Just two more weeks to go of the regular season, and my Quarterback ROPE Index, WAR ratings and FPAA ratings have pretty much established are all rounding into shape and a clear favourite is becoming established for each of the metrics. As per last week, I've produced all three lists to show the best and worst passers in the league from an efficiency and fantasy standpoint, hopefully to help you make the best decision for your fantasy roster, but also give you an alternative view on who's good and bad in the league.
ROPE Index Rankings: Week 15 (min 100 pass attempts)
The writing is on the wall with the ROPE Index ratings, as Drew Brees has extended his lead at the top of the rankings after another super efficient performance as he led the Saints to their 10th win of the season, posting a 69.7% rating. It was another game where Brees was above 70% completions, which now makes 12 of 14 games where he’s met this mark or better. It continues to baffle me that Brees is getting no MVP love, but I guess that’s what happens when his counting stats are down, despite his incredible efficiency.
Tom Brady bounced back from one of the worst days of his career to post an above average 57.6% rating in the Patriots’ victory over the Steelers. Brady, the likely MVP, now sits over 4% below Drew Brees, but remains in line for a top 5 year in terms of ROPE rating for his illustrious career.
We have a new entry into the ROPE ratings, as Jimmy Garoppolo has now thrown enough passes to be considered for inclusion in the rankings. Jimmy G has gone straight into the top 3, with an average ROPE rating of 61.6% in his three starts, and an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s facing a true test in week 16 however, as the 49ers host the league’s top pass defense in the Jaguars, who have allowed an average ROPE rating of just 30.5% and less than 10 fantasy points per game.
We have a new hottest quarterback alert! After clearly jinxing Philip Rivers last week for pointing out his stellar play over the previous four weeks, he promptly dropped his lowest rating of 2017 in the Chargers’ defeat to the Chiefs (27.3%). He was been replaced at the top of the QB form chart by Blake Bortles, who in the last four weeks has an average ROPE rating of 68.6%, a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and is second in fantasy points per game with 22.31. Bortles has had a career ROPE rating in each of the last three weeks and in week 15, posted a 93.9% rating, the best of week 15 and the best of Bortles’ career to date. Bortles is now up to 18th overall and is looking at another favourable matchup in week 16 against the 49ers, who have the 26th rated pass defense. Bortles is in prime position to continue his purple (or teal) patch as the Jaguars head towards clinching the AFC South and a home playoff game.
It wasn’t only Blake Bortles who posted a career ROPE rating in week 15, Brock Osweiler came off the bench to replace the injured Trevor Siemian, and promptly led the Broncos to victory with a ROPE of 89.4%. Osweiler led the league this week with a whopping 11.4 yards per attempt and 16.2 yards per completion against the Colts’ bottom 5 pass defense and had 23.46 fantasy points, his highest of the season to date.
The worst ROPE rating of week 15 came from Andy Dalton, who posted a 10.6% rating and just 0.52 fantasy points, both his lowest since the week 1 shut out by the Ravens. DeShone Kizer (31.9%) remains rooted to the bottom of the season long rankings after another sub-par performance as the Browns lost again. Kizer is currently on course for the worst season since Blaine Gabbert’s rookie season of 2011, where he finished with a 29.9% rating in 14 games.
WAA/WAR Ratings: Week 15 (min 6 games)
Similarly to the ROPE Index above, Drew Brees has really separated himself from the rest with his consistent QB play and has contributed a win more to his team's record than any other player. With just a league average quarterback in for the Saints instead of Brees, the Saints would be 6-8 and out of the playoff picture.
Alex Smith's late season resurgence has seen him nearly catch Tom Brady for second place in the WAA ratings, with both quarterbacks contributing a WAA of just under 3 games. Like with Brees, the Chiefs would be out of playoff contention without Smith, though the Patriots would still be hanging around at 8-6 without Brady. With all the top three guys, if there was a replacement level player in their place, the Saints, Patriots and Chiefs would all be out of the playoff hunt, as their WAR ratings are all above 4 for the season to date.
Blake Bortles' turnaround in recent weeks means he now has a net positive WAA rating at +0.45, which leaves four quarterbacks on winning teams who are contributing negatively to their team's success than having the league average quarterback would ( Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco). Taylor and Flacco still have a negatiove WAR rating as well as their play continues to hold back their team during the final push for the playoffs.
FPAA/FPAR Ratings: Week 15 (min 6 games)
Russell Wilson remains the fantasy QB MVP, though his FPAA has dropped from 5.71 to 5.46 this week after his 11.58 fantasy points in week 15 against the Rams. With the Seahawks facing a middling Cowboys pass defense in a game they need to win to cling onto their slimming hopes of making the playoffs, I expect a big performance from Wilson which will cement his position at the top of the FPAA table.
Cam Newton is now up to 4th in the FPAA rankings after another big performance in week 15 where has managed 31.48 fantasy points, a top 10 fantasy performance of 2017. Facing the Buccs in week 16 and their bottom 10 defense, Cam is going to win someone a championship this week.