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Full docket of games today (14) scattered from 1:05pm - 10:10pm. The highest of the pitchers is Yu Darvish ($11,200 vs San Diego). I'm nervous about this matchup because everything seems too perfect and the price reflects that. Additionally San Diego got goose egged yesterday, it's tough for a team to go back to back games runless. My history - first set of picks were atrocious, second set were amazing. Latest outing picked for Bartolo Colon and against Jeff Samardija (both terrible picks) BUT if you followed the hitters (Marcell Ozuna and JT Realmuto) you got very cheap hitters who raked and likely carried your team.
Weather (as of now):
95% chance of precipitation in Minnesota at Chicago White Sox, to be safe I'm avoiding that one.
Target: Chase Anderson ($8,300) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox
1. In his 3 home starts, Chase has a 2.06 ERA.
2. While largely unfamiliar with him, Boston hitters who have faced him are all below a .124 batting average (with the exception of Chase d'Arnaud).
3. Fresh off back to back rough outings vs. Atlanta and at St. Louis I like his chances to bounce back strongly.
4. He's only had one start not last at least 5 innings this year and it just happened.
5. Inter-league matchup off the rough outings is very risky but that's what I like about this, I think there is a lot of value to be had here. He's the 7th most expensive pitcher and yet he holds one of the best ERA's in the majors right now.
6. Despite their red hot last year (see what I did there?), Boston has scored the 16th most runs this year. (Milwaukee has scored the 5th most!)
7. It's a dome so locking in at 1:00pm has no weather concerns.
Stack Against: Jaime Garcia ($7,700) Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
1. Jaime has been decent this year just under 4.00ERA which not all pitchers can boast this early in the season. My issue is the familiarity that Astros hitters have:
Jose Altuve - .529 over 17AB
Norichika Aoki - .350 over 20AB
Alex Bregman - .667 over 3AB
Marwin Gonzalez - .500 over 6AB
Jake Marisnick - .500 over 2AB
2. On the road his ERA has been - 6.00, 5.40 and 3.00. At home his ERA has been 2.84 . This matchup is on the road.
3. Houston Astros have scored the 11th most runs this year.
4. 3 straight outings of 2ER or fewer and that's fantastic but at some point he will have a bad outing, I think the formula is there for this to be it.
Three Hitters I like:
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Michael Conforto($4,000).He's 3/3 against Matt Cain, it's a small sample size and if you wanted to go $100 cheaper and pick Jay Bruce who is .583 against him with 12 AB it would be logical but I think Conforto might go yard today. EDIT - CONFORTO IS OUT - GO WITH JAY BRUCE OR RYAN BRAUN ($3,400) - Anthony Rendon ($3,400). He's .636 over 11AB vs. Miley, his bat is heating up lately and he's on a streak.
- Carlos Gonzalez ($3,400). He's .357 over 14 AB vs. Kyle Hendricks
-I'm not sure what it is about Dansby Swanson but I have a feeling he's going to have a good day hitting today.
Two hitters I'd avoid:
- Carlos Correa ($3,700) - he's o for 5 against Jaime Garcia, most of the Houston Batters I like, not him.
- Avisail Garcia ($3,500) - He's 1 for 14 against Phil Hughes. Plus the whole rain possibility.
Sample Lineup
Jonathan Lucroy (C)
Miguel Cabrera (1B)
Jose Altuve (2B)
Anthony Rendon (3B)
Dansby Swanson (SS) Michael Conforto (OF) Go with Jay Bruce or Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez (OF)
Tommy Pham (OF)