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UNU's Picks: NFL Game Picks for Week 4

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This post originally appeared on the UNU blog

Are you ready for some football?!

Thanks to everyone who has participated in the UNU Football Swarms so far! Week 3 was a crazy one in the NFL, and the Swarm weathered the storm, posting a 7-8-1 record. Some highly paid experts did not fare so well, as 5 out of 8 CBS experts failed to pick even 1 in 3 games correctly Against the Spread and none did better than 8 out of 16. 

On to Week 4....

The results below are sorted by predicted Confidence and then by Brainpower. As always, I would encourage you to watch each games replay for insight into how the Swarm arrived at its prediction. For example, lower brainpower could reflect a toss-up between the two teams, or it could mean that the Swarm was torn between High and Low Confidence in the pick. 

You might also note that the Swarm picked many favorites this week. We believe this might have something to do with the way questions are formatted, so we will continue to fine-tune based on your feedback. 

On that note, we continue to refijne our understanding of Confidence and Brainpower, and so you'll notice that only 4 games were certified with High Confidence. The fifth High Confidence game showed too much support for the Jaguars to be a full recommendation.  And, of course, knowing when to stay away from a game is important, and the Swarm deemed 3 games "too close to call" this week.

Here’s a look at the replay from this week's most confident Swarm. As you can see, the Swarm seems to be content to ride Denver ( and that incredible defense ) until it proves unwise. Last week, the Swarm was happy to take Denver and the points, and this week the Swarm is not afraid to pick the Broncos on the road against an inconsistent Jameis Winston.

via GIPHY

This should go without saying, but if you’re going to bet on football – or anything else, for that matter – be smart about it. UNU has a pretty good track record, but football is notoriously difficult to predict, and even more so this early in the season.

Without further ado, here are the Swarm’s picks for Week 3 of the NFL season…

HIGH CONFIDENCE, BP over 75%
Denver -3 vs TAMPA BAY
Denver -3 with High Confidence
Brainpower 82%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222764

Carolina -3 vs ATLANTA
Carolina -3 with High Confidence
Brainpower 80%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222758

Dallas -3 vs SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas -3 with High Confidence
Brainpower 76%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222770

Detroit -3 vs CHICAGO
Detroit -3 with High Confidence
Brainpower 73%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222748

HIGH CONFIDENCE, but with low BP

Indianapolis -3 at JACKSONVILLE
Colts -3 with High Confidence
Brainpower 64%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222746


LOW CONFIDENCE

SAN DIEGO -4 vs New Orleans
New Orleans +4 with Low Confidence
Branpower 78%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222768

NEW ENGLAND -6  vs Buffalo
Patriots -6 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 73%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222750

WASHINGTON -7.5 vs Cleveland
Cleveland +7.5 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 71%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222752

ARIZONA -7.5 vs Los Angeles
Arizone -7.5 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 71%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222766

Seattle -3 at NEW YORK JETS
Seattle -3 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 70%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222760

MINNESOTA .4.5 vs New York Giants
Minnesota -4.5 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 66%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222776

CINCINNATI (-7.0) vs. Miami
Bengals -7 with Low Confidence
Brainpower 63%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222745


TOO CLOSE TO CALL

PITTSBURGH -6 vs Kansas City
Too close to Call
Brainpower 66%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222773

BALTIMORE -3 vs Oakland
Too Close to Call
Brainpower 57%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222754

HOUSTON -5.5 vs Tennessee
Too Close to Call
Brainpower 54%
https://go.unu.ai/r/222762