Just a few days ago you understood exactly where you stood. Jordy Nelson was a top five WR. Davante Adams was a great second option to have. If you landed him as your WR2, you were very happy with life. Ty Montgomery was not getting huge rushing yards, but he was getting good carries and valuable targets in the passing game. Aaron Rodgers was a stud quarterback getting you great points every week.
Then things changed. Now, if you had Rodgers, you are looking weighing the options of picking up Eli Manning or Jared Goff from the waiver wire. Not a great spot to find yourself six weeks into what was a good season. Even if you did not lose Rodgers, you might have a number of other players whose fantasy values are now up in the air . Here's a look at what to expect.
So, the first thing to examine is Brett Hundley. Hundely has been groomed for the last few years. The thought is that he would be a good backup and maybe trade bait. Now he is going to get his very first start. Not much to take from last week in Minnesota. Getting put into a game cold, with only second-team reps all week, on the road, against s top tier defense... not exactly the shallow end of the pool.
Expect Mike McCarthy to coach up Hundley better this week when he is the clear starter. There will also be a different game plan. Hundley only targeted tight ends once in the game. There were eight targets to running backs (Aaron Jones - 4, Ty Montgomery - 3, Aaron Ripkowski - 1). There were some attempts to set up a few screens, but they did not work well as the timing was a problem. Hundely continued to throw downfield against the Vikings. He had 19 targets to either Adams or Nelson. 19 of his 33 targets to these two players (57.6%). When he is more confident the ball should be spread around better.
All The Targets
Montgomery and Jones should get good carries. With a young quarterback it would seem likely that they will continue to keep the running game going and set up the play action pass. Tight ends should get more involved, but running backs are going to remain a key part of the passing game as well. Expect that Montgomery will still get good touches and be a high-end RB2. Jones should get some touches each week, but is only a Flex in a deep league.
The top two wide receivers should retain much of their value. Nelson and Adams were the two people Hundley seemed to be looking to in his tense debut. Expect the Hundley will still look to them as he moves forward. The surprise was that Randall Cobb was only got three targets. With the Vikings' experienced top two cornerbacks, it seemed likely that the Packers would be planning to attack with the WR3, but Cobb was rarely used. The biggest issue will be that Hundley does not have the accuracy that Rodgers does. Jordy Nelson had been catching 67.8% of his targets coming into the game and only caught 60% against the Vikings. Adams had been catching 60.5% of his targets and only caught 50% in this game. This was the first game with eight or more targets where he did not catch more than 50%. Look to see Nelson as a low-end WR1 and Adams as a low-end WR2. Cobb is only a Flex going forward.
Do not look to start either Lance Kendricks or Martellus Bennett until we see something better. Bennett has too many drops. Bennett had the only target from Hundley. Prior to being injured, Rodgers threw three passes to Bennett. That is three of his four passes. You need to see something before starting them.