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2018 MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

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It Will Get Sunnier In Philadelphia

MLB: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Basic Stats:

Final Record: 66-96

Offense

fangraphs.com

Pitching

fangraphs.com

The Superstar: Aaron Nola

We’ll use the term loosely here, but Aaron Nola is the best fantasy asset on the Phillies. Nola was spectacular in his first full season, sporting a 3.27 FIP, 9.9 K/9 ratio, and earning the W in 18% of all Phillies wins (12). The 2018 season will be Nola’s age-25 season and all peripherals point to a similar level of production with the added upside of the Phillies putting an improved product on the field leading to more Wins. For what it’s worth, Nola recently went 73rd (SP20) in a dynasty draft this off-season, which feels right given his youth and projected performance.

The Sleeper: Nick Williams

Williams had a bit of an up and down minor league career and didn’t receive as much hype as a result. He’s a jack-of-all-trades and should slot right in the middle of the Phillies lineup for the next handful of years. He slashed .288/.338/.473 in 313 ABs last year, which is scary even to his 6-year minor league line of .286/.331/.478. Williams’ performance last year was incredibly encouraging and he should gain steam as we head into fantasy draft season this winter.

The Guy to Avoid: Rhys Hoskins

It was a fun ride, but the HR barrage Hoskins put on in August was a mirage. The power is legit, but we won’t see production like that the rest of his career. The image below is an excellent indicator. Hoskins’ 2017 MLB debut represented his fewest PAs at any level, and he produced more than double his HR/FB% rate during that time. Those taking his 18 HRs in 50 games and projecting anything over 40 need to reel in the expectations. My guess is something near 30 HRs and nothing else helpful in fantasy production to go with it. Hoskins went 31st overall in a recent dynasty draft!!! The hype is not justified.

fangraphs.com

The Prospect To Watch: Jorge Alfaro

In his second cup of coffee, Jorge Alfaro’s results were more in line with a player who spent the last 5 years on all the top prospect lists. Alfaro slashed .318/.360/.514 in a still-too-small sample of 114 PAs. 2018 will be Alfaro’s age-25 season and seeing this production across an entire season could elevate Alfaro to elite fantasy status. Catchers take longer to develop, so even if the numbers take a step back in 2018, Alfaro has a bright future as a fantasy asset.

Be sure to follow on Twitter (@BrianCreagh) for more fantasy advice. Please reach out via email (bcreagh119@gmail.com) for additional questions.