It isn’t new information by any stretch, but I have very much enjoyed the cheap catcher contributions the last couple of days. Cameron Rupp was the 2K minimum on Friday and popped a bomb and stole a bag for me in the DFS Wars competition (27.7 FDP). On Saturday, Jose Lobaton ($2,000) gave my tourney lineup some juice with a home run and a final tally of 27.9 FDP. Please don’t pay up at catcher, people.
Also, Happy Father’s Day to all. Since it is that day, I am walking into a big breakfast soon...so today might be more concise than usual. Let’s get to it.
Target: Jimmy Nelson ($9,300) vs. San Diego Padres
Sometimes you just have to hold your nose and give it a whirl, right? The Padres have the lowest implied run total of the day (3.81) despite the cushy hitting locale of Miller Park. Nelson has an epic 29.2% K-rate against left-handed hitters, but he also gives up hard contact 39.2% of the time. He only strikes out right-handed hitters 17.6% of the time, but he induces ground balls at a 58.1% rate and allows little hard contact (27.5%). Righty bats are getting a solid amount of hits against Nelson, but not many of them are home runs. Nelson is also limiting the damage by not walking many batters—LHH walk only 6.2% of the time and RHH walk at a 5.7% rate. Finally, the Padres have well-documented issues with striking out, as their 25.6% K-rate against RHP is the worst in the MLB. The Friars rank 26th in wRC+ (85) and 28th in wOBA (.300).
Nelson is currently a solid -156 favorite and 75% of the money in “Vegas” is on the Brew-Crew. Also, 65% of betting folks are taking the under in this game...there are a lot of positive signs. On a slate where Jacob deGrom ($9,800) is only $500 more than Nelson and Jameson Taillon ($8,300) is $1,000 cheaper, I am hoping Nelson goes overlooked in this enticing matchup.
Stack Against: Bronson Arroyo ($5,600) with Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a pretty obvious call today. One of the reasons I don’t mind being a little chalky is that people tend to overlook the righty-versus-righty split on occasion. Today, that would be a mistake. Justin Turner ($3,600) has a paltry .109 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but last year he slugged 22 home runs against them (.258 ISO). Now fully recovered from a hamstring injury and fresh from a day off on Saturday, I love me some Turner in the Great American “Small Park.”
Arroyo has been bad versus RHH, but he has been horrible against lefty bats. LHH have slapped 13 home runs in 25.1 innings against Arroyo, “good” for a .442 wOBA. Lefties make hard contact 38.5% of the time and hit fly balls at an alarming 56% rate. Arroyo compounds the damage by not striking many batters out, as his overall 13.7% K-rate is very low. Arroyo’s HR/FB rate to LHH is abnormally high at 25.5 percent, but since he allows so many fly balls to that handedness I don’t see that number regressing positively today in the hitter’s haven of Cincinnati.
You can literally use any hitter from this lineup, even opting for a wraparound stack due to the recent surge by Yasiel Puig, who typically bats 8th against right-handed pitching. My favorites are Turner, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and either Christopher Taylor or Yasmani Grandal. Mix it up a bit so you don’t miss out, ladies and gents.
No final thoughts today, as I’m off to play with my kids and enjoy Father’s Day. I hope you all do the same! We will end it with a poll, though:
Who is your favorite GPP pitcher of the day?
This poll is closed
Robbie Ray ($11,000) @ PHI
Jacob deGrom ($9,800) vs. WAS
Jimmy Nelson ($9,300) vs. SDP
Jameson Taillon ($8,300) vs. CHC
Jacob Faria ($6,500) @ DET