Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers out there! Hopefully some of you DFSers can win some money today and go buy that special Mom in your life something nice. I cooked a massive breakfast for the family this morning and then cleaned up after so the wife didn’t have to—if it’s your wife or significant other that’s the main Mom in your life, make sure you do something out of the ordinary for her all throughout the day. You know, vacuum the house, do laundry, etc etc etc. You know what to do.
The Main slate on FanDuel begins at 1:07pm ET and there are 10 games to pick from.
Target: LHP Jose Quintana ($8,700) vs. San Diego Padres
“The Q” seems like a value relative to the three guys priced above him. The Padres are an enticing matchup with a 22% K-rate (12th), .115 ISO (23rd), and a 60 wRC+ (28th). Quintana is more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, who have mustered a .258/.343/.441 slash and .342 wOBA against him this year. The Padres can roll out plenty of right-handed bats today, but the .115 ISO and pitiful 60 wRC+ are not scary.
Quintana has a healthy 23.6% K-rate against RHH but is walking them too much at 10.4% of the time. Those walks are uncharacteristic for a guy with career rates of 5.8% to LHH and 6.6% to RHH. Some regression to career norms should come as soon today against the generally hapless Padres. Quintana opened as a strong -190 favorite against Jered Weaver and the Friars. It’s encouraging that the White Sox should have the edge against Quintana’s opponent—even if he stumbles a little there’s a great chance he still snags the quality start and the win today.
Stack Against: Mike Fiers with New York Yankees
Mike Fiers has allowed 14 home runs in his 30.1 innings this season, with nine of those to right-handed hitters. Right-handers are slashing an epic .309/.373/.870 with a .507 wOBA against Fiers. Fiers’ 2.60 HR/9 allowed to left-handed bats is ghastly, but not nearly as bad as the 6.23 HR/9 he is giving up to right-handed bats. In short, the dude is allowing home runs left and right (pun intended) so far in 2017.
Looking a little deeper, Fiers actually has a healthy 58.5 GB% against lefties, but right-handed bats are hitting fly balls 48.8% of the time and are making hard contact 43.9% of the time. The dangerous right-handed Yankees may knock Fiers right out of the league tomorrow. Give me Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Hicks. If Hicks gets an unfavorable spot in the lineup I’d be fine to pivot over to Brett Gardner or Matt Holliday instead. That’s the only issue with the guys in pinstripes...you could use any combination of hitters 1-7, easy. I always love me some Didi Gregorius ($3,300) if he’s the guy that makes your stacks work.
Curtis Granderson ($2,500) is the BvP play of the day against Wily Peralta. In 14 AB, Granderson is hitting .571 with three home runs. A lot of those left-handed Mets look nice against Peralta today.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,200) has a solid sample size of 39 AB against Adam Wainwright. He is hitting .282 with a home run against him. Willson Contreras ($2,900) is 2 for 5 with a home run against Wainwright and just had a double-dong night on Friday. Watch out for Miguel Montero ($2,700) potentially drawing the start today, though. He would be a solid play against Wainwright.
Matt Carpenter ($4,200) is hitless over 27 AB against Jake Arrieta. Make of that what you will. I don’t love Arrieta or the Cardinals today...I’m probably just staying away.
The Toronto Blue Jays have victimized Seattle’s starting pitching this weekend, and there is a good chance that continues against southpaw Ariel Miranda today. Kevin Pillar ($3,400) leads the American League with 47 hits. Jose Bautista ($3,700) has home runs in three of his last four games. Kendrys Morales ($2,800) returned from a hamstring injury on Saturday and promptly hit a home run. The only saving grace for Miranda may be that none of these Jays have ever seen him pitch before. But I’ll have some shares of Toronto for sure. It’s also conceivable that the Jays go right back to being bad, though—Miranda isn’t the best pitcher but he is the best one the Jays will have seen this weekend. If you feel froggy, Miranda could be interesting in a large GPP.
That’s about it for me today. Feel free to chat away in the comments. I’d love to have a dialogue about the upcoming slate. Cheers!