Valspar Championship: Expert Picks

What: Valspar Championship
When: March 9^th -€” 12^th
Where: Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, FL
2016 Winner: Charl Schwartzel (-7) 
Purse: $6.3MM total (Winner -€” $1.1MM

Course: Innisbrook Resort: The Copperhead course, which was the second course at Innisbrook behind the Island Course, was built in 1974 and designed by Larry Packard. This 72 hole course is surrounded mostly by nature's best with few houses laid out throughout the course. The fairways, which are fairly open and surrounded by trees, will wind back and forth using multiple dog legs but aptly guiding the players through it with few tactfully placed traps and instead properly placed approach shots. The true test comes in the ‘Snake Pit' which make up the final 3 holes in the course. If players can navigate this at the close of their rounds, then they can succeed.

A.
Luke Donald. Bill Haas and Gary Woodland are enticing but I'm going with the player who has the longest history of success here. His 2017 season has been respectable with 3 top 25 finishes and a missed cut. It's a short course and he's ranked 24^th in shots gained around the green and 12^th in shots gained putting. His history here:
2016: 22^nd
2015: 53^rd
2014: 4^th
2013: 4^th
2012: 1^st
2010: 6^th

B:
Charles Howell III. He sailed through the Northern Trust and then faltered at Honda Classic. That's fine because he tends to rebound at the Valspar Championship. I feel like you can set an early season watch by his tendencies, when he's comfortable with a course he's consistent. His last three years at Innisbrook:
2016 -€” 5^th
2015 -€” 10^th
2014 -€” 14^th

Justin Thomas. Last time I used him, he won (SBS Tournament of Champions) so I'm hoping for a repeat. He's hit a bit of a cold streak over the last 4  (Missed Cut, 39^th, Missed Cut and 5^th) but coming off that strong 5^th place start at the World Gold Championship -€” Mexico, coupled with his strong performance here, I think he can be a top ten finish:
2016 -€” 18^th
2015 -€” 10^th

C.
Jason Dufner. There are some quality C-level guys this year so when I can, I will use them. You may have noticed a trend with my picks, they have a history of success here, same with Dufner:
2016 -€” 22^nd
2015 -€” 24^th
2014 -€” 14^th
He's accurate off the tee (14^th on the tour) and great on approach shots within 100 yards (top 25 from 50-125 yards).

Dark Horse:
Graham Delaet  - 5^th in Bogey Avoidance,  3^rd in par 5 scoring and 5^th in proximity to the hole at Innisbrook he knows it well  (his last two times here yielded top ten finishes). Add in his 3 consecutive top 20 finishes and he's playing well right now.