FanPost

Steamer Projections: Aaron Judge vs Joey Gallo

I'm thankful for projection services such as Steamer, that are not only free, but made available early each off season. As a fantasy baseball manager that creates his own projections, it's always nice to have a few free sets of projections available to the public. Not only is it a way to ensure I do not get overly hyped or crazy on a particular player, but it's also great to know what the majority of my league-mates are using to make their draft or auction decisions.

Take for example, Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge.

Using the 2018 Steamer Projections available at FanGraphs, we can see that Joey Gallo is actually projected for more home runs than Aaron Judge.

While Gallo has some of the best power in the game, this projection seems to be unfairly regressing Judge's home run total.

Of course we could start with the fact that Judge hit 52 home runs last season to Gallo's 41 - but that's last year.

What could be causing Steamer to believe more in Gallo (projected 43 HR) than Judge (projected 38 HR)?

Last season Aaron Judge had an ISO of .343, for which Steamer has reduced to .263 for 2018. Joey Gallo meanwhile had an ISO of .327 last season, with a Steamer projected .287 ISO for 2018.

Both players are near three-true outcome players, but even in BB/K, Judge was the better hitter in 2017 with a 0.61 BB/K vs Gallo's 0.38 BB/K.

Using wRC+ from 2017: Judge - 173 | Gallo - 123

In terms of Hard% (found at FanGraphs), Gallo does have the slight edge with a 46.4% Hard% over Judge's 45.3% from last season.

While Gallo may have hit the ball slightly harder a few more times than Judge, you're still dealing with an even worse contact hitter in Gallo.

This is really evidenced in each hitter's SwStr% found at FanGraphs. The league average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) in 2017 was 10.4%. Naturally, for power hitters we'll expect something above this (unless you're a Joey Votto like character). Aaron Judge's SwStr% in 2017 was 13.1%. Joey Gallo was considerably worse at 19.2% - Nearly double the league average rate.

This is where my issue with the two projections stem from. I'm not doubting the power displayed by either hitter and they definitely both strike out a ton, but clearly Aaron Judge is a better hitter. So if we all agree that Aaron Judge is the better hitter and hit more home runs in 2017, how in the world can we project Gallo to surpass him in 2018?

This is why you must create your own projections. Yes, it's time consuming. No, it's not always what you "want to be doing".

But do you want to win?

Then be disciplined and put in the time.

For me personally, I have Joey Gallo projected at 44 home runs and Aaron Judge projected at 48. The advantage in favor of Judge does not stop there however. Without giving away my full projection (convince Pete Rogers to offer me a writing spot here on the site for my full projection), I'll say Aaron Judge is projected to be worth eleven dollars more than Joey Gallo in 2018 based on my system's numbers.

That's significant.

So again, dig deep, put in the time and effort, especially on players with a limited track record.

Even if you don't have the time to project the entire player pool, because really, Steamer will be fine for a player like Robinson Cano, with an extensive statistical profile to base their numbers off of, please do the work for the unproven or limited track record guys.

Taking Steamer's projection for gospel in a case such as Joey Gallo (685 career plate appearances) or Aaron Judge (773 career plate appearances) is the way you finish out of the money in competitive fantasy baseball environments.

 Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

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