Arnold Palmer Invitational: Expert Picks

What: Arnold Palmer Invitational
When: March 16^th -19^th
Where: Bay Hill & Lodge
2016 Winner: Jason Day (-17) 
Purse: $8.7MM total (Winner -$1.6MM)

Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge.  Built by Bob Simmons in 1961, it was Dick Wilson who actually designed the course. This 7,400 yard par 72 is a good mixture with some challenges to get from tee to green. The greens themselves are slightly elevated which stresses good approach shots.  A few doglegs run around water with traps accurately placed around the pin on many greens. The Bermuda grass and length stress importance of good accurate Tee and Iron shots. The final three holes, much like Valspar will be a good test to the overall round

A.
Louis Oosthuzien. Is there any golfer whose name is more fun to attempt to pronounce (wʊst.haɪzən)?  The South African who won the Open Championship in 2010 is solid in both 2017 and at this tournament. He can scramble: 1^st in scrambling from the fringe, 30^th in shots gained around the green. He can drive: 17^th in shots gained Tee to Green, 25^th in shots gained off the tee and 17^th in driving efficiency. Putting is NOT his strong suit (100+ ranking in most relevant putting categories). Among his 2017 PGA starts he has two finishes in the 40's and two top 25 finishes (no missed cuts). His last time at the Arnold Palmer Invitiational was 2015 when he finished 9^th, 

B:
Kevin Na. He put together a great string of tournaments averaging 35^th with a handful of top 20 finishes until Valspar. What I'm really looking at is his history here. He did not play last year but -6^th in 2015, 14^th in 2014 and 4^th in 2012. He is particularly strong in shots gained approaching (25^th) and around the green (19^th).

Kevin Kisner. First, he has a terrible track record here (Missed Cut last year, 49^th in 2015) , ok now let's work to mitigate that fact. Below are his 2017 tournaments played. For anyone keeping track at home that's 5 top 25 finishes in 6 tournaments. 
Franklin Templeton -4th place
Sony Open in Hawaii - 4th place
CareerBuilder Challenge - 25th place
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - 10th place
The Honda Classic - 48th place 
World Golf Championships - Mexico Championship - 11th place.

C.
Henrik Stenson. He's a must start here. I got burned two weeks ago at the World Golf Championships in Mexico when he withdrew but he bounced back with a resounding statement finishing 7th at Valspar last week.  He is the best among the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:
2016: 3^rd
2015: 2^nd
2014: 5^th
2013: 8^th
2012: 15^th

Dark Horse:
Jason Kokrak. Up until Saturday and Sunday at Valspar, he had shot 9 straight rounds of 72 or under. He had some rough shots at the end of Valspar which dropped him down to 58^th but his last 3 tournaments have shown solid play all around. He is now 14^th in shots gained off the tee, 17^th in driving distance, and 23^rd in going for the green.  He finished 20^th here last year, 6^th in 2015 and 4^th in 2014.