NFL Week 15 FanDuel picks: Buy Kenyan Drake, sell Jamaal Williams

Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.

Recapping last weekend, thank whatever gods are the opposite of the Fantasy Gods—because we got MAJOR beef—for Jay Ajayi putting together an 8.5 point performance, just half a point more than the success line I set for him. Phew. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill and Todd Gurley did me no favors, both performing WAY below and WAAAAAY above my respective success lines. I thought I’d called Hill perfectly, and so did most of you. Oh well. Such is my luck.

Season record: 14-25

On to Week 15 and here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.

Buy

QB Cam Newton vs Packers ($7,900): Don’t be stunned if Cam emerges from this game as the much better fantasy quarterback. While fantasy jedi Aaron Rodgers is playing—and I did predict that he’d either turn into a dragon or a State Farm ad (both of which would get you tons of fantasy points)—he faces a tough Panthers defense while Cam is facing off against a Packers team that’s given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks the past three weeks (23.5 FPPG). As the seventh most expensive quarterback this week, I’m a big fan of Cam’s value.

RB Kenyan Drake vs Bills ($6,500): It blows my mind that FanDuel doesn’t have Drake higher priced. He’s gone over 20 points the last two games and is facing the WORST defense in the league at limiting opposing running backs. The Bills are giving up a staggering 25.2 FPPG to running backs this season and have surrendered a league high 18 rushing touchdowns. Drake has been the spark that’s suddenly brought around this Miami resurgence and I’d fully expect his production to continue this week. In fact, I’m kind of relying on his production this week so let’s put some good vibes out into the world and make him MY BUY OF THE WEEK!
Success line: 15 points

RB Rex Burkhead vs Steelers ($6,500): Another steal in my opinion this week (but still too much for me to consider him one of my steals), Burkhead is coming off yet another game in which he scored at least one touchdown, making the streak three games. While across the season, the Steelers have been pretty good at limiting opposing backs, in the last three weeks they’ve surrendered the most points in the league, giving up 30.4 FPPG. Dion Lewis could also have a big game but my money's on Sexy Rexy who, as the Patriots have shown time and again, is the touchdown scorer in New England.

WR Josh Gordon vs Ravens ($7,500): I’m doing it. I’m buying the Josh Gordon hype. Through two weeks he’s shown he still has the big play potential that we saw way back in 2014. To help the matter, the Ravens will be without their top cornerback in Jimmy Smith and I fully expect Gordon and the Browns to take advantage. Plus, I picked the Browns to get their first win this week and that means points have to be scored and someone has to score them. Come on down Josh!

Sell

QB Alex Smith vs Chargers ($7,900): This sell is dedicated to those who plan to play the Saturday slate. We all know that after his hot start, Smith has come back to Earth quite a bit and hasn’t been all that exciting a start. Well, things aren’t about get better for him as he’s facing a Chargers defense that’s allowing the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks the last three weeks, a staggering 9.7 points per game. That’s down right insane. For those who are greedy and want a Main Slate sell at quarterback: Matt Ryan. Yes it’s the Bucs but he only posted 16 points against them two weeks ago when Julio Jones broke the world.

RB Jamaal Williams vs Panthers ($7,300): I was going to go with Todd Gurley here again but I think Todd Gurley has earned himself a week off. Williams has been dominate these last five weeks and in fact, only two other running backs have scored more total points than him. That being said, the Panthers just set up a roadblock against the Vikings and limited Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to 60 yards last week. But more than just the Panthers’ run defense, I also kinda feel that with Rodgers back under center, the Packers and McCarthy are going to return to their pass happy attack. Maybe not, but something in my tum tum tells me otherwise.

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs Jaguars ($8,200): Like I say in at least once a week, this sell is more based on price than anything else. We all know how good the two parties are in this equation: Hopkins might be the best wide receiver in football (at the very least the most QB immune) and the Jaguars’ secondary is as good as it gets. What’s not as good as it gets is the Texans’ quarterback situation. I know Hopkins can battle through any quarterback he plays with but T.J. Yates making his first start against this Jags secondary doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.

WR Robby Anderson vs Saints ($7,800): I had Anderson as a sell last week and got that right (humblebrag) as he mustered only 4.2 points against the Broncos. Sadly he’s back on the sell list this week as a) he’s the fifth most expensive receiver and MUCH more importantly b) he no longer has Josh McCown throwing him the football. Get ready for Bryce Petty and his 22.2 completion percentage, not to mention Marshon Lattimore and his stellar rookie season. Woo. Hoo.
Success line: under 10 points

Steals

RB Jonathan Stewart vs Packers ($5,800): Steward is coming off his best game of the season by far and the Packers the eighth most points to opposing backs this season. Yes please.

RB LeGarrette Blount vs Giants ($5,600): It’s Nick Foles time in Philly and my guess is that means an emphasis on the run game. It just so happens the Giants are allowing 30+ points to opposing backs the last three weeks.

WR Dede Westbrook vs Texans ($5,700): Westbrook has only been getting better and the Texans’ defense just gave 334 passing yards to the 49ers. Lock. It. Up.
Success line: 10 points

TE Ricky Seals-Jones vs Washington ($5,300): The Madden rookie is playing against a defense that’s 30th in the league at limiting opposing tight ends, giving up 12.9 FPPG this season. Don’t let me down Ricky!