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Looking back on my bold predictions this fantasy football season

I made a bunch of bold predictions this season. Now it’s time to look back and see how they turned out.

Getty Images/Peter Rogers Illustrations

Given that the fantasy season is now over (congrats to all those who won their league) I figured it’s time to look back at all the numerous/unwarranted bold predictions I made before the fantasy season and reflect on how utterly wrong I was. Always important to start the new year feeling good about yourself right?

I wrote two different bold prediction articles during the preseason, so in total, I have 15 daring claims out to the internet to be remembered forever. Let’s travel down memory lane, shall we?

Prediction #1: Adrian Peterson will remind everyone that he doesn’t age like us mortal humans

Maybe you can possibly kind of claim that Peterson had a few games where he reminded us that he doesn’t age like mortal humans, but it’s impossible to claim he looked like that all season. I further dug myself into a hole when I predicted a statline for Peterson: 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns. Yikes. For those who don’t want to open up a new tab and search “Adrian Peterson stats” on Google, I can assure you I was way off. AP finished the season with 529 yards and two touchdowns.

Verdict: So wrong it hurts.

Prediction #2: Keenan Allen won’t miss a game this season & finish a top-10 fantasy WR

This might be the single greatest accomplishment I have ever accomplished. Not only did I get it right that Allen would finish a top-10 fantasy receiver—he finished fourth in standard scoring and third in PPR leagues—but he also didn’t miss a game this season. I WAS TWO FOR TWO ON THIS PREDICTION.

I’m going to really bask in this glorious moment because I know the rest of this article is going to be a crippling hellstorm of failure. So bear with me while I bask...




still basking




Verdict: still basking



I guess it’s time to move on...

Prediction #3: Michael Thomas and Terrelle Pryor will finish with more combined fantasy points than Jordy Nelson and Odell Beckham Jr

Wow. I lucked out on this one.

My reasoning behind this claim was that Odell was in a crowded Giants’ offense (remember when we were all hyped on Brandon Marshall joining the Giants? Well when I say “we” I mean everyone else because I could’ve told you from the word “Brandon Marshall’s staying in New York” that that experiment was going to fail) and Jordy wasn’t going to get the double digit touchdowns that makes him such a fantasy weapon. I also thought Thomas and Pryor were going to be tear the fantasy world apart.

I’ll give myself 50% on that reasoning.

Jordy did not live up to expectations, and while that was mainly because Aaron Rodgers got injured, I still think that Jordy and his years of fantasy dominance are behind him. Thomas did have a strong fantasy season, finishing WR10 this year. He single handedly made this prediction come true since Terrelle Pryor mustered a whopping 30 fantasy points this season. Yikes.

Verdict: God bless Michael Thomas

Prediction #4: 2015 Blake Bortles will return

Here was 2015 Blake Bortles’ statline: 4428 yards, 35 touchdowns and he was the 4th best quarterback in fantasy football, scoring 324 total points.

Here is 2017 Blake Bortles’ statline: 3687 yards, 21 touchdowns and 250 total fantasy points, good for QB13.

Here’s 2017 Blake Bortles’ statline if he’d played like he played in the month of December for the entire year: 4618 yards and 29 touchdowns.

I was close on this but it would have been a lot better if Bortles had played like he did in December all year long.

Verdict: Blake no longer sucks

Prediction #5: Rob Gronkowski isn’t worth drafting

While I gave the prediction the sexy headline “Gronk isn’t worth drafting” ultimately my prediction was that Gronk wasn’t going to be worth his 2.10 ADP this year. Well, I’ll let you determine if you think Gronk’s tight end high 158 points this season was worth drafting in the second/third round. Personally, I’m giving myself a big L on this one.

Verdict: Welcome Darkness, my old friend

Prediction #6: 20 QBs will score more total points than Cam Newton

So so so soooooooo wrong here. Ugh.

I thought Cam wasn’t going to bounce back after last year which he finished QB17 and given how Ron Rivera was talking in the offseason all about how the Panthers weren’t going to run with Cam anymore, I thought I was all set for a win. Last time I ever pay attention to coach talk.

Cam finished QB3 this year scoring 288 points this season. So, literally the exact opposite of what I said would happen happened. Perfect.

Verdict: I just got Superman’d

Prediction #7: The best fantasy player of 2017 will be a battle between David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott

And I don’t mean “best fantasy player” as in like the best skill position. I mean BEST PLAYER ALL AROUND. I’m saying the top two total point scorers next year will be Zeke and Johnson. Not a quarterback. Get outta here Aaron Rodgers.

Awesome. Way to go past-Pete. Way to really bury yourself in a hole here.

Now, could I have predicted David Johnson would miss the entire season? No. Could I have predicted that Elliott would miss significant time this season? No. Well, no at the time I wrote this prediction. I wrote this well before Elliott’s suspension was even on the NFL’s radar.

Even if I had picked the right running back, Todd Gurley for those wondering, he still not the top scorer this season in standard leagues. In PPR leagues, it’s Gurley #1 and Le’Veon Bell #2, who, I should add, I go out of my way to say will NOT have a good season this year. Yet another hole.

Verdict: maybe a pass, but this was pretty wrong

Prediction #8: Marcus Mariota will lead the NFL in TDs

He finished 26th.

Prediction #9: Joe Mixon won’t live up to the hype

I don’t know what you want to define “the hype” as but Mixon certainly did not break out onto the football stage the way many people thought he would. He finished RB32 in total scoring (standard).

Verdict: I’ll take the win

Prediction #10: This will be the last year Ben Roethlisberger has fantasy relevance

I’m assuming I meant this season—ie the 2017 season that just finished—as Big Ben’s last season with fantasy relevance. I still believe that. Who knows if he’ll a) play next year (he will, he’ll just have a lengthy time period where he flirts with retirement because too much attention will be paid to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell this offseason for his liking) and b) he’s not Tom Brady and will start sucking soon.

Verdict: check back in 2019

Prediction #11: Isaiah Crowell has a career year & finishes RB7

I was fully aboard the Crowell train this year. Serves me right for ever believing in a Browns player. But come on, the Browns just spent a ton of money shoring up their offensive line and with a rookie quarterback I thought for sure Crowell would get a sizeable workload and flourish. Clearly that didn’t happen.

Crowell did not have a career year (far from it) and finished nowhere near RB7 (he finished RB26).

Verdict: never trust a Brown

Prediction #12: Donte Moncrief leads the NFL in touchdown receptions

I had a whole bunch of stats and math and science to back up this claim but obviously none of that proved to be right. *sigh*


Prediction #13: Jay Cutler does not suck

Spoiler alert: he sucked

Prediction #14: Dalvin Cook wins (fantasy) Rookie of the Year

I would have loved to have seen what Cook could have done in a full season. If you take his first four games and extrapolate that into a 16 game season, he’d have finished with 296 carries 1,416 yards and 8 touchdowns plus 44 catches for 360 yards. Kareem Hunt, who finished the highest scoring fantasy rookie this year, had 272 carries for 1,327 yards, 8 touchdowns and 53 catches for 455 yards and three touchdowns. Really none of this would have mattered if Deshaun Watson had stayed healthy since he’d easily have won fantasy rookie of the year.

Verdict: Injuries suck

Prediction #15: Allen Robinson gets traded out of Jacksonville in an attempt to get him a real quarterback

Would have looked like a genius if this had come true.

Verdict: I’m not a genius