.21 1.77
Tyrone Van Aswegen 6,900 23 59.89 289 2.95 4.01 4.56 56.62 -0.22 0.46 0.3 -0.13 2.48 1.76
Nick Taylor 7,200 22 63.99 299 2.95 3.99 4.65 65.93 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.23 6.45 1.72
Si Woo Kim 7,600 21 64.67 290 3.11 4.07 4.66 51.43 0.7 0.21 0.22 -1.18 -2.36 1.65
Sam Burns 6,600 21 51.79 312 3.03 4.07 4.57 51.06 0.79 -0.07 -0.39 0.5 0.95 1.65
Tyler Duncan 6,500 22 69.39 294 3.15 3.96 4.6 55.45 0.55 -0.04 0.09 -0.1 2.2 1.54
Brice Garnett 6,900 21 67.86 296 3.15 4.02 4.46 57.89 0.57 -0.3 -0.1 -0.34 0.87 1.5
Harris English 7,400 21 55.95 304 3.11 4.05 4.52 57.02 -0.12 0.38 -0.36 0.13 0.2 1.47
Rory Sabbatini 7,000 20 56.75 290 3.08 4.08 4.5 57.61 -0.01 0.34 -0.3 -0.68 -2.51 1.47
Jhonattan Vegas 7,700 23 62.06 291 3.13 4 4.52 59.54 0.55 -0.35 0.9 0.51 3.35 1.45
Keegan Bradley 7,200 23 66.84 306 2.89 4 4.69 51.67 0.23 0.3 1.2 -1.4 3.96 1.41
Matt Jones 7,100 22 54.14 309 3.14 4 4.69 60 0.5 0.23 -0.32 -0.39 0.23 1.29
Xander Schauffele 8,100 23 61.27 301 3.11 4.05 4.6 54.39 0.88 -0.39 -0.76 0.39 -0.03 1.29
Patrick Rodgers 7,200 21 54.42 303 3.05 4.07 4.59 59.84 0.07 0.35 -1.25 0.51 -0.23 1.23
Aaron Wise 7,600 25 59.09 304 3.09 3.96 4.6 55.65 0.3 -0.28 -0.05 0.67 3.22 1.17
Stewart Cink 6,800 24 54.55 299 3.08 3.92 4.6 59.43 0.39 -0.29 0.64 0.15 3.43 1.09
Gary Woodland 8,600 24 63.93 312 3.04 3.99 4.58 50.59 0.23 -0.18 0.83 0.98 5.93 1.08
Emiliano Grillo 7,000 21 67.14 301 3.03 3.99 4.69 58.51 0.94 -0.1 -0.55 0.65 3.66 0.98
James Hahn 7,700 22 62.14 304 3.1 3.97 4.62 61.11 0.52 -0.13 0.66 -0.06 3.76 0.9
Brandt Snedeker 9,000 20 72.45 291 2.96 3.93 4.64 76.19 0.14 0.46 -1.43 0.78 6.58 0.85
Trey Mullinax 7,100 23 49.05 321 2.92 4.07 4.62 54.65 0.38 -0.16 -0.4 -0.07 1.31 0.73
Seamus Power 7,100 23 49.03 301 3.01 4.01 4.54 61.07 -0.03 -0.14 -0.08 0.74 2.06 0.71
Tom Hoge 7,200 24 61.81 294 2.98 3.97 4.62 64.63 0.26 -0.19 0.69 0.28 4.92 0.68
Sung Kang 7,100 23 58.44 293 3.02 4.04 4.64 59.54 -0.8 0.73 0 -0.14 0.18 0.6
John Huh 7,500 22 65.58 287 3.02 4.01 4.57 60 0.24 -0.15 -0.43 0.11 0.93 0.55
Andrew Putnam 7,000 22 53.57 297 2.93 4.06 4.59 57.94 -0.1 0.14 0.55 -0.13 1.2 0.53
Chris Kirk 7,500 22 62.29 291 2.99 4 4.64 64.71 -0.2 0.4 0.84 -0.19 3.41 0.51
Tom Lovelady 6,700 21 47.86 313 3.11 4.05 4.64 56.56 0.42 -0.12 0.05 0.08 -0.65 0.38
Maverick McNealy 6,900 23 57.14 308 3.17 4.13 4.41 56.9 0.35 -0.96 -0.98 0.59 -2.36 0.37
Stephan Jaeger 7,000 19 57.71 302 3.15 4.02 4.58 55.64 0.34 0.03 0.3 -0.2 -0.64 0.34
Nate Lashley 7,100 19 59.64 297 2.98 4 4.74 63.48 0.45 0.35 -0.07 -0.54 1.36 0.32
Corey Conners 6,600 20 61.48 303 3.01 4.04 4.61 60.99 0.55 -0.15 0.08 -0.27 1.45 0.22
Morgan Hoffmann 6,600 21 70.41 307 3.18 4.01 4.73 60 0.11 0.36 -1.2 -1.55 -2.77 0.19
Michael Kim 7,100 22 53.57 291 3.09 4.13 4.5 58.72 -0.98 0.48 -1.25 -0.3 -5.71 0.14
Sam Ryder 6,600 20 65.36 302 3.08 4.02 4.65 53.19 0.57 -0.17 0.12 -1.01 -1.05 0.11
Lanto Griffin 6,500 21 50.38 288 3.08 4.07 4.55 55.66 -0.03 -0.06 -0.27 -0.39 -4.53 0.07
Anirban Lahiri 7,600 24 63.84 302 2.92 3.98 4.66 58.14 -0.22 0.05 -0.6 0.99 4.25 0.03
Adam Schenk 6,600 19 57.45 297 3.04 4.04 4.64 61.42 0.31 0.09 -0.13 0.11 0.23 0.03
Andrew Landry 7,200 23 59.52 297 3 3.95 4.66 61.95 0.5 -0.46 0.5 0.15 3.4 -0.08
Martin Flores 6,600 24 50.68 299 3.02 4 4.71 59.38 0.05 -0.12 0.45 0.35 1.17 -0.1
Bill Haas 7,000 19 55.24 301 3.07 4.08 4.59 58.62 -0.39 0.45 0.79 -0.59 -1.07 -0.11
Patrick Reed 8,400 20 46.7 294 3.04 4.04 4.76 59.76 -0.06 0.62 1.18 -1.2 -2.4 -0.12
Beau Hossler 7,300 22 56.04 294 3.02 4.01 4.65 57.72 -0.12 0.12 -0.48 0.54 -0.05 -0.14
David Lingmerth 7,400 24 70.88 288 3.12 3.96 4.59 58.54 -0.07 -0.33 0.19 0.68 2.44 -0.19
Ethan Tracy 6,500 22 57.14 294 3.05 4.04 4.74 57.6 0.11 0.15 -0.43 0.26 -1.34 -0.24
Talor Gooch 7,000 20 56.32 300 3.05 3.99 4.65 69.75 0.04 0.05 -0.07 0.49 2.55 -0.44
Smylie Kaufman 7,300 22 43.21 298 3.26 4.12 4.47 49.65 -0.53 -0.28 -0.05 -0.01 -7.82 -0.54
Aaron Baddeley 7,300 20 49.21 292 3.07 4.02 4.74 61.98 -0.39 0.66 0.23 -0.15 -1.91 -0.55
Johnson Wagner 6,800 21 60.92 277 2.94 4.03 4.72 64.71 0.2 0.04 -0.16 0.52 0.58 -0.56
Conrad Shindler 7,000 22 60.53 288 2.92 4.06 4.63 61.74 -0.07 -0.14 0.06 0.16 0.6 -0.58
Danny Lee 6,700 24 66.17 284 2.93 4.09 4.76 46.6 -0.1 -0.07 0.13 -1.37 -4.57 -0.6
Scott Stallings 7,400 22 48.98 303 2.99 4.08 4.55 59.32 -0.06 -0.39 0.65 -0.13 -0.62 -0.61
Grayson Murray 8,000 26 56.69 305 3.05 4.04 4.85 52.07 0.15 -0.19 0.46 0.63 0.49 -0.67
Jamie Lovemark 7,400 22 62.3 306 3.29 3.96 4.63 53.47 -0.21 -0.07 -0.53 0.7 -1.3 -0.7
Richy Werenski 7,300 20 61.81 294 3.11 4.04 4.66 56.44 -0.44 0.38 -0.28 -0.36 -2.93 -0.78
Hunter Mahan 7,000 20 62.5 298 3.01 3.96 4.71 64.42 0.5 -0.33 0.31 0.26 2.99 -0.96
Charley Hoffman 7,200 19 54.76 304 3.04 4.03 4.72 48.39 0.7 -0.26 0.71 0.32 -0.59 -0.96
Joel Dahmen 7,100 22 64.6 294 3.09 4 4.74 58.39 0.15 -0.17 -0.66 -0.24 -2.05 -1.1
Peter Malnati 6,900 22 59.18 286 3.08 3.99 4.72 58.27 -0.53 0.14 0.21 0.65 -0.68 -1.33
Brett Stegmaier 6,500 20 57.14 292 2.97 4.06 4.63 62.86 -0.49 0.12 0.21 0.27 -0.25 -1.34
Bronson Burgoon 6,900 21 65.97 300 2.99 4.05 4.66 54.74 0.05 -0.35 -0.14 -0.18 -0.82 -1.38
Zac Blair 6,700 18 59.77 274 3.03 4.05 4.72 62.5 -0.31 0.49 0.45 -0.06 -2.58 -1.42
Whee Kim 6,700 21 63.49 292 3.09 3.99 4.71 62.73 -0.4 0.06 -1.13 0.99 -0.53 -1.51
Jonathan Byrd 6,600 22 51.26 288 2.99 4.06 4.63 54.64 -0.73 -0.01 0.35 0.1 -3.18 -1.56
Luke Donald 6,800 20 59.52 307 3 4.04 4.63 45.16 -0.1 -0.32 0.68 0.29 -0.47 -1.57
David Hearn 6,500 20 68.07 283 3.04 4.03 4.68 59.57 -0.08 -0.19 0.53 -0.09 -0.81 -1.57
Nick Watney 6,800 22 54.76 303 3.13 4.02 4.8 54.93 -0.08 -0.06 -0.85 0.18 -3.95 -1.68
K.J. Choi 6,700 18 75.6 278 3.04 4.11 4.76 56.76 0.09 0.09 -0.79 0.46 -3.1 -1.78
Derek Fathauer 7,100 22 47.5 287 3.06 4.06 4.66 57.35 -0.92 0.11 0.47 0.03 -4.6 -1.96
Shawn Stefani 6,600 19 50.34 295 3.07 4.05 4.72 58.7 -0.09 -0.14 0.19 0.15 -3.51 -2.08
Kelly Kraft 6,800 20 60.06 293 2.97 4.08 4.72 57.48 -0.55 0.1 0.27 0.37 -1.34 -2.15
Cameron Tringale 7,200 21 56.46 289 3.07 4.09 4.65 50.44 -0.78 -0.02 0.47 -0.41 -5.76 -2.17
Jonathan Randolph 6,700 20 58.82 285 3.06 3.99 4.72 66.37 -0.38 -0.11 -0.13 0.74 -0.71 -2.32
Camilo Villegas 6,600 19 54.57 287 3.01 4.11 4.74 56.71 -0.62 0.24 -0.66 -0.46 -6.86 -2.33
Nicholas Lindheim 7,000 21 60.71 293 3.01 3.97 4.78 54.62 -0.21 -0.23 -0.45 1.02 -0.57 -2.36
Rob Oppenheim 6,700 20 59.42 277 2.92 4.05 4.68 61.9 -0.5 -0.17 0.6 -0.34 -2.37 -2.38
Troy Merritt 6,600 19 58.84 297 3.1 4.06 4.66 52.67 0.12 -0.58 -0.23 0.03 -4.65 -2.4
Jim Herman 6,700 18 68.8 296 3.14 4.14 4.63 44.34 0.18 -0.64 -0.81 0.14 -6.99 -2.46
Denny McCarthy 6,900 17 53.33 292 3.1 4.09 4.63 58.76 -0.45 -0.1 -0.92 0.2 -6.51 -2.68
Robert Garrigus 6,600 20 50.45 307 3.11 4.04 4.76 57.41 -0.13 -0.31 0.34 -0.81 -4.9 -2.79
J.J. Henry 6,900 15 67.58 293 3.02 4.06 4.7 67.19 0.3 -0.33 -0.08 -0.75 -2.41 -2.93
Cody Gribble 7,000 19 55.8 307 3.03 4.12 4.8 50 0.07 -0.39 -0.92 0.38 -5.64 -3.01
J.B. Holmes 7,400 17 61.9 323 3.29 4.05 5.27 43.24 1.37 0.2 -1.31 -0.53 -8.4 -3.14
Adam Hadwin 7,400 20 66.2 276 3.08 4.02 4.79 46.73 -0.11 -0.43 -0.08 0.24 -5.93 -3.17
Retief Goosen 6,900 20 57.65 294 3 4.03 4.79 57.95 -0.13 -0.42 0.11 -0.08 -3.21 -3.18
Matt Every 6,500 20 52.27 293 3.1 4.09 4.64 52.27 -0.92 -0.31 0.02 -0.18 -7.42 -3.36
Kyle Thompson 6,900 18 63.33 285 3.27 4.08 4.76 49.47 0 -0.43 -0.34 -1.18 -11.19 -3.37
Chad Campbell 7,200 15 66.77 291 3.2 4.08 4.76 56.91 -0.01 -0.08 0.21 -1.1 -7.48 -3.57
Abraham Ancer 7,000 19 60.36 291 3.01 4.02 4.77 62.5 -0.21 -0.4 0.28 -0.26 -2.86 -3.57
Rod Pampling 6,700 16 67.62 300 3.15 4.13 4.77 62.37 0.2 -0.55 -0.32 -0.18 -5.33 -3.96
Jimmy Walker 7,600 21 52.04 310 3.11 4.08 4.82 50 -0.68 -0.34 0.05 -0.43 -7.13 -4.01
Matt Atkins 6,800 16 53.78 300 3.01 4.12 4.84 58.77 0.02 -0.28 -1.33 -0.1 -7.86 -4.25
Robert Streb 6,800 16 62.76 294 3.14 4.08 4.9 48.86 0.05 -0.19 -1.12 -0.04 -9.1 -4.31
Steve Wheatcroft 6,500 16 63.16 283 3.16 4.14 4.67 60.29 -0.25 -0.58 -0.74 0.09 -8.86 -4.33
Ben Crane 7,200 17 64.29 279 2.96 4.01 4.81 68 -0.48 -0.34 -0.03 0.6 -2.32 -5.05
Jonas Blixt 7,300 17 61.27 284 3.16 4.15 4.74 50.39 -0.89 -0.31 -0.19 0.16 -10.43 -5.11
Andrew Yun 6,500 16 50.95 288 3.22 4.22 4.92 41.35 -0.32 -0.35 -0.93 -0.84 -18.27 -5.82
Geoff Ogilvy 6,800 15 62.34 287 3.02 4.1 4.81 53.03 -0.49 -0.95 0.29 -0.11 -9.29 -7.41
Andrew Loupe 7,000 21 32.86 293 3.2 4.1 5.1 44.44 -0.56 -1.04 0.3 0.16 -16.23 -7.94
Jason Day 9,400 26 73.21 3.19 3.86 4.88 54

Rickie Fowler ($11,400)

Rahm is hot and as last year’s winner, he’s going to be a favorite on DraftKings. I like Fowler in this spot, not coming back from the Middle East this week as he has previously in this tournament. He grades out well in key stats, and I think he’s going to kick off a monster year.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)

A monster off the tee with a 1.01 SG:OTT, I’m taking Cantlay’s long, well-balanced game at Torrey Pines. Everyone seems to be moving towards Brandt Snedeker at this range, but Cantlay fits the course much better.

Lucas Glover ($7,100)

My favorite cheap option this week, Glover rates out very well in key stats along with Billy Horschel. He’s made every cut so far this year and finished 29th last week at the CareerBuilder Challenge.

Cameron Smith ($8,200)

Another guy who grades out really well for his price, Smith is great on Par 5 scoring and could put up some big fantasy numbers at Torrey Pines

Ollie Schniederjans ($8,500)

Might end up being heavily owned, but Ollie looks primed for a great showing this weekend. He’s well-balance from tee to green and long enough to score on any hole.

Fliers:

Bryson DeChambeau ($7,200)

If you Fowler/Cantlay up top, you’re going to have to grab one or two players at this range, and Bryson’s Par 5 scoring has me intrigued. There’s upside for a Top 10 and a fairly safe floor to match.

Chesson Hadley ($6,800)

Hadley has the opposite profile considering the key stats, but he is still long enough with the driver to make some noise. He’s great around the green, and if the weather turns, Hadley could be a great play at the price.