They say good things come to an end. Well, my good thing came to an end after just one week.
Even though I nailed A.J. Green being completely worthless this week facing off against the Jaguars, I missed on Michael Thomas blowing up against the Buccaneers. Instead it was Alvin Kamara who got you all the points in that game. What’s even more killer is that had I gone with my original start of the week, Adrian Peterson, I would have been sitting pretty has he had an excellent game Sunday. You win some, you lose more.
Oh and Marquise Goodwin failed to meet my success line by 0.2 points. The pain is real. So is the losing record.
Season record: 11-13
Here are four guys who I’m buying, selling and who I think will be steals based on their price and their matchups this week on FanDuel. Now, because it’s always fun to has some form of winning and losing, for one player in each group I give a success line, which is the minimum—or maximum for the “sell” guy—number of points they need to score for me to be happy about my choice. These will be the three guys I feel most confident in heading into the weekend.
With all that said, here are names to keep in mind, for good and bad, when you start to create your FanDuel lineups.
QB Jared Goff vs Texans ($8,200): I was debating between Matthew Stafford or Goff but had to stay on #brand. After all, I did just claim that Goff will finish the season a top 7 fantasy quarterback so I clearly I think he’s about to do work on this season. Coming off his best game of his career, Goff is facing a very weak pass defense in Houston who will have a lot of difficulty containing this Rams passing attack. Their 22nd per ROPED Index, but more importantly, rank 27th in total points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Goff is firing on all cylinders and that won’t stop against Houston. Oh, and Rams are home.
RB Aaron Jones vs Bears ($6,900): Clearly Brett Hundley can’t move the Packers offense, no matter how hard Mike McCarthy tries to get him to. So I’d expect the Packers to become a running football team that just hopes their quarterback can make the occasional throw here and there but ultimately is just a feeding mechanism for their backs. There’s no better week to start this new offense as the Bears are really bad at stopping the run, ranking 31st per RORDs. Jones has had some very successful starts when McCarthy believes in him enough to let him carry the rock more than three times.
RB Orleans Darkwa vs 49ers ($5,300): How. Just, how. Yes I’m the nationals spokesperson for Orleans Darkwa Inc but still, this is a travesty and basically straight robbery. The Giants are going up against the 49ers. The. Fourty. Nine. Ers. This is a team that has given up 30+ points to opposing running backs the last three weeks. This is a team that just gave up 159 yards to 32-year-old Adrian Peterson. Sure Wayne Gallman had a good game last week against the Rams but hey, guess what, there’s enough playing time to go around against THE WORST RUN DEFENSE IN THE NFL. I don’t know how I can’t lock this up. I feel like I’m stealing candy from a baby.
Success line: 12 points
Orleans Darkwa currently costs $5.3k on FanDuel. Giants are playing Niners. SF has given up 30+ points to opposing backs last 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/SU5Mffd88g— Pete Rogers (@petemrogers) November 9, 2017
TE Rob Gronkowski vs Broncos ($8,100): I know I know, I keep telling you to start tight ends against the Broncos but that’s just because I keep bring right. Bet you didn’t see that sass coming did you? Gronk is by far and away the most expensive tight end this weekend but it’s completely well deserved. The Patriots are going to come into Denver and exploit that matchup for all it’s worth. And spoiler alert, it’s going to be worth quite a bit.
QB Tom Brady vs Broncos ($8,500): I know this might seem counter-intuitive after I just said literally 17 words ago that Gronk was a must start this week but something tells me this could be a very average performance out of the greatest quarterback of all time (no biases here). Brady has always had some difficulty taking on the Broncos in Mile High and while the offense will be starting Brock Osweiler, their defense is still very legit and still has the likes of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris and, most importantly, Von Miller. Brady is the second most expensive quarterback this week and I’m just not 100% confident he’ll live up to that billing.
RB Todd Gurley vs Texans ($9,600): Like many big name sells I’ve made in the past, this revolves around price. Gurley is the most expensive running back this week and is going up against a Texans defense that actually ranks 8th in RORDs and is the best in the league at limiting opposing running backs (allowing on 15.1 total points per game). But here’s the real reason Gurley is on this list: Le’Veon Bell is two hundred dollars cheaper and playing the Colts. Leonard Fournette is almost a thousand dollars cheaper and is playing the Chargers. There are much better matchups out there for cheaper. Let’s be daring!
Success line: under 12 points
WR T.Y. Hilton vs Steelers ($7,500): Don’t let Hilton’s big game last week fool you into thinking that a) he’s back to consistent fantasy relevance or b) Jacoby Brissett is a great starting quarterback. Prior to his big game against Houston, Hilton had scored no more than 4 points the last three games. Not exactly elite fantasy production. It won’t get easier for him either as he’s playing the second best pass defense in the NFL, one that’s allowed only 18.7 points to opposing wide receivers.
WR Stefon Diggs vs Washington ($7,000): I really want Diggs to have a big game as he’s currently starting for me in the league that I care about. However, it’s taking him some time to get back to the dominate receiver he was prior to his injury. To make matters worse, he likely will be drawing the Josh Norman matchup which isn’t great for fantasy numbers. I’m struggling to trust him this week on my fantasy team, there’s no need to put him on your roster and stress as well.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Jets ($6,100): THE FITZMAGIC REVENGE GAME! The Jets pass defense is suspect and is eighth worst in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Success line: 20 points
RB James White vs Broncos ($4,600): In the past, the Patriots have mitigated the Broncos pass rush by getting the ball out of Tom’s hands quick and more often than not, into the hands of James White.
WR Kendall Wright vs Packers ($5,000): It’s daring to pick a Bears’ receiver to do anything but the Packers have allowed the third most points to opposing receivers the last three weeks.
TE O.J. Howard vs Jets ($5,100): The Jets have struggled to cover tight ends this season meaning there’s a good chance Howard could find the end zone.