Full docket of games today at any and all times, makes for a fun time selecting no? Just to run through the numbers: 15 games being played at times ranging from 1:40pm to 10:15pm. We have aces (Noah Syndergaard) we have aces who are still finding their way (Rick Porcello, Johnny Cueto), we have aged vets (Cole Hamels) and we have some possible up and comers (James Paxton). The good news is that this means it's not a dog fight over 1-2 picks there are a myriad of possibilities that can win your league, it also means there is a lot of information to crunch. My first outing was...well pretty horrible. I'm hoping to rebound some today.
Weather (as of now):
Toronto vs. St. Louis has me concerned with some rain.
Kansas City vs. CWS / Minn vs. Texas and LAD vs. SF all have a strong pick up of wind (15mph +)
Target: Jose Quintana ($8,500) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City (Nathan Kerns)
Jose has now posted 3 starts with an ERA over 4.00 in his first 4 appearances this season. This coming from a 2016 All-Star who is insistent that "It's the first month, and I want to be in a better position, but this happens." That might not sound like much, but to me, he's not in his own head, just needs to tweak some minor things and it will all fall in place. What's great about this situation is he is currently the 10th most expensive pitcher but I think he can post top 5 numbers today. Kansas City has mustered up just 11 runs during their 6 game losing streak. Ned Yost says the rally in the 9th last night will give them some momentum going into today's contest, I am optimistic that the White Sox can complete the sweep and deliver a 7th loss to them.
Stack Against: Wei-Yin Chen ($8,400) Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Coming off a seven inning, no hit effort against the Mariners last week I am very BEARISH on Wei-Yin today.
First - Expected Regression. This is a guy who is a career 3.90ERA, which isn't bad, but throwing his xFIP into the mix (4.75) I imagine one of these starts is going to crumble. This brings me to...
Second - Why I think this is that start. Ironically, he's pitching MUCH better on the Road then at home (0 and 1.50 ERA on the road vs. 18 ERA at home), this changes today. The Phillies have had his number for quite some time now. There are 6 players with at least 6 AB against him and an AVG OVER .300 (Maikel Franco, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Daniel Nava and Michael Saunders). There are 5 batters with at least 10 AB against him and an ERA OVER 2.50 (Maikel Franco, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Daniel Nava, Odubel Herrera and Tommy Joseph)
Third - Greater than 5 days rest (he's currently on 8 going into this start) last year he was 0-3 with a 5.69 ERA.
Three Hitters I like:
- Norichika Aoki ($2,800) looked great last night posting 3 hits in 4 AB's. Tonight the Indians are pitching Trevor Bauer and Norichika has a career .385 against him over 13 AB's.
- Billy Hamilton ($3,600) has a .417 with 12 AB's against Wily Peralta, add in the Stolen Base capabilities (which can only occur if he can get on base..which it looks like he can, and you have a good opportunity here.
- JT Realmuto ($2,700) is batting .400 against Philadelphia's Vince Velasquez. That's not bad value for a catcher.
By Selecting these three I was also able to get Kris Bryant and Robinson Cano. Tyler Glasnow is a wild card, he has skill but has struggled early, I'm hoping the Cubs can bounce back but I could also see the cards lining up for a good start from Glasnow.