Why do the DFS Gods hate me so? What have I done to deserve this kind of punishment and complete disregard for my feelings and mental health? Two weeks ago (maybe more now, who can remember) I did the unthinkable and put together a perfect week, getting all three of my locks right. Well, since then the DFS Gods have seen fit to torment me with mockery and jabs. Last week, it was Alex Smith being systematically picked apart by the Giants’ terrible pass defense. This week, Kareem Hunt did none of the things I wanted from him against a Bills’ run defense that had the worst TD% in the league. Actually, I guess DFS Gods, sorry I’m not angry with you. I’m angry with Andy Reid and the little alien behind his moustache that operates him.
Obviously Hunt got nowhere near the 14 points I said he’d score, however Drew Brees did score under the 15 points I said he would so thats a win! Whew, somehow I remembered setting that bar a little lower and I was worried that he blew past it. But NO! VICTORY FOR ME! And then back into the arms of defeat as J.D. McKissic scored around six points instead of the eight I said.
Oh well, you win some, you lose most.
Season record: 12-21
Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.
With all that said, here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.
QB Tyrod Taylor vs Patriots ($7,300): I was going to pick Mr. Bolo this week against the Browns but I figured why not live a little and pick someone who’s not currently the sixth most expensive quarterback. If it’s a true buy, you want a little bit of added value there. I’ve recently become very Bills-friendly given how easy their remaining schedule is and while the Patriots have turned their defense around, they’re still ain’t perfect and have had a history of struggling with Taylor in previous matchups. Plus, given the lack of receiving talent in Buffalo, I could see Belichick focusing on limiting LeSean McCoy and forcing Taylor to beat them. Means more points.
RB Jordan Howard vs 49ers ($7,500): OH BABY I CAN’T WAIT FOR A BOUNCE BACK! Now mayyyyybe this is motivated by some personal feelings and the hope that if I put good vibes out into the fantasy world, good things will come to my fantasy team, but more than that, this is an excellent matchup for Howard. No team allows more points per game to opposing running backs than San Francisco and Howard is certainly talented enough to take advantage of that. Figures crossed this doesn’t turn out to be a Hunt in Buffalo situation, but I’m feeling quite confident right now.
RB Dion Lewis vs Bills ($6,300): Remember all those things I said last week about the Bills being unable to stop the run and prevent teams from scoring on the ground? Well, despite what we saw against the Chiefs last week (because clearly the Chiefs can’t be trusted to do anything in this mixed up world we call fantasy football) that still rings true. I’ve been firmly driving the “start Dion Lewis” train for a few weeks now and this could be another game he takes full advantage of his matchup. He’s scored over 10 points in each of his last three weeks and I would firmly expect that again this week.
WR Robby Anderson ($7,200): Even as a Patriots fan and someone who grew up loathing the Jets, back when they were good and under Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez (god what a time to be alive), I can appreciate Anderson’s rapid rise to both football and fantasy stardom. But primarily fantasy. He’s caught at least one touchdown in every game since Week 7 and I don’t really see that streak breaking against the Chiefs and I don’t really see me being wrong here so I REALLY SEE ME LOCKING THIS IN AS MY BUY OF THE WEEK!!!!!! [crowd goes wild]
Success line: 14 points
QB Ben Roethlisberger vs Bengals ($7,600): Yes, Roethlisberger has been playing very well these last two games, tossing eight touchdowns (five of which have gone to Antonio Brown, let that sink in), but take this recent hot streak with a very large, chunky looking grain of salt. Those two games were both home at Heinz Field where the Steelers and particularly Roethlisberger tend to play their best football. This week however, they’re on the road against the Bengals who have the fifth best pass defense in the NFL (per ROPED) and who’ve held him to a touchdown or less in nine of the last 13 games he’s played against them. Not spending my money on Ben.
Success line: under 15 points
RB Mark Ingram vs Panthers ($8,000): Brent mentioned Ingram as a sit this week in his weekly starts/sits article and I have to agree with him. Right off the bat, Ingram is the sixth most expensive running back despite facing a fifth ranked Panthers’ run defense (per RORD) but more importantly, a defense that’s allowing the fourth least fantasy points to opposing backs. The Panthers’ front seven is hyper athletic which could lead to troubles with Ingram. On the flip side—and here’s a little buy and sell in the same paragraph, you’re welcome—Alvin Kamara’s speed and use in the passing game makes him a more intriguing option in this matchup.
WR A.J. Green vs Steelers ($7,900): As always, I have one sell each week who’s here partly because of matchup but mostly because of cost. Green is this week’s special winner. Now, this is still not a great matchup for Green as the Steelers do have a top five pass defense and held him to only 41 yards the last time they played. But more so, Green is the fifth most expensive receiver, just below DeAndre Hopkins facing the Titans (take advantage of that!) and just above Adam Thielen facing the Falcons. I’m just not sold that Green is going to give you the best bang for your buck.
WR Marvin Jones vs Ravens ($7,100): Before I wow you with my words and reasoning for why Jones should remain on your bench, let me first tell you about how amazing Marvin Jones is. Jones is currently the fourth best receiver in standard leagues in terms of total points, 10th best in PPR. That’s pretty impressive given where I’d expect he was drafted in most every league. But, don’t let what I just said deter you from the fact that you should not start Jones this week. The Ravens have allowed only one passing touchdown at home this season so scoring on this team will be difficult.
Bonus: WR Josh Gordon vs Chargers ($5,800): He hasn’t played in over a year and a half and he’s playing from the Browns. What do you think he’s going to do for you?
RB Rex Burkhead vs Bills ($5,900): The Patriots seem to be using two running backs recently and like I’ve said many times, the Bills give up a lot of rushing touchdowns.
WR Davante Adams vs Buccaneers ($6,500): Here are facts: Brett Hundley looked good against the Steelers, Brett Hundley loves targeting Davante Adams, the Buccaneers can’t cover wide receivers. Queue all. of. the. points.
WR Corey Davis vs Texans ($5,900): COREY DAVIS BREAKOUT GAME???? Here’s to hoping as the Texans have been allowing 31.8 FPPG to opposing receivers the last three weeks.
Success line: 8 points
TE Julius Thomas vs Broncos ($5,200): I’m really only putting Thomas on here because a) revenge game, b) the Broncos can’t cover tight ends, c) Thomas has been playing well and d) REVENGE GAME PEOPLE!!!!!!