A high upside, lower cost play that I'm targeting at pitcher is Jon Gray ($8,300) vs the Brewers. The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate vs RHP at 25.2% and are a bottom third offense by wRC+ at 90. Gray has a 25% strikeout rate and will be getting a park upgrade on the road away from Coors Field. Gray is somewhat risky as he has a 4.3 ERA away from Coors with a 4.12 FIP, but has big strikeout upside today against an offense with a ton of swing and miss.
Jake Arrieta ($11,000) also has a very good matchup. The Padres are right behind the Brewers with the 2nd highest K% vs RHP at 24.6% and they have a bottom 5 offense vs RHP by wRC+. Arrieta will get a park upgrade in PetCo and brings a 2.75 ERA, 3.33 FIP and a 24.5% strikeout rate into today's start, but that's not the whole story. He's struggled since July 1 with an ERA of 4.09, FIP of 4.51 and a strikeout rate that has dropped to 19%. Maybe it's just a slump, but he's well past the strikeout rate stabilization point with 211 batters faced since July 1 and there might be legitimate reason to worry. Either way, the Padres are a good team to face to get back on the right track.
For hitters, Freddie Freeman ($3,800) gets a large park upgrade in Arizona and faces Archie Bradley, who has allowed an awful .324/.424/.563 line to LHB this year with a 6.56 FIP. Freeman has a 139 wRC+ and .272 ISO vs RHP this year and is one of my favorite plays for today based on the opposing pitcher and park.
Lefty crusher Nelson Cruz ($3,900) faces below average lefty CC Sabathia. Any time Cruz faces an average or below average lefty, I generally try to get him in my lineup. Cruz has a 168 wRC+ and .342 ISO vs LHP this year and ranks best in baseball with a 186 wRC+ vs LHP dating back to the start of last season.