For the third time in MLB History, the reigning MVP has been traded in the off-season. Giancarlo Stanton is moving to New York Yankees in exchange for Starlin Castro, prospects, and a whole lot of cap relief, and we’re here to examine the fantasy implications.
Impact to Giancarlo Stanton
The trade to the Yankees undoubtedly bumps up Stanton’s value, but that could be said of almost any of the potential landing spot outside of San Francisco and San Diego. Marlins Park was ranked 25th in HR Park Factors (via ESPN.com) and his move to Yankee Stadium moves him to the 2nd ranked stadium. Stanton is signed through 2027 (the driving force for the Marlins to move today’s best power hitter) so his value moves the same in re-draft and dynasty formats. I had Stanton at #5 in my 2018 rankings prior to today, and not moving him anywhere post-trade. I do think the move boosts his value, but not enough to jump past Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt or Arenado.
Impact to Yankees
Judge and Stanton in the same lineup together is going to be so fun to watch. It is interesting that both are power hitters who spent the majority of their time in the #2 hole in 2017. Judge’s .422 OBP compared to Stanton’s .376 has me leaning with Judge batting second, Stanton third, followed by Gary Sanchez/Didi Gregorius.
One of the most interesting jumps in value will be for Brett Gardner or Aaron Hicks, whichever one claims the leadoff spot in the Bronx. Gardner is the incumbent and probably sticks but don’t count out Hicks and his .372 OBP last season. This team is going to score an insane amount of runs after finishing 2nd in the MLB last year at 858 Rs (5.3 Runs per game!!) and now they’ve added the reigning MVP.
Trading Starlin Castro also opens up the door for Gleyber Torres at 2B. I wouldn’t bet on him being the opening day starter, but expect him to log significant time at the keystone for the Yankees in 2018. He’ll be moving up my re-draft league rankings by a couple dozen spots.
Impact to Miami Marlins
Every player should be dinged in the rankings because of this trade. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour are looking at lower counting stats across the board. Stanton spent 110 games batting in the #2 hole for Miami so no one will likely move spots in the batting order, but the RBI opportunities presented to Yelich (81 RBIs) and Ozuna (124 RBIs) last year will decrease in 2018. Making this deal even more unfortunate for the Marlins fantasy outlook is the lack of replacement option in the minor leagues. Brian Miller, Stone Garrett, and Brayan Hernandez are all still in A-ball and not ready to fill the void left by Stanton.
Details of the prospects involved are leaking out slowly, but it appears no top Yankees prospects are involved. Worth nothing the strength of the Yankees farm system and the fact that even a 10-20th ranked prospect in that system would likely make the Marlins Top 10.
If we combined the @MLBPipeline lists for the @Yankees and @Marlins into one Top 30, there would be 22-25 current Yankees prospects and 5-8 current Marlins on that list. https://t.co/gmY10i6rhP— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) December 9, 2017