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Daily Fantasy MLB picks for Sunday, May 28

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Heath explores the Main slate on FanDuel.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Today’s Main slate on FanDuel has 11 games and begins at 1:05pm ET. The Coors Field game is not on the Main slate, so you’ll have to leave that decision for the later games, thankfully. Today we have Lance McCullers ($9,400) at home against the Orioles, and McCullers’ string of epic home starts makes him as safe an option as there is in the fake game. Matt Shoemaker ($9,500) is the highest-priced pitcher and could go overlooked because of it. He’s been on a major heater in his last three games (44 FDP, 47 FDP, 49 FDP). Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, even all the way down to Alex Cobb...there is no lack of pitching on this slate. Let’s dive in.

Target: Joe Ross ($7,500) vs. San Diego Padres

Ross threw 101 pitches in his last start against the Seattle Mariners, so the upside is certainly there for a deep effort against San Diego. The Friars have the second-worst strikeout rate (24.9%) against right-handed pitching in the MLB this season and have been a popular team to pick on for for-e-ver. Ross does his best work against right-handed hitters, as the career .204/.247/.327 slash and .249 wOBA can attest. Left-handed bats have always been his bane, as they are slashing .296/.366/.457 and have a sparkling .355 wOBA. It’s good that Nationals Park is bad for left-handed hitters, then. That, and the Padres’ main threats from the left side of the plate are Yangervis Solarte (.140 ISO, 99 wRC+) and Ryan Schimpf (.252 ISO, 95 wRC+). Schimpf’s ISO is nice but he’s striking out 33.6% of the time against right-handed pitching. I’ll have lots of Ross today, just like everyone else.

Stack Against: Christian Bergman with Boston Red Sox

Consider this: Rick Porcello has NOT pitched well this season (4.35 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and has allowed 29 hits and 11 earned runs over his last three starts (18 23 innings). And he is a sizable -180 favorite at home against the Mariners today. That’s because his opponent, Christian Bergman, is historically bad. Bergman is only in the Mariners rotation due to the rash of injuries to their starters, and his results are consistent with someone being pressed into duty who does not belong. In his last game he allowed 10 runs on 14 hits in four innings against the Nationals. For the season he has shown reverse splits, as RHH are slashing .353/.434/.723 with a .477 wOBA against him. He has actually been good against LHH, though, limiting them to a .200/.250/.300 slash and .244 wOBA.

Bergman’s stats above come on small sample sizes from this season, but his career numbers are similar: .313 wOBA to LHH and .427 wOBA to RHH. 23 of the 29 home runs he has allowed in his career have been hit by right-handed bats. And Boston plays better to right-handed hitters anyway...so give me Mookie Betts (.194 ISO, 125 wRC+) and Xander Bogaerts (.145 ISO, 141 wRC+) for starters.

Hanley Ramirez (.160 ISO, 122 wRC+) is more likely to sock a home run and complete the stack than Dustin Pedroia, so I’ll take him next. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi (.149 ISO, 107 wRC+) is a left-handed bat but his prime spot in the batting order against a guy who should get rocked makes him appealing. The bottom end of the Red Sox lineup should be mostly left-handed; and that’s okay because it allows us to narrow our focus on the right-handed hitters. Just don’t complete ignore Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($3,300) in your tournaments...with a hit in each of his last three games and a home run last night, it is possible that he might be entering into one of his legendary hot streaks.

Quick Hitting:

Lance McCullers may get the Orioles without Adam Jones today. Jones is battling a sore left ankle and a hip injury. McCullers is costly, but he sure is appealing...the Orioles’ 3.40 implied run total is the lowest on today’s slate.

Salvador Perez ($3,200) is 17-for-32 (.531) with eight doubles, one home run, and a 1.406 OPS against Indians starter Josh Tomlin. I know the Royals can’t hit a lick, but Tomlin is a bad pitcher and does not deserve to be a -130 favorite against the red-hot southpaw Danny Duffy. That line is very curious to me.

I like the idea of paying up for Matt Shoemaker to be funky today. McCullers and Pineda will draw a lot of interest, as will Joe Ross against the lowly Padres. The Marlins aren’t overly scary outside of their two big right-handed bats, and Shoemaker is on one of his patented hot streaks. Stranger things can happen.

This slate is going to be fun. I’m not done researching just yet. I’d love to have a conversation about what everyone is unearthing. Let’s end it with a poll:

Poll

Who is your top pitcher for GPPs today?

This poll is closed

  • 20%
    Matt Shoemaker ($9,500) @ MIA
    (5 votes)
  • 12%
    Lance McCullers ($9,400) vs. BAL
    (3 votes)
  • 20%
    Michael Pineda ($9,100) vs. OAK
    (5 votes)
  • 8%
    Danny Duffy ($8,700) @ CLE
    (2 votes)
  • 40%
    Joe Ross ($7,500) vs. SDP
    (10 votes)
25 votes total Vote Now