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NFL Week 14 FanDuel picks: Tyreek Hill about to torch the Raiders

Four buys, sells and steals this week in DFS.

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

I never thought I’d say this in my life, but hooray for the Jets! Josh McCown and the somehow high flying Jets offense were able to take advantage of a very vulnerable Chiefs defense and get Robby Anderson a lot of points, exactly 1.4 points more than my success line sooooo THAT’S A WIN! Holy mackerel it’s a good thing I didn’t make Jordan Howard my start of the week. My goodness that was an utter failure.

While I was right about Ben Roethlisberger falling back to Earth against the Bengals, I thought he’d crash to the surface of this planet a little bit harder than he did. Oh, and Corey Davis got you 2 points last week. Should have made Sexy Rexy my steal last week. Poop.

Season record: 13-23

Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.

With all that said, here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.

Buy

QB Jameis Winston vs Lions ($7,200): It’s lucky that fantasy football doesn’t have a category called “stupid decisions” and you get -5 for every one your quarterback makes because that would basically take Winston out of fantasy contention. Instead, we just chalk it up to a fumble or interception and move on. Phew. Winston managed 18.6 points against the Packers last week and this week faces a Lions’ defense that has been giving up 20+ points a game over the last three weeks. In fact, they’ve allowed a top-seven fantasy quarterback in three of their last four contests, including the likes of Deshone Kizer and Joe Flacco. EAT THAT W JAMEIS!

RB Samaje Perine vs Chargers ($6,600): To pull the sheet off the piano, I’m about 40% writing this because I hope that if I put “Samaje Perine will play really well” vibes out into the world, they’ll come true because I need him to pull me out of the bottom of my league. But there’s 60% of me that’s writing this because I do think Perine will have a big week against a Chargers’ defense that has given up 22 points to opposing backs this season. Plus, Perine has gone over 100 yards rushing in two of the past three games and the Chargers have allowed the second most total yards to running backs this season.

WR Tyreek Hill vs Raiders ($7,800): SPEED. SPEED. SPEED. That’s what this pick is all about. Not only is the Raiders defense just bad, they’re even worse at containing wide receivers with breakaway speed. Look no further than when Brandin Cooks torched them for 149 yards and a touchdown. Or Mike Wallace posting 133 yards back in Week 5. Or when Hill went up against them the first time this season and had a cool 125 through the air and a touchdown. Something in my tummy tells me Hill will ride his ridiculous 30 point performance last week into this game.
Success line: 16 points

TE Jimmy Graham vs Jaguars ($6,900): The Jaguars are really really really good at limiting opposing wide receivers but they’re pretty average when it comes to containing tight ends. Graham on the other hand has been far from average recently, scoring at least a touchdown in each of the last four games. While Graham has done most of his damage in the redzone, I expect him to have a bigger impact all over the field given how well the Jaguars shutdown opposing receivers. Russell Wilson will need to throw the ball somewhere and I’d expect Graham to be that guy.

Sell

QB Cam Newton vs Vikings ($7,700): While Cam has looked like the Cam of old in recent weeks—he’s scored 20 or more in three of the last four weeks and is averaging 19.8 points per game—he faces a very tough Vikings defense that are allowing just 13.9 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and they’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards from the QB position. Plus, don’t you just feel like a Cam stinker is coming? With quarterbacks with better matchups cheaper than him (I did JUST write about Jameis) I’d pass on Cam this week.

RB Todd Gurley vs Eagles ($8,500): I’ve been captaining the “Todd Gurley will let you down during the fantasy playoffs” ship and I’m not about to change my opinions now. Gurley is going up against the best run defense in the NFL, one that has only given up four total rushing touchdowns this season and 11.9 points per game to opposing backs over the last three weeks. Despite this very unwelcome matchup, Gurley is still the fourth most expensive back on FanDuel. This is a value play people, don’t waste $8.5k on Gurley when there are much better matchups out there to take advantage of. Gotta stay on #brand baby.
Success line: under 14 points

WR Robby Anderson vs Broncos ($7,700): Fantasy sports is truly a week to week game. One week you can be my start of the week and bring me home my only win, the next you can be a sit. I’m sorry to have to do this to you Robby but I have to. Right of the bat, Anderson is struggling with a hamstring injury which isn’t great to hear, but more importantly, the Broncos are fourth best defense at limiting opposing wide receivers. Finally, Anderson is currently the sixth most expensive receiver this week, right below Hill. That’s a lot of money to invest in a possibly injured receiver who’s facing a top 5 defense.

WR Doug Baldwin vs Jaguars ($7,400): Like I said above regarding Jimmy Graham, the Jaguars are really really really good at limiting opposing wide receivers. Like really good. Like 17 points per game good. Maybe you were thinking that the amazingness of Russell Wilson could break through this defense and that Baldwin would be the beneficiary but I’m not so sure about that. Besides, that guy will be Graham.

Steals

RB Jay Ajayi vs Rams ($5,800): The Rams have been giving up the second most points to opposing running backs over the last three weeks and Ajayi always seems to pull off the long touchdown run. I think he’s got another one in him this week.
Success line: 8 points

RB Giovani Bernard vs Bears ($5,100): If Joe Mixon is out with a concussion this week—which it’s looking more and more like he will—Bernard is a great play against a very average Bears defense.

WR Kenny Golladay vs Buccaneers ($5,100): The Buccaneers are AWFUL at stopping the pass and Golladay is the exact big play, downfield threat Tampa has struggled with all season.

TE Hunter Henry vs Washington ($5,600): Henry is rekindling some of his rookie year success and is about to face a Washington defense that has surrendered the most yardage to tight ends on the road.

Poll

Which lock has the best chance of coming true?

This poll is closed

  • 47%
    Tyreek Hill (16 points)
    (20 votes)
  • 23%
    Todd Gurley (under 14 points)
    (10 votes)
  • 28%
    Jay Ajayi (8 points)
    (12 votes)
42 votes total Vote Now