Daily Fantasy MLB picks for Sunday, April 30

It is the Yankees’ world and we are all just living in it.

Really, those bats are just torrid at the moment. Finding a way to fade the Evil Empire today is going to be problematic...but we are going to try anyway. Especially in tournaments.

Target: Chris Archer ($9,100) @ Toronto

2017: 32.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9

Other than the recent exception on April 24 when Archer issued five walks to the Baltimore Orioles, the young ace has tamed his propensity to give away the free pass this season. He entered the game against Baltimore with a decent 2.8 BB/9. Archer is still striking out tons of hitters this year—24% of left-handed hitters and 23% of right-handed hitters. He is, however, allowing 43.8% hard contact to lefty bats. I can’t name a threatening Toronto lefty hitter besides Kendrys Morales, though. And one bat isn’t enough to make me lose interest in a stud pitcher. After all, the Blue Jays have the ninth-worst K-rate in the MLB against right-handed pitching (23.4%) and rank 26th in ISO (.129). They also rank 28th in wOBA (.279) and 28th in wRC+ (77). In short, Toronto has been BAD against right-handed pitching. And Archer has elite strikeout stuff. Sign me up.

Stack Against: Bronson Arroyo with St. Louis Cardinals

2017: 21.0 IP, 6.86 ERA, 6.86 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 2.57 HR/9

I’ll be honest here...I am torn on who to stack today. I keep finding mini-stacks and one-off plays that I like, and I think there are multiple red herrings that will be popular choices today. But I keep circling the wagons back to picking on Arroyo. So far in 2017 the 40-year-old is giving up 35.1% hard contact to right-handed hitters, so we’ll focus on that split. Right-handed hitters are slashing .326/.370/.705 against him with a .450 wOBA. Left-handed hitters are only slashing .158/.220/.342 with a .245 wOBA—but that comes with a .138 BABIP. Left-handers have traditionally gotten to Arroyo more than right-handed hitters...so this looks like a scenario where an old pitcher could get roughed up from both sides of the plate. Against a righty pitcher I like Aledmys Diaz (.232 ISO, .370 wOBA), Matt Carpenter (.181 ISO, .374 wOBA), Dexter Fowler (.160 ISO, .340 wOBA), and Stephen Piscotty (.168 ISO, .335 wOBA). You can consider Randal Grichuk (.235 ISO, .337 wOBA) but know that he comes with a career 31.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Hitting:

Aaron Judge has an insane 62.5% hard contact rate against southpaws so far...that’s only 15 plate appearances but 4 for 12 with a pair of home runs already is scary. Especially when you consider his opponent is Wade Miley. Miley has allowed 38.6% hard contact to RHH so far this season.

My “red herrings” list is long today. I am not interested in Noah Syndergaard or Dallas Keuchel (hence my Archer pick). Any time the word “MRI” is mentioned regarding a pitcher it cannot be a good thing (Syndergaard). Keuchel has been on fire this year but his strikeout upside is always limited—and I want the upside in my lineups.

I am not interested in stacking against Chase De Jong with Cleveland Indians. De Jong has a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in the minor leagues and he sounds like a guy that can surprise in his first big league start. That said, the environment in Cleveland is good for hitting today, so I may have to weave an Indian or two into my lineups. The wind is blowing out to center at around 18 mph today. Don’t forget about guys like Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager on the flipside of this game—Josh Tomlin isn’t scary.

I think Mike Foltynewicz is sneaky today. An away game at Miller Park is not the spot I want to use him in, but I think he is going to subdue this Brewers lineup enough to get the job done.

That’s all for me today. Check back in tomorrow morning for more MLB DFS thoughts. Feel free to comment below as I will be checking in and out all day. Let’s all get through this together, ladies and gents!