Daily Fantasy MLB picks for Monday, July 17

Yesterday was a phenomenal bust for the BvP lineup. McCann, Moss, and Cano all managed goose-eggs. Bogaerts, Polanco, and Gardner each scored 3 FDP. Adam Jones was the best hitter with a shiny 9 FDP effort, followed by Chase Headley’s 6 FDP. Along with Darvish’s 36 FDP, that worked out to a whopping 60 FDP. This method has never fared that poorly before. Let’s hope for a bounce-back today.

Note: All statistics were pulled from Baseball Savant, which dates back to 2008 for most numbers, but only to 2015 for aEV (Average Exit Velocity). As such, there will be players where I list “no aEV” in this article, as none was available to me.

Catcher

Alex Avila ($2,500) @ LHP Jason Vargas - 5 of 16, 2 singles, 1 double, 2 HR (3 XBH), 2 BB, 5 SO

Note: Avila sat against lefty Francisco Liriano on Saturday. James McCann may get the starting nod today. A situation to monitor.

Austin Hedges ($3,200) @ German Marquez - 1 of 2, HR.

Note: Hedges sustained a head injury from a foul ball on Friday and is ‘hopeful’ to return to action tonight. I’d be hopeful, too, if my home park was Petco and I got the park boost in Colorado.

First Base

There are multiple options at first base today. I’ll likely roll with whoever fits the best with the rest of the lineup, but here are your BvP darlings for today:

Anthony Rizzo ($4,100) @ Julio Teheran - 3 of 15, 1 single, 1 double, 1 HR (2 XBH), 2 BB, 4 SO, 106.6 aEV.

Miguel Cabrera ($4,000) @ LHP Jason Vargas - 6 of 19, 1 single, 4 doubles, 1 HR (5 XBH), 6 BB, 2 SO, no aEV

Edwin Encarnacion ($3,700) @ LHP Matt Moore - 6 of 18, 4 singles, 1 double, 1 HR (2 XBH), 7 BB, 5 SO, 97.5 aEV

Justin Bour ($3,400) vs. Jerad Eickhoff - 3 of 6, 2 singles, 1 HR (1 XBH), O BB, 1 SO, 105.0 aEV

Mike Napoli ($3,200) @ Chris Tillman - 8 of 29, 5 singles, 2 doubles, 1 HR (3 XBH), 5 BB, 10 SO, 90.9 aEV

Lucas Duda ($3,200) vs. Adam Wainwright - 3 of 10, 1 single, 1 double, 1 HR (2 XBH), 2 BB, 2 SO, no aEV

Second Base

Ian Kinsler ($3,100) @ LHP Jason Vargas - 19 of 59, 10 singles, 7 doubles, 2 HR (9 XBH), 3 BB, 2 SO, no aEV

Shortstop

There are multiple options here, much like first base. Only Bogaerts has a decent sample size, and I hate paying up for Bogaerts. Still, here are your choices at short:

Xander Bogaerts ($3,300) vs. Marcus Stroman - 10 of 20, 7 singles, 2 doubles, 1 HR (3 XBH), 0 BB, 4 SO, 97.4 aEV

Francisco Lindor ($3,200) @ LHP Matt Moore - 4 of 6, 3 singles, 1 HR (1 XBH), 0 BB, 0 SO, 90.0 aEV

Paul DeJong ($2,600) @ Zack Wheeler - 2 of 2, HR, no aEV.

Marcus Semien ($2,400) vs. Jake Odorizzi - 1 single, 1 double, 1 HR (2 XBH), 0 BB, 1 SO, 92.7 aEV

Third Base

Nolan Arenado ($4,600) vs. Luis Perdomo - 3 of 8, 1 double, 2 HR (3 XBH), 2 BB, 0 SO, 96.6 aEV

Freddie Freeman ($3,800) vs. LHP Jon Lester - 5 of 14, 3 singles, 1 triple, 1 HR (2 XBH), 1 BB, 6 SO, 93.8 aEV

Adrian Beltre ($3,700) @ Chris Tillman - 7 of 15, 4 singles, 2 doubles, 1 HR (3 XBH), 0 BB, 0 SO, 91.7 aEV

Outfield

George Springer ($4,300) vs. LHP Ariel Miranda - 3 of 8, 3 HR (3 XBH), 1 BB, 1 SO, 94.6 aEV

Jay Bruce ($3,600) vs. Adam Wainwright - 12 of 41, 8 singles, 2 doubles, 2 HR (4 XBH), 5 BB, 14 SO, 82.7 aEV

Justin Upton (3,500) @ LHP Jason Vargas - 3 of 6, 1 single, 2 HR (2 XBH), 0 BB, 1 SO, no aEV

Kyle Schwarber ($2,700) @ Julio Teheran - 3 of 3, 2 singles, 1 double (1 XBH), 0 BB, 0 SO, 99.8 aEV

Note: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,400) and Charlie Blackmon ($4,800) are a combined 8 of 20 off of Luis Perdomo—but those guys were obvious options in Coors, anyway.

Pitcher:

Jon Lester ($9,500) is an obvious choice against Atlanta: AVG: 0.232 (45 for 194), K%: 24.6, BB%: 3.9, FIP: 2.45. Still, Lester has a uncharacteristic 4.25 ERA this season and is coming off arguably the worst start of his big league career (a July 9th whipping by the Pittsburgh Pirates). The Braves are an improved lineup now with the return of Freddie Freeman...I’d tread lightly here.

Lance McCullers ($9,100) has solid numbers against Seattle: AVG: 0.246 (17 for 69), K%: 30.4, BB%: 12.7, FIP: 2.15. The walk percentage is concerning, but that’s a part of the deal with McCullers’ nasty upside. He could easily be the highest-scoring pitcher of the evening.

Marcus Stroman ($8,300) fits nicely with the prominent BvP guys and has solid numbers against the Red Sox. Consider the numbers...AVG: 0.315 (39 for 124), K%: 20.9, BB%: 3.9, FIP: 2.27. He has 27 strikeouts against a mere 5 walks, and 39 groundouts against only 4 flyouts. His ground ball nature gives him a solid floor, even if his upside is generally capped by an average strikeout rate. Current Red Sox have a single home run off of him over those 124 at-bats. You could probably do worse with your pitcher on this slate.

Julio Teheran ($7,800) has a solid history against the Cubbies...who knew? Definitely not for the faint of heart, but here goes...AVG: 0.196 (9 for 46), K%: 29.4, BB%: 7.8, FIP: 2.79. That’s not a large sample size and Teheran is known to get flamed by left-handed hitters, but the Cubs don’t have solid left-handed hitting in abundance. You’re either loading up on Rizzo and Schwarber or having to consider Teheran...right?

I must be crazy. That’s a fine place to end it, with some Teheran propaganda. I’ll post the final BvP lineup in the comments prior to locking it up today. Good luck out there, ladies and gents.