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NFL Week 12 FanDuel picks: Kareem Hunt gets back to scoring touchdowns

Four buys, sells and steals this week in DFS.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

ARE YOU KIDDING ME CHIEFS? YOU COULDN’T JUST HANDLE THE GIANTS LIKE EVERYONE EXPECTED YOU TO?? I mean, come on, they’re the 30th ranked pass defense in the NFL (per ROPED) and I thought for sure the high flying Alex Smith that we’d seen this season would have torched them for all their worth. Just proves the old adage: Any given Sunday. Ugh.

The Alex Smith debacle particularly irks me because I was going to make Brandin Cooks my buy of the week which would have easily given me the win since he did just annihilate the Raiders. Also glad I didn’t lock the whole NFC North receivers as my sell. Sorry Adam Thielen. Still, Stafford performed better than my success line so, another loss there.

Aaaaaand Kenyan Drake got 1 point against the Bucs. Awesome.

Season record: 11-19

Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.

With all that said, here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.

Buy

QB Matt Ryan vs Buccaneers ($7,600): Matty Ice and the Falcons offense is back everyone! Or, at least that’s what it looked like last week as the Falcons were able to move the ball with ease against the Seahawks. The Buccaneers have the 29th pass defense (per ROPED) and are giving up 18.9 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game so far this season. Personally, I’m hoping for a big, BIG game out of Julio this week so it only stands to reason that Ryan would also enjoy a resurgence in Week 12.

RB Kareem Hunt vs Bills ($7,700): Remember when Kareem Hunt was tearing the league apart and everyone was like “Oh my goodness this Chiefs offense is dynamic and unstoppable”? Man that seems like ages ago. It seems the rookie has hit the fabled rookie wall—or maybe Andy Reid has hit the fabled Andy Reid wall and has been unable to Kool-Aid man through it—as he hasn’t scored a touchdown in the last five games and is only mustered 264 yards on the ground in that time (53 per game). Hopefully that’ll change this weekend as the Bills’ run defense has the worst TD% in the league (meaning they allow a lot of rushing touchdowns).
Success line: 14 points

RB Carlos Hyde vs Seahawks ($6,600): This might seem like a surprise start but not when a) you look at Hyde’s track record against the Seahawks and b) when you read my picks for the week and remember I think the Niners will pull off the upset. So, sticking on #brand here. In his last two matchups against the Hawks, Hyde has rushed for 227 yards on 36 carries and scored two touchdowns. I could see another heavy workload for Hyde this weekend.

WR T.Y. Hilton vs Titans ($7,500): Hilton has been a frustrating fantasy player this season because you never know when he’s about to suck or put together an epic performance. Well, hopefully I’ll be able to call this right for all you who start him as he has a very favorable matchup facing off against the Titans who just got ROASTED by Antonio Brown Thursday night. Now I’m not saying Hilton = Brown or Jacoby Brissett = Ben Roethlisberger but the Titans’ pass defense certainly has their flaws (they’re allowing almost 40 points to opposing wide receiver last three games) and Hilton is talented enough to take advantage.

Sell

QB Drew Brees vs Rams ($7,800): WHAT!? BUT ISN’T THE SAINTS OFFENSE CRUISING RIGHT NOW? Yea they are but it’s not on the arm of Drew Brees. In fact, Brees has thrown for one or no touchdowns in three of his last five games. The Saints are moving because of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara which will surely continue as the Rams just got picked apart by Latavius Murray on the ground. Meanwhile, the Rams have held opposing quarterbacks to just three combined touchdowns at home. Not exactly encouraging for Brees.
Success line: under 15 points

RB Jordan Howard vs Eagles ($7,500): This one pains me to write because I’m going to have to start Howard in the league I care about because I really don’t have much running back talent behind him. Plus, I forgot to change my lineup so I had to eat Orleans Darkwa’s less than stellar Thanksgiving day performance. Anyways, Howard has been underwhelming this season and is facing off against the best run defense in football (per RORD). The Eagles have allowed only nine points to opposing running backs the last three weeks. Yikes.

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs Ravens ($7,600): It’s hard not to buy Hopkins who’s averaging 17.3 points per game but this week the Texans are facing a very tough Ravens defense that does not give up a lot of touchdowns and does get a lot of interceptions. Not exactly music to the ears of anyone relying on Tom Savage to get them the football. Baltimore is second in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers this year. I’d think long and hard before buying Hopkins this week.

TE Zach Ertz vs Bears ($7,600): Gah, another super painful player to sell since guess who my starting tight end is. Ertz is coming off his worst game of the season and ended his four game touchdown streak. The Bears defense might not be great, but they are very good at limiting tight ends, only allowing eight points per game to the position. The Bears are much worse at covering receivers so I would think this could be a big Alshon Jeffery game at the expense of Ertz.

Steals

QB Paxton Lynch vs Raiders ($6,200): Captain Morgan is finally taking over in Denver and facing the worst pass defense in the NFL. Could get you some points for cheap.

RB J.D. McKissic vs 49ers ($5,500): Meet the new running back in Seattle. McKissic is facing off against a 49ers defense that has given up the third most points to opposing running backs this season.
Success line: 8 points

WR Mike Wallace vs Texans ($5,600): Wallace has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and is facing off against a Texans’ pass defense that’s allowed nine touchdowns on the road.

TE Jared Cook vs Broncos ($5,500): Your weekly reminder that the Broncos can’t cover tight ends and Cook is a good tight end. Nothing more to be said here.