Bold Predictions for Week 13: As I like to call it “Upset-a-geddon”

Recapping last week’s picks:

1. The Dallas Cowboys put up at least 20 points.

Outcome: (Grade: D) I give up Cowboys, you are worthless without Ezekiel.

2. Matthew Stafford fails to put up 240 yards for the first time in five games.

Outcome: (Grade: B) With 250 yards, 2 TD’s and 1INT, Matthew Stafford had his worst fantasy performance in 7 weeks, due to this I am grading it a B. he went just 10 yards over my prediction with nary a plethora of TD’s to offset the bereft outing.

3. The Cleveland Browns win this week.

Outcome: (Grade: C). “333” is that an area code, actually it isn’t an area code to anywhere in North America. It is the Browns points in Quarters 1, 2 and 3. Despite all of that, Cleveland still went into the 4^th quarter down by 2 possessions. Then something stupid happened, they scored and suddenly it was a one possession game and I was excited that they might actually have a shot at catching up to the Bengals, the Bengals had third and long and on a hit that Jabrill Peppers gave to a “defenseless receiver who had the ball?!?” and I knew that was the nail in the coffin.

4. The Oakland Raiders (15% owned) are the worst fantasy D/ST this year by a mile. Against Denver they are a top ten team this week.

Outcome: (Grade: A). Obviously it depends on your league specific qualifiers but they had 5 sacks, 1Interception and 14 points allowed in a win. The double win on this is that you can play them again vs. the Giants this weekend!

5. Greg Olsen is a top 5 TE in his triumphant return from IR.

Outcome: (Grade: D). While he did receive 4 targets from QB Cam Newton, he only brought in one for 10 yards.

Week 13 Bold Picks:

1. The Bills beat the Patriots

Background: The Patriots are 5-0 on the road, meet the Bills who are 4-1 at home (only loss was to the New Orleans Saints) and victors over the Kansas City Chiefs. This one is very bold, the Patriots are a 8.5 points favorite in this matchup and just crushed the Miami Dolphins 35-16. Perfect timing for the Bills to sneak up and snatch a victory from a Tom Brady who never sleeps but does occasionally eat a bad kale chip.

2. Minnesota Vikings beat the Atlanta Falcons

Background: The Minnesota Vikings are now 4-1 on the road while the Falcons are 3-2 at home, so much for a home field advantage. The Vikings have won 7 straight and Case Keenum is looking like DeShaun Watson version 2^nd half of the 2017 NFL season. Add to this Latavius Murray and Adam Thielen both playing great lately and I give the Vikings the edge on more talent currently.

3. The Green Bay Packers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Background: Brett Hundley is better than people give him credit for. Since he took over he has faced 9-2 Minnesota, 8-3 New Orleans, 6-5 Detroit, 9-2 Pittsburgh, 6-5 Baltimore and 3-8 Chicago. I have trouble criticizing their backup QB for going 1-0 against teams under .500 and 0-5 against teams over .500. Do you see where I’m going with this? No? Really weak argument? Well Tampa Bay is 4-7. Packers win.

4. The Detroit Lions beat the Baltimore Ravens

Background: Detroit are a quagmire. They came out of the gates firing on all cylinders (winning 3 of their first 4) then they lost 3 straight, then they won 3 straight. They are 4-1 on the road with wins over NYG, Minn, GB (without Rodgers) and Chicago with their loss being to the New Orleans Saints. The Ravens meanwhile are easier to figure out in so much as their schedule has been favorable. Their wins have all been against lesser teams (wins against Cincinatti, Cleveland, Oakland, Miami, Green Bay and Houston (all sub .500) teams and losses to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Minnesota and Tennessee (mostly above .500 teams). Against a quality Detroit team, Baltimore falls.

5. Seattle Seahawks beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

Background: Carson Wentz is good, but so are the Seahawks at home. Philadelphia has not had to cross the Rockies yet for a game and last year when Carson Wentz did, he was 0-1 (Seattle). Carson’s record completion rate is 56.6 (down 8 points from his home completion percent) and he has 10 TD’s with 2 INT’s on the road vs. 18TD’s and 3 INT’s at home. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense has 100 more tackles at home, 50% more tackles for loss and 65% more passes defended. Seattle was at home in Week 4 crushing Indianapolis on Sunday night BUT Philadelphia just crushed Dallas on the road on Sunday night two weeks ago, it should be a fun one but I give the edge to Seattle even without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor.

2017 Report card:

A – 12

B – 10

C – 12

D – 21

Here is how I will be grading my Bold picks this year

A – The bold pick happened as I stated

B – The bold pick did NOT happened as stated but the idea behind it was there (example I predicted Jesse James would have 0 TDs and fewer than 20 yards in week 2, he had 27 yards, the general idea to avoid him in fantasy was present.

C – The bold pick did NOT happen and the overall feel for what occurred had you saying “meh”

D – The bold pick was nowhere near accurate