Hitting stack 1
Jose Berrios was one of my "NA" stashes this year in my Yahoo league, but he has dramatically underperformed my expectations. 26% of his opponents at bats are ending with a 100+ mph batted ball, way below the MLB average of 15.7%. Batted balls hit 100+ mph have batting averages of .630 with an OPS of 1.950, for some perspective. Berrios is allowing a walk rate closing in on 13% against both lefties and righties and has a miserable 6.25 FIP, with a 7.89 FIP against righties. He's giving up a .340/.444/.685 line to RHB, an OPS against of 1.129. He's been both wild and getting hit hard, and does not appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. While that could turn at any moment, we haven't seen signs yet.
Yoenis Cespedes has the best numbers in the Mets lineup vs RHP with a 130 wRC+ and .261 ISO. Curtis Granderson has a 112 wRC+, .240 ISO and a 13% walk rate vs RHP and should be a good bet to get on base. 2 hole hitter Asdrubal Cabrera has hit RHP to a well above average level for a SS with a 109 wRC+, about 20% better than the average SS, and it comes with a .200 ISO.
Hitting stack 2
Another good matchup that stands out is the Marlins get a park upgrade in Citizens Bank Park and face one of the least effective lefties in baseball, Adam Morgan. Morgan has a 5.73 ERA, 5.09 FIP and is allowing a .304/.342/.576 line to RHB with a 5.59 FIP.
Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800) may be back in the starting lineup tonight, and if he is, I will be rostering him. Stanton has a 145 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs LHP this year. Marcell Ozuna ($3,100) has also hit LHP to a high level with a 147 wRC+ and .319 ISO vs LHP and is priced affordably. Martin Prado ($3,200) and his 186 wRC+ vs LHP is fueled largely by an unsustainable .463 BABIP, but his 13.4% walk rate vs lefties and ability to hit line drives and singles bodes well at the top of the lineup for being on base when Stanton and Ozuna come up behind him.