Conway Farms Golf Club
September 7th - 10th
Four Premium Priced picks ($8,000+)
Two Mid-tier Priced picks ($6,000- $8,000)
Two Bargain Basement picks ($6,000-)
Pricey Picks ($8,000+):
Rickie Fowler ($9,200)
Jason Day ($9,100)
Paul Casey ($9,000)
Matt Kuchar ($8,200)
Rickie is 2nd on the tour in strokes gained, he has 7 consecutive top 25 finishes, he will likely have one clunker at some point but two years ago when it was at Conway Farms Golf Club he finished 4th. Jason has 5 consecutive top 30 finishes, he's 6th in birdie averages and 13th in eagle averages and he finished..1st here two years ago. I've covered Paul a bit lately, he's been the most dominant golfer over the last month and a half, much like Rickie he will eventually fall off but I think he has a strong outing at the BMW Championship. Matt had an uncharacteristic 56th place finish last week at the Dell Technologies Championship. I think he bounces back to what he did over the previous 9 tournaments (with one exception) and finishes in the top 15. Matt is 23rd in total strokes gained on the tour and sits at 18th in the FedEx Cup ranking.
Mid-Tier Pick ($6,000-$8,000):
Bill Haas ($6,300)
Zac Johnson ($6,400)
Bill is not accurate but he's lethal around the green (4th on the tour in strokes gained). He's 16th in scoring average, he won't get the birdie, eagle push but he has a good shot at a top 25 finish at least 1-2 days. Zach is one of the more accurate golfers in the game, he was 13th here two years ago, he's 40th in strokes gained approaching the green, 33rd in strokes gained putting and 43rd in scoring average.
Bargain Picks ($6,000-):
Chez Reavie ($5,900)
Keegan Bradley ($5,800)
Chez is off .He's 5th on the tour in driving accuracy, at a location where that's more important than distance (he's 157th in distance) I think he could play into his 57th ranking in average birdies. He's 47th in strokes gained approaching the green and 37th in strokes gained putting. Keegan is 24th in driving accuracy, 29th in average number of eagles, 46th in birdies and 35th in strokes gained tee to green. He has the best opportunity at a top 20 finish on Friday. He has made 10 consecutive cuts with 4 top 15 finishes over that time.
(I can't go based on scores, each tournament is different contingent on how many birdies occur so I will go on finishing position which is mostly close to how well they did.)
Pricey Picks: 40th (28th percentile)
Mid-Tier Picks: 44th (30th percentile)
Bargain Picks: 56th (39th percentile)