Today is a little something different. Still expect our typical picks to arrive, but I am trying a new experiment with MLB DFS and I figured I would share it with the masses.
Or, at least with the people who read this article.
My fellow degenerate Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice) has been rolling out some all-BvP lineups in recent days. I believe heading into yesterday he had a 50% success rate (3-for-6). Intrigued, I created an all-BvP lineup last night. It min-cashed in the $1 single entry tournament on FanDuel. I don’t know yet how Jamie’s lineups fared yesterday, but from what little information we have currently, we have a 4-for-7 rate of success.
Today I am going to create a couple of similar lineups, and here are what the BvP (batter vs. pitcher) and PvB (pitcher vs. batter) statistics have to tell us:
Targets: Chris Sale, Lance McCullers, Josh Tomlin, and Rich Hill
Sale and McCullers are obvious, and probably have good history against most teams. Tomlin would be sneaky if he weren’t facing the Padres...current bats there are 1-for-18 against him. However, Tomlin only has one strikeout in those 18 at-bats, and that’s typical of him. You’d have to hope he went deep into the game, which is definitely possible. Hill is an interesting candidate. He is another Los Angeles lefty against Arizona, and his numbers are promising: 7-for-37 (.189 avg), 2 HR allowed, 35.7% K-rate, 7.1% BB-rate.
Robbie Ray’s strikeouts are great (28.9%) but the walk rate is not (14.1%) and the batting average allowed is pedestrian at .264. The good news is the park shift to Los Angeles, though. Maybe it’s a push on that front. It’s Mike Foltynewicz we probably need to worry about, as lefty bats get to him historically and the prominent Washington lefties all have good history against him—albeit in small samples.
Finally, the young guns are coming in without a lot of history today. The Orioles only have 14 at-bats against Berrios (4-for-14). The Indians have never seen Dinelson Lamet and the Red Sox have never seen Jacob Faria. Since the Athletics and Mariners are throwing newcomers Paul Blackburn and Sam Gaviglio we have no history there, either. But you probably weren’t relying on either of those guys.
Hitters: Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, others
Daniel Murphy (.462, 13 AB), Brian Goodwin (.600, 5 AB, 1 HR), Bryce Harper (.333, 6 AB, 1 HR), and Matt Wieters (.571, 7 AB) all have solid numbers against Folty. It could be a long day for the young Atlanta hurler, who has really been solid lately.
On the flip side, Freddie Freeman (.306, 36 AB, 2 HR), Matt Kemp (.368, 19 AB, 2 HR), Dansby Swanson (.429, 7 AB, 2 HR), and Ender Inciarte (.529, 17AB) all have solid numbers against Gio Gonzalez. Anybody feeling a game stack? It would likely be contrarian given Folty’s recent success and Gio’s overall success this season. You can probably ignore Anthony Rendon (.143, 7AB, HR) and Nick Markakis (.192, 26 AB) if you do so.
Kike Hernandez ($2,300) has the line of the day against Robbie Ray: .389, 18 AB, 3 HR. In non-Ray lineups you have to consider him at that price point. If you do, a mini-stack with Yasiel Puig (.316, 19 AB, HR) might make sense. You could fade Justin Turner (.176, 17 AB) if you went this route.
Trevor Plouffe ($2,000) stood out to me. Obviously Chris Sale is a beast, but Plouffe is far better against southpaws and has a large sample size against Sale (42 AB). He is hitting .333 in those at-bats. No home runs to speak of, but still...he is the minimum on FanDuel and makes for an interesting punt option. His teammate, Evan Longoria, has not solved the mystery of Chris Sale. Longo is hitting .074 on 27 AB against Sale (0 home runs). Tim Beckham is 0 for 11. You get why Sale made the target list...
Manny Machado ($3,100) is 3 for 5 with a home run against Berrios. Jonathan Schoop and Adam Jones don’t have good averages but each has a home run. In the same game, Brian Dozier is 1-for-4 with a home run against Dylan Bundy.
I think the only true catcher punt (according to BvP) is Chris Iannetta ($2,800). He is known to hit lefties far better and is hitting .286 with two home runs off of Rich Hill (7 AB).
Lastly, some small sample size guys...Joey Bautista ($3,900) is 2-for-3 with a home run against McCullers. You probably don’t want to bank on that, but it would be contrarian, and this effort is all about following the BvP...
The only other Ray to really have any success against Sale is Logan Morrison ($3,000) the Home Run Derby snub. LoMo is 3-for-9 with a home run against Sale in this matchup of lefties. That would certainly be contrarian...
I believe that’s it for the BvP and PvB statistics today. Take it with a grain of salt, but have fun with it. Maybe it helps you decide between a couple of guys. Maybe it pays off. Who knows? I’ll be tracking my own lineups for sure. Here’s a funky lineup before we go:
Sale, Iannetta, LoMo, Plouffe, Machado, Swanson, Kike, Bryce, Puig.
Yep, LoMo and Plouffe against my pitcher. Told you it was funky.