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NFL Week 9 FanDuel picks: Buy Michael Thomas, sell A.J. Green

Four buys, sells and steals this week in DFS.

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Thank you everyone who read last week’s article, watched each game, paid attention to what I said and cared enough to care, because you all just witnessed history. That’s right, ya boy just went 3-0 on his locks. Travis Kelce dismantled the Broncos, Keenan Allen was useless against the Patriots and Joe Mixon did just enough to count as a steal.

Hey everyone, come see how good I look.

Season record: 10-11

One good week away from a winning record, LET’S GET IT!

Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.

With all that said, here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.

Buy

Note: Deshaun Watson is the most expensive quarterback in FanDuel this week and had he not just torn his ACL (here’s how you can grieve) I would have told you to start him. He probably would have been my lock. I hate everything.

RB Lamar Miller vs Colts ($7,500): It’s officially Tom Savage time again in Houston. Try to contain your excitement. While Miller has been very consistent this season, he hasn’t been consistently amazing. He’s been consistently alright. I have a feeling that changes Sunday as the Texans face a Colts defense ranked 28th against the run and worst in the league in opposing running back points (per RORD). Given that the Texans haven’t had much time to recover from Watson’s injury, I could see a run heavy approach to help take the pressure of Savage which of course means a lot of Miller.

RB Adrian Peterson vs 49ers ($6,800): Yes, I know we’re currently living in 2017 and Peterson’s prime is behind him. However, he’s still good enough to take advantage of a perfect matchup and he’s got about the best matchup you could hope for Sunday against the Niners. Over the last three games, the Niners have allowed 33.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The next closest is Green Bay with 29.4. Much like the Texans, the Cardinals are also starting a new quarterback thanks to injury and Bruce Arians has already come out saying they will rely on Peterson to move the offense. I like the sound of that.

WR Michael Thomas vs Buccaneers ($7,600): Up to this point Thomas has been a pretty major letdown. I thought that without Brandin Cooks in the offense stealing targets, Thomas would build off his sensational rookie year and establish himself as one of the best receivers in the game. Well, that hasn’t happened up to this point. But things could start getting back on track against a Bucs defense that can’t stop the deep ball to save their life. Tampa Bay has the 29th ranked pass defense in the league (per ROPED) and can’t get after the quarterback for the life of them. This means Drew Brees will have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and pick this defense apart. Get onboard the Michael Thomas train. WOOT WOOT!
Success line: 15 points

TE Zach Ertz vs Broncos ($7,600): Double dipping into the “Broncos can’t cover tight ends” pool with this pick. And why not? Travis Kelce torched the Broncos last week and this week they face arguably the best tight end in football. This will be a big test for Carson Wentz facing off against the “No Fly Zone” so you can bet he’ll be looking to rely upon his favorite target, especially since he’ll likely be always open. Plus, Ertz is on one of my fantasy teams so I’m hoping if I say he’ll have a big game, then he will. Fingers crossed.

Sell

QB Marcus Mariota vs Ravens ($7,800): This is tough for me to say because with Watson now out, Mariota is my starting quarterback, which isn’t awful but he hasn’t been amazing this season. Many had hi pegged as an easy breakout candidate this season and the NFL world seeing all that Mariota can do in his infinite power. Instead, Watson was doing that. Can you tell I’m really upset about this Waston injury? Anyway, the Ravens have the 4th best pass defense in the league right now and have only given up 10.9 points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. I know the QB position is thin this week, but don’t start Mariota.

RB Devonta Freeman vs Panthers ($7,100): There are a few things going against Freeman this week. First, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury that held him out of practice Wednesday. Second, the Panthers have the 5th best run defense in the NFL (per RORD) and have allowed only 15.9 fantasy points to opposing running backs on a weekly basis. And finally, he’s the seventh most expensive running back this week.

WR A.J. Green vs Jaguars ($8,200): I respect this Jaguars defense too much to say in good conscious that you should be starting A.J. Green this week. Right off the bat, he’s the third most expensive wide receiver this week. That makes no sense as the Jaguars are the best pass defense in the NFL by a long shot. Plus, didn’t we just watch the Bengals offense unable to move the ball against the flippin’ Colts AND the offensive line allow three sacks? Yea, that doesn’t instil confidence in me when they’re about to face the best pass rush the NFL has ever seen AND likely the best cornerback duo in the league. Sorry A.J. but I have such little faith in your quarterback being able to get you the ball, I’m making you my sell of the week.
Success line: under 9 points

WR Will Fuller vs Colts ($7,800): There is a very real chance I live to regret ever writing this but I just feel like the Will Fuller bubble was bound to pop and losing Watson was the needle that popped it. Even with Watson there was no way Fuller was going to keep up this level of production. My tummy feeling is that he’s going to have a quite day because Tom Savage can’t get him the football down the field. And that’s where Fuller’s big plays have come. Oh, and he’s the sixth most expensive receiver.

Steals

QB Jacoby Brissett vs Texans ($6,500): In last three weeks only the 49ers have given up more points to opposing quarterbacks. Brissett isn’t bad if he’s given time in the pocket and it’s not like the Colts don’t have weapons.

RB Derrick Henry vs Ravens ($5,200): The Ravens are awful against the run and it’s been a part of Tennessee’s attack that’s been lacking. Henry has had some strong games this season and might be in line for another.

WR Marquise Goodwin vs Cardinals ($4,800): Pierre Garcon is out for the season with a neck injury and the Cardinals defense has struggled against the pass. My guess is Patrick Peterson will line up across from Aldrick Robinson, leaving Goodwin to attack the Cardinals downfield.
Success line: 8 points

WR Russell Shepard vs Falcons ($4,800): It’ll likely be the Funchess/McCaffrey show in Carolina now but don’t be surprised if Shepard starts to see some of the targets the Kelvin Benjamin trade left behind.