What: AT&T Byron Nelson
When: May 18th-21st
Where: Four Seasons Resort Club Dallas
2016 Winner: Sergio Garcia (-15)
Purse: $7.3 Million ($1.3MM to winner) - 2016 amounts.
Course: Four Seasons Resort Club Dallas. Opened in 1983 and designed by Jay Morish, this 7,160 yards, par 70 course had influence from Byron Nelson himself in it's design. It's compacted and stresses a good consistent game more than any attempts to trick golfers and force certain aspects to outshine others. The hills will keep players honest on ball placement and the water cascade on 18th is a beauty to look at.
Jason Day. I think now is the perfect time to use him because most people will not be taking this risk. Fresh off a missed cut and 60th place finish at the Players Championship his stock is low. His most recent play at Byron Nelson was in 2012 where he finished 9th. It's a roll of the dice, but a calculated one, he looked solid at the PLAYERS championship until it fell apart for him on Sunday.
Jordan Spieth. Now is a good time to use one of his starts. This course benefits golfers who are consistently below par. It's not about tripping up anyone with tough bunkers or traps, its more about consistency. Jordan is coming off a missed cut (rare but they do happen with him) and I think he can bounce back strongly here with a top 10 finish. He finished 18th here last year, 30th in 2015 and 37th in 2014.
Brandt Snedeker. 1 missed cut along with 4 top 15 finishes over his last 8 starts. He has a mixed bag of results here, he missed the cut last year, finished 6th in 2015 and missed the cut in 2014.
Russell Henley. He is having a solid season with 2 missed cuts and 2 top ten finishes over his 11 starts this year. Much like Brandt he has a mixed bag of results with a missed cut last year and 22nd placing in 2015 but both have great low consistent averages this year which should bode well for their chances here.
Seung-Yol Noh. He's had a tumultuous season so far, he missed three consecutive cuts earlier this year before a stretch of solid starts and then two consecutive missed cuts. With solid outings at Wells Fargo Championship (5th) and the PLAYERS championship (22nd) I'm going to ride this momentum into another course where his solid putting has carried him.
Current Stats on picks so far this season:
A Golfers: Avg finish 42nd (32nd percentile)
B Golfers: Avg finish: 48th (37th percentile)
C Golfers: Avg finish: 46th (35th percentile)
Sleepers: Avg finish 49th (37th percentile)