clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Bold Predictions Mid-Season UPDATES : Was I too bullish on Jameson Taillon this year? Perhaps.

Mark provides mid-season updates to the pre-season bold predictions and it gets ugly.

Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Mid-season update to the pre-season bold predictions show
1 likely occurs. (#10)
3 Derailed by injuries (premise is on the right path - #2, #5, #9)
2 were on the correct path but went too far with the assumptions (#3, #4)
1 is a coin toss (#6)
3 of them are laughably errant so far (#1, #7, #8).

Here we go:
1. Despite having never done this in a season at any level, Greg Bird hits over 30 Home Runs this season.
All-Star Break update: Epic failure here. Now he's being question on his work ethic, this saga keeps getting uglier and uglier. Can I echange Greg Bird with Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Matt Davidson, Hunter Renfroe, Josh Bell, Trey Mancini, Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, or Yulieski Gurriel for this bld prediction?
Probability: 3%

2. Jameson Taillon finishes in the top 3 in National League Cy  Young votes.
All-Star Break update: He's sporting a 2.73 across 5 wins with a 1.43 WHIP. His cancerous injured time will take him out but all things considered I'm mighty proud about his play so far.
Probability: 10%

3. Mark Trumbo hit 47 home runs last year, leading all of MLB for the 2016 season. This year, he hits less than 25.
All-Star Break update: 14 home runs through the first half. He will likely hit the 25 but the point remains, clearly a strong regression candidate.
Probability: 25%

4. Jose Peraza is in the top 3 in the league in steals this year.
All-Star Break update: He has 15 through the first half putting him in 13th place. He will likely not finish in the top 3 (or the top 10 at this pace) but if he were to finish with more than 35 I'd be happy with that output. Trea Turner being hurt will provide chance for Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Dyson, Delino Deshields and Jose Altuve to move into the top 3 though.
Probability: 15%

5. Jon Gray finished 19th last year in total strikeouts with 185 K's across 168 innings pitched. This year he finishes in the top 5.
All-Star Break update: Again those pesky injuries, that foot injury taking him out for a month will derail this prediction but he still has still shown elite stuff. In all of MLB, the 5th place pitcher in strikeouts is Robby Ray who has 141 K's across 106 Innings Pitched. Jon Gray currently has 24 K's across 24 Innings Pitched. All things equal he would be around 16th right now (assuming he kept the pace).
Probability: 4%

6. Mike Zunino finishes not only above the Mendoza line but above .250 batting average.
All-Star Break update: Meh, he started horribly, was sent down, came up with a great 3 game stretch, went cold, sent back down. Now he's back again and hitting a respectable .228 over his last month. It's possible but it won't be easy.
Probability: 39%

7. AJ Reed comes up to replace Yulieski Gurriel and proceeds to hit 20 home runs.
All-Star Break update: Well not only did Yulieski Gurriel do well, so did Marwin Gonzalez right behind him.  AJ is doing ok with the Fresno Grizzlies knocking 15 HR across 81GP with a .242 average.
Probability: 7%

8. The San Diego Padres scored 686 runs last year, good enough for 20th in the league. This year, they are in the top 10 in Runs Scored.
All-Star Break update: They will not be in the top 10 in runs scored. They are in dead last with 312 runs scored (they would have to be at 431 to be in the top ten so they are only 119 runs back) the worst part is, it was even worse a month ago, if it weren't for a decent stretch of runs scored over June where they weren't last but third to last, this could be worse. Epic. Failure. I drank the Koolaide and really thought Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Cory Spangenberg and Austin Hedges would be more of an offensive threat then they have proven to be.
Probability: 2%

9. David Price. He finished 2016 with 17 wins, 3.99 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. In 2017 -€” he finishes with 20 wins,  4.30 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
All-Star Break update: That pesky elbow injury really manifested itself. He is limited on starts due to it as he works his way back and currently sitting at 6 wins, a 3.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.26. He will likely fall short of all estimations due to the injury.
Probability: 18%

10. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff had one pitcher with double digit wins last year: Zach Greinke. This year they will have 3.
All-Star Break update: one of the pleasant picks among here has been the success of the Diamondbacks. Greinke is up to true form with 11 wins so far and a 2.86ERA. Robbie Ray is not far behind with 8 wins and a 2.97ERA. I think one more will get there but it's a toss up on whether it is Taijuan Walker (6 wins) or Patrick Corbin (6 wins).
Probability: 85%

Let the second half begin.