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Starter Watch List: Week 4 weekday edition

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Watch for these Probable Starters in Week 4

MLB: Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Andrew Villa-USA TODAY Sports

These are some of the pitchers who will be starting the days of 4/24/17-4/27/17. All pitchers listed are 75% owned or less in ESPN fantasy leagues, so there is a chance you can still find them on your waiver wire. Each pitcher has a grade by their name which is a match up grade to give you an idea of how the potential match up looks for the probable starter.

*SC/HC= Soft Contact/Hard Contact on batted balls

Monday, 4/24

Jason Vargas @ Chicago White Sox (Grade: D+)

Vargas has the started the season off strong by posting a 0.44 ERA through 20.2 innings. I expect this to change on Monday when he faces a White Sox team that has hit well against the veteran left-hander.

  • 2017- 0.44 ERA, 0.96 FIP, 10.02 K/9, 0.87 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.00 GB/FB, 20.4/26.5 SC/HC, 23.4 O-Swing, 13.4 SwStr
  • 2016- 2.25 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 8.25 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 0.75 GB/FB, 15.2/33.3 SC/HC, 32.0 O-Swing, 10.1 SwStr
  • Career- 4.11 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 6.00 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9, 0.88 GB/FB, 19.1/28.1 SC/HC, 29.9 O-Swing, 8.4 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active White Sox- .306/.359/.583, 2 HR, 39 PA
  • Career @ U.S. Cellular Field- .283/.333/.554, 7 HR, 99 PA

Martin Perez vs. Minnesota Twins (Grade: C+)

Perez is one of my favorites going into the week. He is facing a Twins lineup that has struggled to produce against him. The Twins do have a lot of power potential in their lineup, but fantasy owners should not be too worried about that as Perez has limited batters to only 0.77 HR/9 over his career.

  • 2017- 3.60 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 7.20 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 1.56 GB/FB, 15.9/41.3 SC/HC, 24.7 O-Swing, 6.6 SwStr
  • 2016- 4.39 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 4.67 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 2.02 GB/FB, 15.9/30.7 SC/HC, 31.7 O-Swing, 7.9 SwStr
  • Career- 4.26 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 5.48 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 1.93 GB/FB, 13.7 SC/HC, 31.0 O-Swing, 8.1 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Twins- .176/.256/.176, 0 HR, 38 PA
  • Career @ Rangers Park- .272/.327/.327, 20 HR, 1127 PA

Tuesday, 4/25

Kendall Graveman @ Los Angeles Angels (Grade D)

Graveman will face an Angels lineup at their home stadium on Tuesday. The Angels have absolutely killed Graveman when he pitches at Angels Stadium. Graveman has had a good start to the year, but I would expect Tuesday be a little speed bump for the 26 year old’s season.

  • 2017- 2.00 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 6.00 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 1.21 GB/FB, 11.5/36.5 SC/HC, 29.7 O-Swing, 8.4 SwStr
  • 2016- 4.11 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 5.23 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 1.90 GB/FB, 17.0/29.1 SC/HC, 28.2 O-Swing, 7.4 SwStr
  • Career- 3.97 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 5.58 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 1.83 GB/FB, 16.3/29.0 SC/HC, 28.2 O-Swing, 7.6 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Angels- .315/.356/.492, 5 HR, 131 PA
  • Career @ Angels Stadium- .326/.365/.461, 3 HR, 96 PA

Wei-Yin Chen @ Philadelphia Phillies (Grade: D)

Chen is coming off a game in which he no hit the Mariners until he was taken out of the game in the 7th inning. Expect Tuesday to be more like the game before when he faced the Mets, giving up 2 home runs until he was taken out in the 3rd inning.

  • 2017- 3.93 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 5.63 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 0.74 GB/FB, 21.6/27.5 SC/HC, 31.9 O-Swing, 7.9 SwStr
  • 2016- 4.96 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 7.30 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 1.61 HR/9, 1.06 GB/FB, 15.8/35.1 SC/HC, 30.1 O-Swing, 9.1 SwStr
  • Career- 3.90 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 6.99 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9, 0.97 GB/FB. 17.5/30.3 SC/HC, 30.7 O-Swing, 8.6 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Phillies- .344/.359/.500, 3 HR, 92 PA
  • Career @ Citizens Bank Park- .340/.340/.500, 2HR, 51 PA

Robert Gsellman vs. Atlanta Braves (Grade: C+)

Gsellman has not had much success against the active Atlanta Braves team, but it is a very small sample so do not read too much into the statistics against Gsellman. Gsellman is great at limiting the long ball, and in a Braves lineup that does not feature a lot of power means the Braves may not put a single ball into the stands Tuesday.

  • 2017- 5.09 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 10.19 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 1.02 HR/9, 2.45 GB/FB, 21.6/35.3 SC/HC, 33.2 O-Swing, 7.5 SwStr
  • 2016- 2.42 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 8.46 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 0.20 HR/9, 2.32 GB/FB, 18.1/28.3 SC/HC, 30.5 O-Swing, 9.1 SwStr
  • Career- 3.18 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 8.95 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 2.36 GB/FB, 19.1/30.3 SC/HC, 31.3 O-Swing, 8.6 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Braves- .333/.391/.476, 1 HR, 36 PA
  • Career @ Citi Field- .254/.314/.348, 1 HR, 156 PA

Patrick Corbin vs. San Diego Padres (Grade: C)

Corbin is looking more like his 2013 self than what he showed us last year, which is a great sight to see. Tuesday he is facing a rebuilding Padres team that is only hitting .214 as of 4/22/17. Corbin will have to be careful however pitching to the young Padres’ prospects Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as they hit left-handed pitching quite well.

  • 2017- 3.27 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 6.14 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 1.54 GB/FB, 14.5/25.0 SC/HC, 31.1 O-Swing, 7.9 SwStr
  • 2016- 5.15 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 7.57 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9, 2.01 GB/FB, 14.8/33.7 SC/HC, 31.8 O-Swing, 9.5 SwStr
  • Career- 4.11 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 7.60 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 1.6 GB/FB, 14.8/33.7 SC/HC, 33.6 O-Swing, 9.9 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Padres- .318/.357/.485, 2 HR, 70 PA
  • Career @ Chase Field- .258/.313/.416, 32 HR, 1233 PA

Wednesday, 4/26

Nate Karns @ Chicago White Sox (Grade: C)

Karns has been the player the Royals wanted him to be when they brought over in the off-season last year. He will go up a White Sox lineup that is in full rebuild mode this year, so maybe this will be his chance to prove what he can do for the Royals on the mound.

  • 2017- 6.35 ERA, 6.84 FIP, 7.41 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 2.65 HR/9, 1.81 GB/FB, 20.0/28.0 SC/HC, 26.7 O-Swing, 10 SwStr
  • 2016- 5.15 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 9.64 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 1.10 GB/FB, 18.7/30.6 SC/HC, 28.2 O-Swing, 10.9 SwStr
  • Career- 4.35 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 9.05 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9, 1.16 GB/FB, 19.1/32.4 SC/HC, 28.3 O-Swing, 9.9 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active White Sox- .273/.351/.606, 3 HR, 37 PA
  • Career @ U.S. Cellular Field- .158/.238/.368, 1 HR, 21 PA

Zach Davies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Grade: C)

Davies was a sight for sore eyes for Brewers fans (like me), as we featured a very poor starting rotation like we have the past 10 years. This year he is posting a 8.24 ERA but his FIP is 4.78. This still is not good but it shows us that he has given up a lot of his runs due to the poor fielding behind him. Davies is going up against a Reds lineup that is not very menacing offensively, so we should see that ERA go down a bit on Wednesday.

  • 2017- 8.24 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 7.32 K/9, 4.58 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9, 1.25 GB/FB, 24.3/35.7 SC/HC, 24.3 O-Swing, 7.5 SwStr
  • 2016- 3.97 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 1.40 GB/FB, 19.7/33.8 SC/HC, 30.3 O-Swing, 8.4 SwStr
  • Career- 4.31 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 7.26 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9, 1.51 GB/FB, 20.4/33.7 SC/HC, 29.1 O-Swing, 8.6 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Reds- .273/.312/.489, 4 HR, 93 PA
  • Career @ Miller Park- .263/.317/.444, 19 HR, 564 PA

Taijuan Walker vs San Diego Padres (Grade: B-)

As of right now, it is looking like the Mariners are the winners from the trade with the Diamondbacks this past off-season, in which brought over Walker. Walker is a very impressive young pitcher who command seems to have improved with age. The worry with Walker is the high amount of home runs hit off him. Over his career batters have averaged 1.33 HR/9 against Walker, but he has held batters to 0.83 HR/9 this year so maybe this poor statistic will be fixed in 2017.

  • 2017- 4.57 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 9.14 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 0.83 HR/9, 1.16 GB/FB, 14.9/35.8 SC/HC, 27.5 O-Swing, 10.7 SwStr
  • 2016- 4.22 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 7.97 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 1.81 HR/9, 1.16 GB/FB, 20.8/28.6 SC/HC, 31.8 O-Swing, 10.0 SwStr
  • Career- 4.21, 4.23 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 1.33 HR/9, 1.11 GB/FB, 17.9/29.3 SC/HC, 30.4 O-Swing, 10.0 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Padres- .267/.250/.400, 0 HR, 15 PA
  • Career @ Chase Field- .292/.314/.563, 2 HR, 51 PA

Thursday, 4/27

Tyler Skaggs vs Oakland Athletics (Grade: D+)

Skaggs is finally healthy and it is good to see. He has been disappointing to start the season as he has posted a 5.19 ERA with poor 0.67 GB/FB. Skaggs should post better numbers as the season continues, but do not expect him to do it against the Athletics Thursday. The active A’s players have killed Skaggs by hitting .316/.386/.474 against him. You know what they say, it has to get worse before it gets better. Hopefully, that is the case with Skaggs in 2017.

  • 2017- 5.19 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 9.87 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9, 0.67 GB/FB, 26.5/22.4 SC/HC, 35.2 O-Swing, 12.6 SwStr
  • 2016- 4.17 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 9.06 K/9, 4.17 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 1.27 GB/FB, 21.5/33.3 SC/HC, 28.3 O-Swing, 8.1 SwStr
  • Career- 4.65 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 7.69 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9, 1.27 GB/FB, 18.5/30.8 SC/HC, 29.8 O-Swing, 8.9 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Athletics- .316/.386/.474, 1 HR, 43 PA
  • Career @ Angels Stadium- .295/.352/.453, 10 HR, 331 PA

Sean Manaea @ Los Angeles Angels (Grade: B+)

Manaea has been really good this year if you look past his 4.43 ERA. He has shown us swing and miss stuff all while limiting the number of base runners and home runs against him. He is facing an Angels lineup who he has absolutely dominated, and would most likely have a A grade for this match up if the Angels did not have someone by the name of Trout in their lineup.

  • 2017- 4.43 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.48 K/9, 4.84 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 2.83 GB/FB, 22.6/32.1 SC/HC, 32.1 O-Swing, 14.3 SwStr
  • 2016- 3.86 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 7.71 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 1.27 GB/FB, 18.4/33.6 SC/HC, 35.4 O-Swing, 11.8 SwStr
  • Career- 3.93 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 18.9/33.4 SC/HC, 34.8 O-Swing, 12.2 SwSt
  • Career vs. Active Angels- .242/.329/.387, 2 HR, 68 PA
  • Career @ Angels Stadium- .213/.288/.426, 3 HR, 52 PA

Adam Conley @ Philadelphia Phillies (Grade: C)

Conley has pitched well against the active Phillies team, but when his performance at Citizens Bank Park has been disappointing to say the least. The positive thing to come out of both these performances is the fact that no one has hit a home run off him. If Conley can continue to limit the long ball like he did last year, Conley should walk away with the W on Thursday.

  • 2017- 3.00 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 7.00 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, 0.86 GB/FB, 18.9/34.0 SC/HC, 24.8 O-Swing, 10.4 SwStr
  • 2016- 3.85 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 8.37 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 0.93 GB/FB, 20.5/31.3 SC/HC, 29.5 O-Swing, 9.8 SwStr
  • Career- 3.75 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 8.12 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 0.95 GB/FB, 20.7/28.6 SC/HC, 29.7 O-Swing, 9.9 SwStr
  • Career vs. Active Phillies- .254/.304/.302, 0 HR, 68 PA
  • Career @ Citizens Bank Park- .292/.320/.354, 0 HR, 50 PA

Poll

What match-up are you buying into?

This poll is closed

  • 2%
    Martin Perez vs. Twins
    (1 vote)
  • 22%
    Robert Gsellman vs. Braves
    (8 votes)
  • 11%
    Patrick Corbin vs. Padres
    (4 votes)
  • 25%
    Taijuan Walker vs. Padres
    (9 votes)
  • 37%
    Sean Manaea vs. Angels
    (13 votes)
35 votes total Vote Now