Bold Predictions Week 16: The Blake Mistake, Don’t Buy In.

Recapping last week’s picks:

1. 4 games or less are decided by 10+ points this week (not including the Denver Indianapolis game).

Outcome: (Grade: D): The Rams over Seahawks game by 35 points and Chiefs over Chargers by 17 really surprised me. I thought it might run one over the 4 but 3 was a bit more than I expected.

2. Derek Carr has at least 2 TD’s and more TDs than Interceptions

Outcome: (Grade: A) He ended with 2 TDs and 0 Interceptions. Spot on.

3. Kenyan Drake rushes for 100+yards for a third. Straight. Game.

Outcome: (Grade: B). He ended the game with 78 yards and a Touchdown, while it wasn’t 100 yards, he certainly rewarded all who started him.

4. Kai Forbath is a top 3 kicker this week.

Outcome: (Grade: B). Depending on formats he was 4^th-6^th territory with a decent week for all who started him.

5. Dede Westbrook has 75+ yards

Outcome: (Grade: D). The CORRECT answer is that everyone EXCEPT Dede has a great game. Keelan Cole (186 yards 1 TD); Jaydon Mickens (61 yards 2 TDs), Corey Grant 69 rushing yards 1 TD) even TJ Yeldon (25 receiving yards, 27 rushing yards) or Tommy Bohanon (2 rushing yards, 2 TDs).

Week 15 Bold Picks:

1. Blake Bortles throws sub 300 yards with at least one interception this week.

Background: The collective football world is on the Blake Train and I am not one of them. Over the last three games he has thrown 7 TDs and 0 Interceptions with a rating of 115+ in each game. Well this week, as they have to travel cross country (the two previous times he’s done this he threw 125 yards at Houston and 160 yards with 0 TDs in Arizona), he will come down to earth in a quick way. Given, it wasn’t exactly quality QB’s but since Jimmy Garoppolo has started for the 49ers they limited Mitchel Trubisky to sub 200 yards, TJ Yates to sub 200 yards, and Marcus Mariota to sub 250 yards.

2. Mitchell Trubisky throws multiple TDs for first time in his career.

Background: He’s playing Cleveland who he apparently was “luke warm” about as a child. The Browns have a decent rush defense which means the Bears will air the ball out more than they normally would. Despite the strong likelihood that it’s cold I think we see a lot of passes in this game.

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3. The Falcons beat the Saints in New Orleans.

Background: 1. Atlanta is 5-2 on the road which is actually better than the 4-4 record they have at home. 2. The Saints crushed the Jets 31-19 last week AND lost to the Falcons the week prior in Atlanta. 3. The Saints, despite their strong year, have some mounting injuries and porous pieces at defensive end (allowing Matt Ryan time to find his target).

4. Drew Stanton is a top 7 Fantasy QB this week.

Background: The injured third string QB who hasn’t played in over a month is facing the Giants who are one of the worst passing defenses in the league and essentially in ‘controller disconnected’ mode. After a terrible start against a strong Rams defense, Drew threw for 200+ yards and at least 1 TD against the 49ers and Seahawks in his next two starts. I think his surprisingly strong start goes under the radar as not too many are paying attention to this game.

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5. The Washington Redskins are a top 5 defense this week (39% owned)

Background: Their last 3 home games they have averaged just over 7 points. Their last three ro

ad games they have averaged 3 points. They are going up against Denver who has won two straight (cough cough against the Jets and Colts) after losing 8 straight mid-season. Taking out the Colts, here is how many points the Broncos put up in their previous 5 road games: 9, 14, 23, 19 and 0. Denver has also thrown 19 interceptions (good enough for 3^rd most in the league) 9 fumbles (11^th most in the league) and Washington is 9^th in picking off opposing QBs.

2017 Report card:

A – 17

B – 12

C – 13

D – 28

Here is how I will be grading my Bold picks this year

A – The bold pick happened as I stated

B – The bold pick did NOT happened as stated but the idea behind it was there (example I predicted Jesse James would have 0 TDs and fewer than 20 yards in week 2, he had 27 yards, the general idea to avoid him in fantasy was present.

C – The bold pick did NOT happen and the overall feel for what occurred had you saying “meh”

D – The bold pick was nowhere near accurate